Bush approval ratings down to 50% in January

[Donutboy 0]

Poll Bolsters Bush on Terrorism but Finds Doubts on Economy

By ROBIN TONER and JANET ELDER

Published: January 18, 2004

President Bush begins his campaign year with Americans voicing strong support for his handling of the war against terrorism, but many doubting his economic and domestic policies, according to the latest New York Times/CBS News poll.

Fewer than one in five people said their tax burden had been eased by Mr. Bush, who has made tax cuts the centerpiece of his economic program. His latest domestic initiatives, unveiled in the run-up to the State of the Union message on Tuesday, got only a lukewarm response, with 58 percent saying that building a permanent space station on the Moon was not worth the risks and costs.

Moreover, the support Mr. Bush gained after the capture of Saddam Hussein last month has largely dissipated. His overall approval rating now stands at 50 percent, comparable to President Bill Clinton's 47 percent in January 1996. Mr. Bush remains a polarizing figure in a sharply divided country, with 9 in 10 Republicans approving of his performance, and only 1 in 4 of the Democrats.

Despite those vulnerabilities, which the Democratic presidential candidates are busily trying to exploit, Mr. Bush retains a powerful advantage on national security. Sixty-eight percent, including majorities of both Democrats and independents, gave him high marks for the campaign against terrorism, and 68 percent said the Bush administration's policies have made the United States safer from terrorist attacks. Sixty-four percent said they considered him a strong leader.

"He demonstrated a maturity after 9/11, responding in a positive and determined way to bring the country onto a steady keel," said George House, a 72-year-old Democrat in Sigourney, Iowa. Mr. House, who was reinterviewed after the poll, added that he still had doubts about the war with Iraq.

Such assessments could set a high bar for Mr. Bush's Democratic challengers, who are still largely unknown, even among Democratic primary voters, many strategists say. "People wonder whether the Democrats will be as aggressive as Bush in keeping the country safe," said Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster.

Already, credibility as commander in chief has emerged as a major issue in the battle for the Democratic nomination. Many Democrats in rival campaigns have argued that Howard Dean, who has led in the polls for most of the primary season, is unlikely to pass that test on national security, because of his opposition to the war in Iraq and his lack of foreign policy experience.

The Times/CBS News poll was conducted Monday through Thursday by telephone with 1,022 adults nationwide, and has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus three percentage points.

While the Times poll was a road map for an intensely divided electorate, it also highlighted Mr. Bush's strengths. His approval rating is highest among those ages 30 to 44; those younger and older are more divided. Whites approve of his performance by 56 to 41 percent; in contrast, 70 percent of blacks disapprove of the job he is doing, while just 17 percent approve, the poll found.

He also has a big edge among those who say religion is extremely or very important to them; 56 percent of that group say they approve of Mr. Bush and 39 percent say they disapprove.

His approval rating among men and women is about the same, suggesting he is addressing the historic Republican vulnerability of a gender gap. And he has a substantial edge among married women.

One of the president's signature accomplishments on the domestic front — the passage of a Medicare overhaul with new coverage for prescription drugs — has yet to register much with the voters, the poll suggests. Twenty-nine percent said they thought the administration had made "a lot" or "some" progress on prescription drug relief. Fifty-four percent said the administration had made little or no progress.

For all of Mr. Bush's strengths, the poll shows the potential for a competitive election. When asked whether Mr. Bush had done more to unite the country or divide it, the public was split — 43 percent said he had brought Americans together, 44 percent said he had divided them.

When given a choice between an unnamed Democrat and Mr. Bush, 43 percent of the registered voters polled said they would vote for Mr. Bush, while 45 percent said they would vote for the Democrat.

The survey found the nation still in an anxious state economically, despite the recent rebound in economic growth and the improvement in the stock market. The economy, jobs and unemployment led the list of most important issues for voters, with health care and education not far behind.

Administration officials argue that by almost every major measure — save jobs — the economy is in a strong recovery, and that employment will soon catch up. In fact, more people now rate the state of the economy as "very" or "fairly" good — 54 percent, compared with 41 percent who gave it that rating a year ago. Similarly, people are more optimistic about where the economy is headed — 34 percent said they believed it was getting better and 26 percent worse, another sharp turnaround from last year.

But many in the poll still worried. "They say unemployment is down, but that's because a lot of people's unemployment ran out, so they're not listed anymore," said Ellen Diliello, a Republican retiree in Preble, N.Y. Thirty-nine percent said they remained worried that they or someone in their household would lose a job in the coming year.

Moreover, many Americans say their own economic circumstances have not improved much. A majority said they were having a hard time keeping up with their bills. Only 19 percent said their tax burden had been eased by the administration's policies, while 32 percent said their taxes had gone up and 44 percent said the policies had not affected them one way or the other.

Mr. Bush argues that the tax cuts are spurring economic growth and must be made permanent. But only 27 percent in the poll said they believed the tax cuts were good for the economy, while 17 percent said the tax cuts were bad and 51 percent said the cuts had not made much of a difference.

The perception that Mr. Bush's economic policies favor the affluent and big business remains; 64 percent said they thought "big business" had too much influence on the Bush administration, while 57 percent said the administration's policies favored the rich, as opposed to the middle class and the poor.

"It's a Republican theory that if you help large corporations, it should filter down to everyone else, but it takes too long, and sometimes it just doesn't," said Patricia Domingo, a 58-year-old Democrat in Byron, Calif.

In contrast, Ardis Barton, a Republican businessman in Earth, Texas, argued, "The tax cuts were needed and he got them through. The economy is improving, and that proves he made the right choice on the tax cuts."

Mr. Bush's proposal to overhaul immigration policies, announced this month, is getting a skeptical response. Two thirds of those polled said immigrants who entered the country illegally should not be allowed to stay and work in the United States for three years, as Mr. Bush proposes. There was little enthusiasm for increasing levels of immigration at all, with a plurality saying immigration should be decreased.

The survey also found divisions over Mr. Bush's proposal for returning to the Moon by 2020, and eventually using a lunar base as a launching pad to Mars. Forty percent said the nation was spending too much on space exploration programs, while 17 percent said the nation was spending too little. Forty-eight percent said they would favor the United States' sending astronauts to explore Mars, while 47 percent said they would oppose it.

And 58 percent said building a space station on the Moon was not worth the risks and costs, while 35 percent said it was.

Despite the widespread support for Mr. Bush's handling of terrorism, there are also doubts about his handling of foreign affairs in general. Forty-seven percent in the survey said they approved of the way he was handling foreign affairs, while 45 percent disapproved.

Moreover, half the public said the result of the war in Iraq was not worth the loss of life and other costs. Forty-nine percent said Mr. Bush was too quick to get the United States involved in a war there, while 35 percent said the timing had been about right and 13 percent said the administration was too slow to act.

The public is also divided over Mr. Bush's current handling of the situation in Iraq, with 48 percent approving and 46 percent disapproving. In addition, 6 in 10 of those polled said the Bush administration had been hiding information about the existence of weapons of mass destruction; only 27 percent said the administration had told the public most of what it knows.

[Donutboy 0]

"When given a choice between an unnamed Democrat and Mr. Bush, 43 percent of the registered voters polled said they would vote for Mr. Bush, while 45 percent said they would vote for the Democrat."

A majority of "swing voters", those who don't identify with either party, now have more people who "don't approve" of Bush's policies than of those who "approve. Each side has an equal number of supporters and the swing voters always cdetermine the final election results..... except when the Supreme Court decides for them. Bush's election in 2004 is more and more in trouble. Notice that more people now support an unnamed Democrat over Bush?

[Tiger Al 0]

It will take a major tragedy to occur so Bush can instill enough fear in Americans that will sufficiently anesthetize the voters to elect him in 2004.

[CarolinaTiger 0]

unfortunately for the dems, i'm pretty sure they'll have to actually name their candidate...and that's where the rub comes in.

i'm surprised that stat isn't more in favor of the 'unnamed dem'.

[Donutboy 0]

unfortunately for the dems, i'm pretty sure they'll have to actually name their candidate...and that's where the rub comes in.

i'm surprised that stat isn't more in favor of the 'unnamed dem'.

It doesn't bode well for Dubya when a majority of voters would select an unnamed Democrat over him in the November elections though, does it?

[Tiger Al 0]

It doesn't bode well for Dubya when a majority of voters would select an unnamed Democrat over him in the November elections though, does it?

That's what I thought when I first saw that poll. We have an endearing name for that candidate: ABBA-Anybody But Bush Again!

So, Abba's polling higher than the monkey boy. Cool!

[DKW 86 7,899]

It doesn't bode well for Dubya when a majority of voters would select an unnamed Democrat over him in the November elections though, does it?

That's what I thought when I first saw that poll. We have an endearing name for that candidate: ABBA-Anybody But Bush Again!

So, Abba's polling higher than the monkey boy. Cool!

Sorry guys but the last time I looked, there wasnt a none of the above on the ballot sheet. The problem for the Dems is that HAVE to name a guy. So far, everyone they name is very beatable. The election is not now, but in November. The economy is gaining steam. And as Carville said, "It's the economy stupid."

[Donutboy 0]

It doesn't bode well for Dubya when a majority of voters would select an unnamed Democrat over him in the November elections though, does it?

That's what I thought when I first saw that poll. We have an endearing name for that candidate: ABBA-Anybody But Bush Again!

So, Abba's polling higher than the monkey boy. Cool!

Sorry guys but the last time I looked, there wasnt a none of the above on the ballot sheet. The problem for the Dems is that HAVE to name a guy. So far, everyone they name is very beatable. The election is not now, but in November. The economy is gaining steam. And as Carville said, "It's the economy stu[pid."

Yep!! The economy gained 1000 jobs in December alone!! With momentum like that, it's hard to argue your point!!

[Tiger Al 0]

Sorry guys but the last time I looked, there wasnt a none of the above on the ballot sheet. The problem for the Dems is that HAVE to name a guy. So far, everyone they name is very beatable. The election is not now, but in November. The economy is gaining steam. And as Carville said, "It's the economy stu[pid."

Point is, 45% of people polled will vote for anyone but Bush. 43% polled will vote for no one but Bush. That leaves 12% to decide. That's the Dean factor!!!

[Tigermike 3,711]

Point is, 45% of people polled will vote for anyone but Bush. 43% polled will vote for no one but Bush. That leaves 12% to decide. That's the Dean factor!!!

And if Dean looses in the Iowa caucus tonight what will happen to

the Dean factor!!!

?

[Donutboy 0]

Point is, 45% of people polled will vote for anyone but Bush. 43% polled will vote for no one but Bush. That leaves 12% to decide. That's the Dean factor!!!

And if Dean looses in the Iowa caucus tonight what will happen to

the Dean factor!!!

?

My guess would be one of the other candidates would then become the "unnamed Democrat." Just a guess!! You should be rooting for Dean, TM. He's supposedly the candidate with the least chance of beating Dubya. I'd swear that I've seen actual glee in some of the conservative posts this morning when talking about Dean possibly not winning the Iowa caucuses. You'd almost think the Republicans were afraid of Dean.

BTW, I don't think Dean can be counted out, even if he fails to win the party nomination. You could still see a Democratic ticket with Dean as the VP nominee.

[Jenny AU-92 0]

And a poll conducted by the New York Times. TOTALLY unbiased polling there, I am sure.

[AUBoggs 0]

And a poll conducted by the New York Times. TOTALLY unbiased polling there, I am sure.

Why, I bet Bush is planning the invasion of the NY Times office building as we speak. That might even be the major tragedy Tiger Al has predicted!

[CarolinaTiger 0]

Point is, 45% of people polled will vote for anyone but Bush. 43% polled will vote for no one but Bush. That leaves 12% to decide. That's the Dean factor!!!

sincere question, TA:

is that really the way the question is asked and what it means?

'will you vote for anyone but bush'?

i didn't interpret or understand it to mean that at all.

ct

[Donutboy 0]

Point is, 45% of people polled will vote for anyone but Bush. 43% polled will vote for no one but Bush. That leaves 12% to decide. That's the Dean factor!!!

sincere question, TA:

is that really the way the question is asked and what it means?

'will you vote for anyone but bush'?

i didn't interpret or understand it to mean that at all.

ct

CT, that was as quoted in the poll results. Bush would get 43% against an unnamed Democrat and the unnamed Democrat would get 45%. Click on the original link. Bush gets losing marks in all but his handling of the war in Iraq.

[Donutboy 0]

And a poll conducted by the New York Times. TOTALLY unbiased polling there, I am sure.

Well, you expect us to take everything Fox News puts out as fact. You didn't seem to have a problem with this poll when it showed Bush with an approval rating of 60% after Saddam Husein's capture. Maybe it's the results you don't like instead of the source. As I pointed out after Hussein's capture, voters and poll numbers are fickle. It's always what have you done for me lately. Surely you didn't expect the poll push that Bush got in December to last until November. Remember that his approval rating had dropped below 50% prior to Hussein's capture. They're just normalizing back out.

[Tiger Al 0]

Point is, 45% of people polled will vote for anyone but Bush. 43% polled will vote for no one but Bush. That leaves 12% to decide. That's the Dean factor!!!

sincere question, TA:

is that really the way the question is asked and what it means?

'will you vote for anyone but bush'?

i didn't interpret or understand it to mean that at all.

ct

"When given a choice between an unnamed Democrat and Mr. Bush, 43 percent of the registered voters polled said they would vote for Mr. Bush, while 45 percent said they would vote for the Democrat."

Since 'the Democrat' is as yet unnamed, it sounds to me like 45% are saying anyone but Bush. Does that mean literally ANYONE? No. But, within the context of this election it does.

[AUBoggs 0]

Has anyone seen a poll with either Dean/Kerry/Edwards/Clark beating Bush? I havn't so in the context of the election does that mean democratic voters would rather vote for someone other than than the 4 guys listed above?

Polls are fickle but I gotta believe the Dems will get behind whoever wins the nomination and we will be in for another nail-biter this November.

[Donutboy 0]

Has anyone seen a poll with either Dean/Kerry/Edwards/Clark beating Bush? I havn't so in the context of the election does that mean democratic voters would rather vote for someone other than than the 4 guys listed above?

Polls are fickle but I gotta believe the Dems will get behind whoever wins the nomination and we will be in for another nail-biter this November.

I tend to agree with your assessment. Both parties can count on their core when the chips are on the table. The swing voters who decided(?) the last election will also be the one's who are courted heaviest this fall. Most of the Democrats are now appealing to their base for their parties nomination. Look for their agenda to swing towards the middle after coronation. Bush has no "real" competition for his party's nomination and has already started his swing back to the middle; immigration policy, MLK wreath, Moon and Mars, etc....

BTW, there's one thing the Democrats have going for them this Fall. Ralph Nader won't be running this Fall as a Green Party candidate and the three million voters who supported him should vote for the Democratic candidate this Fall.