My thoughts on next year...

[townhallsavoy 2]

Wanna wager that Arkansas will win no more than 8 games?

That's a dangerous bet. I understand the passing game may be weak but they do have a running back that has been called "the best since Bo." You really want to bet against him? I personally think McFadden would have put up the same, if not better, numbers than Reggie Bush if he were in the Pac 10.

[townhallsavoy 2]

so here's the rebuttal to arkansas' need to throw the football to win big games (or at the very least that they could accomplish that goal with casey dick):

at auburn: mustain 7/10, 87 yards, 1 td

vs. alabama: mustain 7/22, 97 yards, 1 td, 3 ints

at vandy: mustain 13/20, 224 yards, 3 tds, 1 int

vs. ole miss: mustain 12/15, 157 yards, 1 td

vs. tennessee: dick 10/15, 154 yards, 1 td

at south carolina: dick 11/19, 228 yards, 1 td, 1 int

vs. ole miss: dick 2/3, 48 yards, 1 td

at msu: dick 8/17, 112 yards, 2 tds, 1 int

dick was clearly the better performer in every game until they ran into the lsu/florida/wisconsin trifecta. i think the only reason mustain didn't look worse in those games is because: he didn't get a chance. arkansas won last season without ever pushing the ball downfield. ever. they can do it just as easily this season. it's also interesting to note that arkansas' lack of a downfield passing game against lsu (they threw for 60 yards) didn't stop them from rolling up 300 yards rushing (no kidding). they can run on anyone, stacked box or no.

also, it's a TOTAL cop out to just point to the record dick had and say that's proof of how good he was or wasn't. look who he played: dick beat south carolina on the road, tennnessee at home, msu on the road, lost to lsu at home, lost to florida in the title game, and wisconsin in a bowl. seriously? there's only one team in that group that didn't win 8 games (and 3 of them had 11+ each). at the same time, mustain beat an 11-win auburn team... who also happens to be the only other team he even PLAYED against with a winning record. that's 5 to 1 for those keeping score.

AND it should be noted that dick was as effective as mustain ever was at putting up passing numbers. in the team's first 7 sec games, mustain put up two 100+ yard passing games (against vandy and ole miss); dick put up three (two of which came in his biggest wins: at south carolina and vs. tenn).

you can write arkansas off if you want; i'm just not buying it. the passing game will AT LEAST be as effective as it was last year, and they still have the best running back in the country and a backup that could start at about 9-11 other sec schools. that team's going to be dangerous with mcfadden and jones, and they're going to post huge, huge rushing numbers no matter what other teams do to try and slow them down (ala lsu).

as for the rest: woodson, brohm (sp?), the two colts, and a booty are the best qbs in the country this year. olsen out at ucla is close. justin harrell was overrated. tough. but overrated. saban won't choke... bama just doesn't have the talent. the defense is going to get worse before it gets better (happened at lsu as well) and the offense still has no rushing threat. O is a cartoon character and the worst coach in the conference. he loses, and he manages to lose without class.

finally, uga bottomed out because they didn't have an offensive identity. the fact that they roared back shows that they DID have good leadership. teams don't come back from the dead (losing to vandy and kentucky is the dead) without it. they're going to miss a lot of the guys that left that team, and stafford is going to hit the wall. he's not like greene, who was different than most sophs b/c he took care of the ball like gold and used all his playmakers. stafford is a force the action kind of guy that's going to get burned trying to make plays... just like last year.

I've got to disagree about Booty. USC is LOADED. I don't think Booty and Cox are too far apart in the talent area. If Cox was throwing to Dwayne Jarett, Steve Smith, Patrick Turner, and Vidal Hazelton, he would have had just as good a year. Booty was terribly inconsistent. He made Michigan look silly but he also made some bad decisions throughout the season.

[boyjeddah 1]

Recruiting's finished. Spring Training has ended. I think it's time to do the ritual predictions for next season.

Here's ten things I see shaping up next year.

1) Georgia is the sleeper team of the year. They showed signs of brilliance and signs of pathetic-ness last season. I think with Stafford getting experience and Richt's coaching, Georgia comes out in the end with the SEC Championship. I think they have a great opener against Oklahoma St and it's at home. Follow up with South Carolina and two decent victories equals a lot of confidence. They'll get two losses against Florida and Tennessee but...

2) A messy SEC. No SEC team will have less than two losses. Lot of teams have big time question marks. In fact, EVERY team has big time question marks. Auburn loses four O-Linemen, LSU loses four 1st Round draft picks (including QB), Arkansas had a messy off-season and loses some key defensive players, Florida loses 9 defensive starters and their starting QB, Georgia loses more than half of their defensive front seven, Tennessee has had injuries and loses key WR and key D-lineman, South Carolina is still young, Ole Miss is still young and without a quality QB, Kentucky may be a sleeper but probably not, and Alabama has a new head coach.

3) Florida loses 3 games. Florida won the SEC last year with their defense. Without turnovers, they would have lost against LSU. They shut out Auburn's offense but still managed to lose. They needed three blocked kicks to beat South Carolina. Now take away 9 guys from the defense. This means Tim Tebow will have to lead an offense that is potent enough to win games while the defense matures. However, Tim Tebow has never had to face a team that has an entire gameplan devoted to stopping him. Florida has to go to LSU, will lose to Auburn, and lose a shocker against South Carolina.

4) Les Miles' job loses its security. He's 22-4 right now. He'll only be 34-6 at the end of next year with another SEC West title. However, LSU loses to Bama and a shocker against South Carolina. There are plenty of critics out there that say Miles has had tremendous success because of Nick Saban. I, personally, disagree. I think Les Miles is a decent, not great, but efficient coach. I don't think he'll ever win the NC but LSU has had a lot of success over the past two years, which can't be done only through talent. However, I think he gets out-coached against Bama and loses a "game LSU should have won" against South Carolina. I also think he'll get a win against Auburn but it'll be a very close game where the critics say "Auburn should have won that one."

5) Bama beats LSU. It's going to be Nick Saban's coming out party. Bama's not going to have a great year but this is the game that will make the Crimson faithful smile. It'll also keep them talking trash for an entire year. They get LSU at home and the mild-mannered Nick Saban is going to be pumped up for this one.

6) Nick Saban doesn't turn things around in one year. I see Alabama going 8-4 with one big victory against LSU. They lose bad to Georgia, close to FSU, upset by Ole Miss and blown out by Auburn. Tennessee has to go to Tuscaloosa and loses the game instead of Bama winning it, sort of like how LSU lost to Florida last year; Florida didn't exactly "win." They'll also lose their bowl game. Bama is sent into the offseason with high hopes for the second year.

7) Auburn handles its tough schedule very well. Two years ago, Auburn had a good argument for being the best team in the SEC. A close loss to LSU kept them out of the SEC title game and a similar situation will happen again this year. Four straight home games keeps Auburn healthy and hungry when they enter the Swamp. Another classic takes place as Auburn beats the overrated Gators. Phase 2 of the away game schedule gives Auburn an impressive win against the Razorbacks. However, LSU wins a close, possible overtime game at home. Auburn also loses for the second straight year to Georgia, who will be turning heads for most of the second half of the season and backing into the SEC title game because...

8) Florida loses a thrilling game to South Carolina, which costs them their shot at the SEC title. This time, South Carolina doesn't choke. They make the field goals and put a lockdown on Tim Tebow. Florida's young defense will have a tough time against Spurrier's vaunting offense. Everything's OK because it's a rebuilding year.

9) Georgia whomps LSU in the SEC championship. I'm talking 30 points. Georgia will enter the SEC title game in a state of euphoria. They're not expecting much from next season, especially after last season. The title game will get them pumped up. LSU won't be as prepared or as excited as the Bulldogs, setting up for a Bulldog title.

10) Sylvestor Croom loses his job. Miss St has been awful ever since he arrived. Not much has changed and his attitude each week is worse than Mike Shula's, when he was at Alabama. I think he'll announce his resignation about 2/3's of the way through.

Those are my thoughts...

Here's my predicted final standings and the losses:

SEC East

Georgia, 10-2 losses to Florida, Tenn

Florida 9-3 losses to Auburn, LSU, South Carolina

Tennessee 9-3 losses to Florida, Alabama, Arkansas

South Carolina 8-4 losses to Georgia, Tennessee, Ark, Kentucky

Kentucky 6-6 losses to Georgia, Tenn, Florida, LSU, Arkansas, (Louisville)

Vanderbilt

SEC West

LSU, 10-2 losses to Alabama, South Carolina

Auburn, 10-2 losses to Georgia, LSU

Alabama, 8-4 losses to Georgia, Auburn, Ole Miss (Florida St)

Arkansas 9-3, losses to LSU, Auburn, Alabama

Ole Miss, 6-6 losses to Auburn, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, LSU, (Missouri)

Miss St

I hope I haven't made any mistakes.

Pretty fair assessment and I salute you for putting down the blue/orange glasses and giving it your impartial thoughts which is a pretty rare thing in this forum (just being honest) - I dont think that CNS can pull it off against LSU but I hope you're right..

Good luck on your finals.. Go get'em

[mowegl 4]

didnt Arkansas have 5 seniors on the offensive line last year? Im sure that helped the rushing performance, and it might not be as dominant this year.

[mcgufcm 4,109]

3 i believe, but one of them was ugoh... who was/is a grown man. the line won't be as good; the backs will be better. and don't forget the qb still has marcus monk to bail him out (that was 50 of mustain's back-breaking 87 yards against us on a jump ball for a touchdown). and yes, i'd take that bet.

arkansas has 6 guaranteed wins: troy, north texas, ut-chat, ole miss, fiu, and msu.

they have 2 more home games against teams they beat last year: south carolina and auburn (they'll be favored against usc).

they have 2 road games against teams they beat last year: alabama and tennessee (they'll be favored against bama unless the line moves b/c of rednecks putting lots of money on saban).

they have only 1 road game against a team that beat them: lsu

and they'll have a bowl game. if they finish with only 8 wins, that bowl game will be against an inferior opponent; if they win 9 or more, i win. i'd take that bet.

[BamaGrad03 0]

they have 2 road games against teams they beat last year: alabama and tennessee (they'll be favored against bama unless the line moves b/c of rednecks putting lots of money on saban).

They wouldn't be favored against Bama if the lines came out today. Arkansas beat us in their house when our backup kicker missed 4 kicks. They beat us in OT. They had many more key player losses than we did. And it's obvious we are going to be a better team this coming year than we were last year.

[runswithscissors 33]

Wanna wager that Arkansas will win no more than 8 games?

i'd put some cash on that. i think theres gonna be way too many distractions and dissent among the team with everything that has gone on in the offseason. i really don't see them putting it together. if the 07 season is a bust, i wouldn't look for CHN to be around fayetteville much longer.

[Fmnstr 0]

they have 2 road games against teams they beat last year: alabama and tennessee (they'll be favored against bama unless the line moves b/c of rednecks putting lots of money on saban).

They wouldn't be favored against Bama if the lines came out today. Arkansas beat us in their house when our backup kicker missed 4 kicks. They beat us in OT. They had many more key player losses than we did. And it's obvious we are going to be a better team this coming year than we were last year.

it is? to who?

[BamaGrad03 0]

it is? to who?

So are you willing to go on record saying you think Mike Shula is a better coach than Nick Saban?

[SouthLink02 8]

I've got to disagree about Booty. USC is LOADED. I don't think Booty and Cox are too far apart in the talent area. If Cox was throwing to Dwayne Jarett, Steve Smith, Patrick Turner, and Vidal Hazelton, he would have had just as good a year. Booty was terribly inconsistent. He made Michigan look silly but he also made some bad decisions throughout the season.

A Booty will never win a National Title or Championship title of any kind.

Whether it's Abram choking away his talent with booze and drugs, or Josh thinking he was too good to be playing with his fellow LSWho players while losing to UAB, or their father thinking he created High School football at Evangel....it has all filtered down to John David

[Fmnstr 0]

it is? to who?

So are you willing to go on record saying you think Mike Shula is a better coach than Nick Saban?

i'm willing to go on record and say you could still go 6-7 next year just like anyone else could. i'm willing to go on record saying that even nick saban might not be able to fix anything in a year. i'm willing to go on record saying you're silly if you disagree with real odds based on a hunch you've got. but it's OBVIOUS, right?

[BamaGrad03 0]

i'm willing to go on record and say you could still go 6-7 next year just like anyone else could. i'm willing to go on record saying that even nick saban might not be able to fix anything in a year. i'm willing to go on record saying you're silly if you disagree with real odds based on a hunch you've got. but it's OBVIOUS, right?

The argument was not whether or not we could lose 6 games next year. The argument was whether or not we would be an improved football team. I doubt anyone who isn't an AU fan would expect us to be worse under Saban than we were under Shula.

Especially considering the fact that we return 9 offensive starters.

[Fmnstr 0]

i'm willing to go on record and say you could still go 6-7 next year just like anyone else could. i'm willing to go on record saying that even nick saban might not be able to fix anything in a year. i'm willing to go on record saying you're silly if you disagree with real odds based on a hunch you've got. but it's OBVIOUS, right?

The argument was not whether or not we could lose 6 games next year. The argument was whether or not we would be an improved football team. I doubt anyone who isn't an AU fan would expect us to be worse under Saban than we were under Shula.

Especially considering the fact that we return 9 offensive starters.

expectation and reality rarely see eye to eye. i'm just catching you in a saban slobbin'. i saw him shake his head many times during the spring game. things happen. is the team improved if it has the same record as the one the year before?

[saniflush 0]

i'm willing to go on record and say you could still go 6-7 next year just like anyone else could. i'm willing to go on record saying that even nick saban might not be able to fix anything in a year. i'm willing to go on record saying you're silly if you disagree with real odds based on a hunch you've got. but it's OBVIOUS, right?

The argument was not whether or not we could lose 6 games next year. The argument was whether or not we would be an improved football team. I doubt anyone who isn't an AU fan would expect us to be worse under Saban than we were under Shula.

Especially considering the fact that we return 9 offensive starters.

I actually think you will be a better team than what you were under flipper. However, I want a clarification. By saying you return 9 offensive starters are you putting forth that these are top notch players and thus implying that flipper did a good job recruiting? I can find eleven guys that played together last year but it doesn't mean they are high quality talent. Just looking for the clarification so I know which excuses will not work when the losses start piling up in the Fall.

[BamaGrad03 0]

I actually think you will be a better team than what you were under flipper. However, I want a clarification. By saying you return 9 offensive starters are you putting forth that these are top notch players and thus implying that flipper did a good job recruiting? I can find eleven guys that played together last year but it doesn't mean they are high quality talent. Just looking for the clarification so I know which excuses will not work when the losses start piling up in the Fall.

Well let's see. Unanimous Freshman All American left tackle Andre Smith. All SEC Center Antoine Caldwell. All time single season passing leader at Alabama in JPW. All SEC WR DJ Hall.

In addition to: Keith Brown, Nikita Stover, Matt Caddell, BJ Stabler.

Our offensive players weren't the problem last year (except for Capps). Our offensive SCHEMES around the goal line were the problem. Remember, we led the SEC in red zone appearances last season. Just couldn't punch it in.

And I think it's safe to say, if you have 9 guys who played together a season before, they are going to be better the next season. Unless you are suggesting that players tend to get WORSE as they progress through a college career.

[saniflush 0]

I actually think you will be a better team than what you were under flipper. However, I want a clarification. By saying you return 9 offensive starters are you putting forth that these are top notch players and thus implying that flipper did a good job recruiting? I can find eleven guys that played together last year but it doesn't mean they are high quality talent. Just looking for the clarification so I know which excuses will not work when the losses start piling up in the Fall.

Well let's see. Unanimous Freshman All American left tackle Andre Smith. All SEC Center Antoine Caldwell. All time single season passing leader at Alabama in JPW. All SEC WR DJ Hall.

In addition to: Keith Brown, Nikita Stover, Matt Caddell, BJ Stabler.

Our offensive players weren't the problem last year (except for Capps). Our offensive SCHEMES around the goal line were the problem. Remember, we led the SEC in red zone appearances last season. Just couldn't punch it in.

And I think it's safe to say, if you have 9 guys who played together a season before, they are going to be better the next season. Unless you are suggesting that players tend to get WORSE as they progress through a college career.

SOoooooooooo......

Are you saying Flipper recruited well?

[BamaGrad03 0]

SOoooooooooo......

Are you saying Flipper recruited well?

In some spots sure. I know you are trying to trap me in something..but... I don't think Shula was a bad recruiter. Considering the circumstances, he did pretty well. He never brought in a top 5 class, but he did a decent job.

He offered DJ Hall well before FSU or UF ever even knew about him. Caldwell and Smith were probably always Bama bound, but they will both play on Sundays. JPW wasn't going anywhere else, but Shula did a good job bringing him along. I don't think anyone can argue that.

Shula's biggest recruiting problem was at LB and DT.

[saniflush 0]

SOoooooooooo......

Are you saying Flipper recruited well?

In some spots sure. I know you are trying to trap me in something..but... I don't think Shula was a bad recruiter. Considering the circumstances, he did pretty well. He never brought in a top 5 class, but he did a decent job.

He offered DJ Hall well before FSU or UF ever even knew about him. Caldwell and Smith were probably always Bama bound, but they will both play on Sundays. JPW wasn't going anywhere else, but Shula did a good job bringing him along. I don't think anyone can argue that.

Shula's biggest recruiting problem was at LB and DT.

I am not trying to lurer you into anything, I just like clear concise language. So with that in mind is it fair to say that flipper recruited well on the offensive side of the ball? I already told you why I am asking. There is nothing magical about my motives. I was very upfront why I wanted to know.

[BamaGrad03 0]

I am not trying to lurer you into anything, I just like clear concise language. So with that in mind is it fair to say that flipper recruited well on the offensive side of the ball? I already told you why I am asking. There is nothing magical about my motives. I was very upfront why I wanted to know.

I think he did recruit offensively quite well. Except for not closing the deal on Tebow...though I don't know if anyone could have. I don't think you can argue counter to the notion that he recruited WR quite well. He recruited RB very very well, but two of his biggest pulls: Roy Upchurch and Terry Grant have suffered season ending injuries in the past.

QB he recruited well. JPW is an all sec caliber QB, Robert Marve would have signed with Alabama had Shula stayed, Jimmy Barnes was an Army All American from California.

OL was a mixed bag. BJ Stabler, Andre Smith, and Antoine Caldwell are all excellent. A couple of others like Mike Johnson have yet to pan out.

FB he recruited well, both are on NFL rosters right now, one is assured a starting spot for the Baltimore Ravens.

While he recruited the TE spot well, he did an awful job utilizing the position on saturdays.

[saniflush 0]

So, based on that and no major injuries, scoring should be no problem for the tide this Fall then. Correct?

[BamaGrad03 0]

So, based on that and no major injuries, scoring should be no problem for the tide this Fall then. Correct?

I think scoring will exceed that of last year by at least 30%.

Now, that doesn't mean overall expectations shouldn't be tempered. Because we will give up more points on defense thanks to a lack of run d.

[SouthLink02 8]

Looking over TideFans and BamaMag, many Bama fans thought Major was a little "over his head" as someone said during A-Day.

True?

[saniflush 0]

So, based on that and no major injuries, scoring should be no problem for the tide this Fall then. Correct?

I think scoring will exceed that of last year by at least 30%.

Now, that doesn't mean overall expectations shouldn't be tempered. Because we will give up more points on defense thanks to a lack of run d.

No I understand that. I also acknowledge that you can be a better team and have a worse record. I think anyone who does not try to run right at you up the gut is on some serious crack.

[BamaGrad03 0]

Looking over TideFans and BamaMag, many Bama fans thought Major was a little "over his head" as someone said during A-Day.

True?

I was pretty happy with the way our offense looked at ADay. We had about 130 yards worth of passes to the tight end. Thank God. We threw a ton of screens and ran a good bit of mis-direction. We didn't have a "Jumbo Package".

I think Major's offensive playcalling will be light years ahead of Shula's.

I also think he will have to do a little learning this year. Coming over from Rice, he won't be quite prepared for SEC defensive speed.

I think anyone who does not try to run right at you up the gut is on some serious crack.

I'm in total agreement.

[saniflush 0]

So, based on that and no major injuries, scoring should be no problem for the tide this Fall then. Correct?

I think scoring will exceed that of last year by at least 30%.

Now, that doesn't mean overall expectations shouldn't be tempered. Because we will give up more points on defense thanks to a lack of run d.

So in summation.....

UAT's offense will score >298 points

and

UAT's defense will give up >250 points

This should be interesting to see how that works out for you.