2024 season is a success if…

[EastLakeTiger 57]

Pass the ball for 2800 yards in the regular season

[TitanTiger 21,219]

Auburn should absolutely win all its OOC games.  That's four wins right there. 

I think Arkansas and Vanderbilt should absolutely be wins as well

So to get to 8 wins in the regular season, they'd need to win 2 of the remaining 6 games:

Oklahoma
@Georgia 
@Missouri
@Kentucky
Texas A&M
@Alabama

None of those are gimmes, but I just feel like to really feel good, we ought to be able to pick off two of those.  So 8 wins seems like a good benchmark.  Sure, if we finish 7-5 and we're in every game til the end, win a bowl game to go 8-5, it's still progress.  But 8-4 regular season feels like the next step you really like to see.

 

[EastLakeTiger 57]

15 minutes ago, TitanTiger said:

Auburn should absolutely win all its OOC games.  That's four wins right there. 

I think Arkansas and Vanderbilt should absolutely be wins as well

So to get to 8 wins in the regular season, they'd need to win 2 of the remaining 6 games:

Oklahoma
@Georgia 
@Missouri
@Kentucky
Texas A&M
@Alabama

None of those are gimmes, but I just feel like to really feel good, we ought to be able to pick off two of those.  So 8 wins seems like a good benchmark.  Sure, if we finish 7-5 and we're in every game til the end, win a bowl game to go 8-5, it's still progress.  But 8-4 regular season feels like the next step you really like to see.

 

I believe we're currently underdogs in all of those games besides Kentucky, which is away and a bit more difficult.

7 wins just ends up being kinda meh.  8 means we've beaten someone we shouldn't and ideally means Freeze dropped his normal blip of losing to a team he was a favorite and often a heavy favorite.

I could somewhat be okay-ish with 7 games if we see remarkable improvement on offense and a real passing game Auburn has only had 2-3 times in their history.  Need some hope there.

[GreenTiger 1,056]

8 hours ago, JuscAUse! said:

I agree to a point. I was pretty much amazed at the number of games that AU would be favored in pre season. In Vegas,  that is. There is a reason our preseason win/loss, over/under number is 6-7, depending on the site. We're not favored in any big games at this point. That can all change for the better or not when the season starts.

Yes. And that reason is last year’s staff crapped the bed. Historical big stinky!

6 wins in the last two seasons shouldn’t give anyone who’s betting confidence in Auburn Football. 

[TeamZero77 1,928]

17 hours ago, GreenTiger said:

Yes. And that reason is last year’s staff crapped the bed. Historical big stinky!

6 wins in the last two seasons shouldn’t give anyone who’s betting confidence in Auburn Football. 

Actually it's even worse. We had 6 wins in 2020, 6 wins in 2021, 5 wins in 2022 and 6 wins last year. We are unranked to start the season for the 4th year in a row. We haven't been ranked in the top 25 since November 7th, 2021.

Our last win versus a Power 5 team that finished with a winning record was Ole Miss in 2021. Since then we have lost 17 such matchups in a row.  

Freeze has recruited his ass off ever since he arrived. He has taken our recruiting to the level now where we can possibly finish around 5th or so this class but when you get to this level of recruiting, it takes winning on the field to consistently stay there. Freeze has been an 8-5 type coach throughout his career, much like the coaches Auburn has had. Hopefully he can get us to that 9 or 10 win average per year. I don't expect Bama, Georgia or Clemson type seasons stacked together but I do think we could be where LSU has been. I would be ecstatic if Freeze could get us to that level consistently. Hopefully he can put it together on the field like he does in recruiting. I don't want him to be a Ron Zook type coach where he recruits great but is average on Saturday's. 

[GreenTiger 1,056]

1 hour ago, TeamZero77 said:

Actually it's even worse. We had 6 wins in 2020, 6 wins in 2021, 5 wins in 2022 and 6 wins last year. We are unranked to start the season for the 4th year in a row. We haven't been ranked in the top 25 since November 7th, 2021.

Our last win versus a Power 5 team that finished with a winning record was Ole Miss in 2021. Since then we have lost 17 such matchups in a row.  

Freeze has recruited his ass off ever since he arrived. He has taken our recruiting to the level now where we can possibly finish around 5th or so this class but when you get to this level of recruiting, it takes winning on the field to consistently stay there. Freeze has been an 8-5 type coach throughout his career, much like the coaches Auburn has had. Hopefully he can get us to that 9 or 10 win average per year. I don't expect Bama, Georgia or Clemson type seasons stacked together but I do think we could be where LSU has been. I would be ecstatic if Freeze could get us to that level consistently. Hopefully he can put it together on the field like he does in recruiting. I don't want him to be a Ron Zook type coach where he recruits great but is average on Saturday's. 

Thanks for the correction. You’re right. Worse than I thought. Step 1 get them on campus. Step 2 keep them on campus. Step 3 coach them up. Step 4 win on Saturdays and back to step 1

[TigerOne 1,229]

Freeze has no excuses. Do it or get out. You got the big check and the big time football program. So far you’re recruiting has been top rate. Show us you know what to do with it.

You still have to out coach saban and his puppet coach along with Kirby, Oklahoma Texas, Tennessee. 

[WFE12 9,350]

8 wins should be the floor. I seen someone say the ceiling is 7 wins. Vastly improved wr room, Underrated rb room, defense with good potential. Already sounds like freeze is accepting that it will be an average year. I don’t even like listening to his pressers anymore. 12 team playoff. We can make something shake.

[GreenTiger 1,056]

7 hours ago, WFE12 said:

Already sounds like freeze is accepting that it will be an average year.

I like Freeze but I’ve noticed this as well and it does concern me. It feels and sounds like the precursor to a list of excuses. There is talent and maturity on this years team. He has his coaches and supposed to be more involved with the offense. It’s fair for the fans to expect more at this point 

[AUpreacherman22 3,945]

On 7/9/2024 at 12:48 PM, Viper said:

I just don’t see our overall talent with the GA/bammer road games getting us more than 8 wins.

For me, it’s not even those 2 games.  I’ve got them penciled in as likely losses.  It’s @Mizzou and @UK as well as OK and A&M at home.   Those four games determine our season IMHO.  (As of right now on paper I think we would be slight underdogs in 3 of them.)
0-4 means we finish 6-6 and we’ve issues!   4-0 means we’re way ahead of schedule and probably make the playoffs this year!   2-2 puts us at 8-4 which I think is a successful proof of concept year and we’re building towards something great!

So, in short, I’m going with 8 wins as well.  😁

Edited August 2 by AUpreacherman22

[Viper 3,491]

3 hours ago, AUpreacherman22 said:

For me, it’s not even those 2 games.  I’ve got them penciled in as likely losses.  It’s @Mizzou and @UK as well as OK and A&M at home.   Those four games determine our season IMHO.  (As of right now on paper I think we would be slight underdogs in 3 of them.)
0-4 means we finish 6-6 and we’ve issues!   4-0 means we’re way ahead of schedule and probably make the playoffs this year!   2-2 puts us at 8-4 which I think is a successful proof of concept year and we’re building towards something great!

So, in short, I’m going with 8 wins as well.  😁

I have us at 7-5 with major improvement in 2025 (10-11 wins).

[AuGrad2004 100]

8 RS wins

Top 10 recruiting

Competitive in loses.  Nothing over 17 point loss

 

 

 

[AUwent 3,828]

On 8/2/2024 at 11:17 AM, Viper said:

I have us at 7-5 with major improvement in 2025 (10-11 wins).

For that second part to happen you’re going to need to drop an insane amount of $ on a portal QB. Are we ready to do that if we get Deuce? I would assume not.

Edited August 3 by AUwent

[DAG 34,724]

1 hour ago, AUwent said:

For that second part to happen you’re going to need to drop an insane amount of $ on a portal QB. Are we ready to do that if we get Deuce? I would assume not.

No need for a portal if we get deuce tbh . 

[AUFAN78 4,148]

Win all home games.  This is Our House!

Pick off a game or two on the road. 

[Viper 3,491]

2 hours ago, AUwent said:

For that second part to happen you’re going to need to drop an insane amount of $ on a portal QB. Are we ready to do that if we get Deuce? I would assume not.

I don't believe it has to be an insane amount of $ on a QB to get to 10 wins in 2025. Always plenty of 2nd tier ones available. They'll be drooling to throw to our studs.

[AUwent 3,828]

3 hours ago, DAG said:

No need for a portal if we get deuce tbh . 

Maybe—he truly does seem like the real deal—but I just can’t see us being a contender until year 4 with a TF QB. Otherwise, seven returning starters is seven returning starters. What a dilemma…

Edited August 4 by AUwent

[GreenTiger 1,056]

On 8/2/2024 at 11:17 AM, Viper said:

I have us at 7-5 with major improvement in 2025 (10-11 wins).

I’m guessing your major improvements are solely player related??? Coaching staff has yet to prove any improvement and it seems that we will be very young 2025. 

[AUwent 3,828]

25 minutes ago, GreenTiger said:

I’m guessing your major improvements are solely player related??? Coaching staff has yet to prove any improvement and it seems that we will be very young 2025. 

I agree with the second half of that sentence but uh…we made a bowl game in the first year of a complete rebuild. Year ones in that scenario are usually not much fun. 2023 was going to be the year in which all of Harsin’s (and sure, to a lesser extent Malzahn’s) destruction of the roster came home to roost. So the goal was always a bowl game.

Now, this year, we’re right to demand at least a little better.

Edited August 4 by AUwent

[Viper 3,491]

2 hours ago, GreenTiger said:

I’m guessing your major improvements are solely player related??? Coaching staff has yet to prove any improvement and it seems that we will be very young 2025. 

Absolutely player related. Sneaked a peek at our recruits lately?

Primarily schedule related. bammer escaped with their lives the last two times at JH. Not in 25.

[JuscAUse! 1,660]

12 hours ago, AUwent said:

Maybe—he truly does seem like the real deal—but I just can’t see us being a contender until year 4 with a TF QB. Otherwise, seven returning starters is seven returning starters. What a dilemma…

I always thought the goal was to have the 2nd teamers step up when the starters left. With the exception of the OLine (maybe) and the QB, todays college football require a lot more players than the starting 22. Just because some are raw and unseasoned now doesn't mean they won't play enough to step in when their time comes. In fact, every coach with more than a one year plan wants this to happen. For example, if you play 8-10 players every game on the DL, and you recruit high quality dudes and good coaches, your concerns would be nil. Balance that with the way Kirby and Saban use the portal for a few quick fixes or 5 star players and you're set. 

We will see if HF can pull it off, but he's off to a great start in roster management.