UMass @ Auburn Advanced Box Score

[southern_sports 58]

A few days late on this but I wanted to share the advanced box score from Auburn's victory this past Saturday over UMass:

 

Auburn defeated UMass on Saturday 59-14 to open the 2023 season. At first glance, it looks like the new offense and defense performed well, but let’s dig a little deeper.

The 5 Factors Bill Connelly has identified for his SP+ rankings are a good benchmark to analyze off of in my opinion.

• Explosiveness

  • Explosive rate was only 9%, but remember Auburn was holding things back and didn’t need much explosiveness.

• Efficiency

  • EPA/Play estimates how many points a team gained or lost on a given play taking into account several factors. A good play will give you a positive EPA and a poor play will give you a negative. You’ll see that Auburn was in 95th percentile with a positive EPA per play at 0.35 while UMass was in the negative at -0.19.

  • Success Rate at 58%

  • EPA/Rush at 0.45 is great to see

  • EPA/Dropback not that great but then again Auburn was not operating at fully capacity

 

 

• Finishing Drives

  • Offensive Available Yards Percentage (OAY): This measures how much yardage a team gains compared to the total yards they could potentially gain on a drive. It's calculated by dividing the yards gained on a drive by the yards they could have gained if they had started from their position and reached the end zone.

  • Auburn gained 73% of their yards available on their drives

• Field Position Battle

  • UMass had a constant disadvantage by averaging starting on their own 23

  • Auburn averaged starting in better field position and had more plays and yards per drive

• Win turnover battle

  • Auburn won the turnover battle with a turnover margin of 2

 

There's plenty good to be taken from the win last Saturday and some criticisms are warranted. I think it's best to understand that CFH and staff knew they could skate by on talent alone and did what they could to run away with it without showing off too much. We should see more from Thorne against Cal this Saturday. 

 

Edited September 7, 2023 by southern_sports

[aubiefifty 18,455]

3 minutes ago, southern_sports said:

A few days late on this but I wanted to share the advanced box score from Auburn's victory this past Saturday over UMass:

 

Auburn defeated UMass on Saturday 59-14 to open the 2023 season. At first glance, it looks like the new offense and defense performed well, but let’s dig a little deeper.

The 5 Factors Bill Connolly has identified for his SP+ rankings are a good benchmark to analyze off of in my opinion.

• Explosiveness

  • Explosive rate was only 9%, but remember Auburn was holding things back and didn’t need much explosiveness.

• Efficiency

  • EPA/Play estimates how many points a team gained or lost on a given play taking into account several factors. A good play will give you a positive EPA and a poor play will give you a negative. You’ll see that Auburn was in 95th percentile with a positive EPA per play at 0.35 while UMass was in the negative at -0.19.

  • Success Rate at 58%

  • EPA/Rush at 0.45 is great to see

  • EPA/Dropback not that great but then again Auburn was not operating at fully capacity

 

 

• Finishing Drives

  • Offensive Available Yards Percentage (OAY): This measures how much yardage a team gains compared to the total yards they could potentially gain on a drive. It's calculated by dividing the yards gained on a drive by the yards they could have gained if they had started from their position and reached the end zone.

  • Auburn gained 73% of their yards available on their drives

• Field Position Battle

  • UMass had a constant disadvantage by averaging starting on their own 23

  • Auburn averaged starting in better field position and had more plays and yards per drive

• Win turnover battle

  • Auburn won the turnover battle with a turnover margin of 2

 

There's plenty good to be taken from the win last Saturday and some criticisms are warranted. I think it's best to understand that CFH and staff knew they could skate by on talent alone and did what they could to run away with it without showing off too much. We should see more from Thorne against Cal this Saturday. 

 

well do not leave us hanging. do we beat Cal? the cal running back says they can sleep walk through auburns d and we are not much more than a name. something to that effect. talk to us. oh and thanx for posting.....................

[southern_sports 58]

2 hours ago, aubiefifty said:

well do not leave us hanging. do we beat Cal? the cal running back says they can sleep walk through auburns d and we are not much more than a name. something to that effect. talk to us. oh and thanx for posting.....................

I am not Pythia, but a simple man. I wish I could tell you that Auburn will beat Cal! We're favored by 6.5 and if we win it'll be because of the new staff + having better players. 

We would've lost this game last year, but Auburn beats teams like Ole Miss, Arkansas, and Miss State even with poor coaching just on athleticism alone (usually). I think that combined with a real deal staff and QB who can complete passes gives the Tigers an edge.

It'll feel like a home game and I think they pull it out 27-17. Cal went nuts last week against a North Texas team who has a total defense rating of 123 out of 133 FBS teams per bcftoys. They will face SEC dudes Saturday night.