7.26.23 Football Articles

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si.com

Brian Battie is a top-ten returning rusher in college football

Andrew Stefaniak

2–3 minutes

Brian Battie comes to Auburn as a top-ten returning running back in college football based on the yards he had last season at USF. 

Battie ran for 1,186 yards last season for South Florida, which is the ninth-most among returning running backs in college football.

Hugh Freeze gave injury updates for Auburn and said Battie had an off-season foot procedure but will hopefully be good to go sooner than later.

Freeze's quote on Battie's injury was, "(Battie) is going to suck it up and go. You know, I wish I felt a little better about his surgery, and maybe I'm just pushing it a little too. I want it faster."

This quote shows you just how much Freeze likes Battie and what he can do for the Tigers on the field this season. 

If Battie can get healthy, he can help Auburn in the running and return games. 

A healthy Battie will do a lot for this Auburn football team in 2023. 

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auburntigers.com

Meet the Coaches: Auburn wide receivers coach Marcus Davis

Auburn University Athletics

6–8 minutes

AUBURN, Ala. – Ten years after arriving at Auburn as a freshman, Marcus Davis returned, determined to help the next generation of Tigers win championships.  

Seven seasons removed from his playing days, Davis believes his status as one of the SEC’s youngest position coaches positions him to relate to the receivers he leads.  

“It’s definitely a positive,” Davis said. “I just was in that seat. That’s been extremely helpful for me in building relationships.

“Building that bridge for them to understand that if you do the little things right, good things can happen for you. It’s more than just football, it’s also teaching them how to be good people in the community.”

A receiver and return specialist from 2013-16, Davis took the fast track back to Auburn.

After captaining the 2016 Tigers, he earned his master’s degree and served in support staff roles for two seasons on the Plains before working as a graduate assistant at Florida State in 2020.

Success at his first assistant coaching assignment at Hawaii in 2021 led to a job at Georgia Southern in 2022, and the opportunity to come home to Auburn when Hugh Freeze hired Davis in December.

“It’s a blessing to be here,” Davis said. “Once you know the foundation of a program, it’s easier to do exactly what you need to do because the expectations are clear cut. You know what it takes to win here.

“It’s an honor to be back, a privilege to serve these young dudes I get to lead and do it the right way for them.”

 

Davis credits his faith for the opportunity to return to his alma mater so early in his coaching career.

“I thank the Good Lord,” Davis said. “I always ask Him to order my steps, open the doors that need to be opened and close the doors that need to be closed. He opened this one.

“I take pride and purpose with that because I know to whom much is given, much is required. Is it a surprise I’m here as soon as I am? It really is, but I’m trying to live a purpose-filled life that’s led by Him. It’s been a good ride so far.”

One of three Auburn football lettermen on Hugh Freeze’s coaching staff, Davis joins secondary coach Zac Etheridge and associate head coach Carnell Williams as former Tigers who won SEC championships as Tiger student-athletes.

“That’s the coolest part for me personally,” Davis said. “We all love Auburn. We all know what it truly is to be an Auburn man. We all believe in work, hard work. We want to create that for the next generation, the guys we get to mentor.”

It’s bigger than football for me. It’s about changing lives in the way that Auburn changed my life and giving them the opportunities I had.

Marcus Davis

Without a moment’s hesitation, Davis outlined the identity he wants Auburn’s receivers to display.

“Tough, a brotherhood and together,” he said. “When you think of Auburn, we’re a blue-collar football program. Tough is the first thing. Everything else follows. If we can be tough and together, we’re going to be all right.”

Davis primarily recruits part of south Georgia, Baldwin County in Alabama and his old South Florida stomping grounds of Palm Beach County and Broward County.

“Some really good football in those areas,” he said. “That’s back at home for me. Looking to enhance some of the relationships I already have and build more with other people.”

Thirty years ago, the famed Dillard Pipeline from a high school in Fort Lauderdale to Auburn brought James Bostic, Frank Sanders, Otis Mounds and an undefeated season to the Plains. The pipeline also produced Auburn standouts Brian Robinson, Stanley McClover, Pat Sims and 2010 national champion Antoine Carter.

“That’s something we’re trying to continue to build,” Davis said. “When you had a few South Florida guys on those Auburn teams, you were really good. We understand that as well.

“It has to be the right fit, guys who want to be at Auburn who are Auburn-type guys. We’re doing our due diligence with that.”

 

The message hits the mark because the messengers – from the head coach to the precocious receivers coach – are authentic.

“It’s the truth,” he said. “That’s the state of the program. That’s where we are. That’s who we have as a leader. You’ve got great people under Coach Freeze who are following the same thing. It really is a great time to be at Auburn. It’s going to take the right people to want to be a part of that.

“When you’ve got a good leader in place, everything funnels under that. It’s a great time to be at Auburn right now because you’ve got new leadership. These guys getting recruited right now can be the foundation of the really good things we’re going to do.

“My message is: right now it is the time to be at Auburn. You have a bunch of people in this building who love Auburn and want to do right by it. They could be a part of history and change the trajectory of what Auburn football looks like.

“It’s bigger than football for me. It’s about changing lives in the way that Auburn changed my life and giving them the opportunities I had.”

Marcus and his wife, Amberly, are expecting their second daughter in October, a baby sister for 1-year-old Milah Patrice, making the Davises an Auburn family of four.

Without fanfare, the youngest member of Auburn’s coaching staff makes his mark on the program he so highly regards. 

    “Somebody who loves Auburn and would do anything for Auburn,” Davis said. “It’s about work, hard work, and truly believing in that, and trying to spread that throughout the Auburn football program.”

Jeff Shearer is a Senior Writer at AuburnTigers.com. Follow him on Twitter: @jeff_shearer

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al.com

Is Auburn football’s history of meddling boosters changing? ESPN’s Cole Cubelic thinks so

Published: Jul. 25, 2023, 1:00 p.m.

5–6 minutes

ESPN college football analyst Cole Cubelic has seen his fair share of nuttiness when it comes to the booster situation at his alma mater.

When Cubelic played on Auburn’s offensive line from 1996 to 2001, he saw it first hand when Terry Bowden suddenly departed The Plains in the middle of the 1998 season.

Cubelic said he and the Tigers’ football team were in Opelika catching a movie, a routine they did the day before a game, when someone called his teammate’s Nokia cellphone and said someone had called into Paul Finebaum’s radio show to break the news that Bowden was out as the Tigers’ head coach.

Those with deep pockets who backed the Tigers’ program alleged that Bowden was having an affair with the daughter of a member of the same Board of Trustees that hired him. The rumors circulated at a rapid pace, forcing Bowden and his wife to issue a statement denying the allegations.

Bowden’s counter argument after stepping down was that he was told by boosters there was nothing he could do to save his job after Auburn’s 1-5 start to the season.

Yet, despite “resigning”, Auburn went on to pay Bowden’s $600,000 buyout, making the entire situation appear slimier than it already looked.

Since then, Cubelic has watched the same movie play at Auburn time and time again.

Tommy Tuberville’s time as head coach at Auburn was all but drama-free. In 2003, Auburn’s president, athletic director and two trustees flew to Louisville on a booster’s corporate jet the Thursday before the Iron Bowl to interview Bobby Petrino for the Tigers’ head coaching job — which wasn’t vacant.

The secret meeting went against contracts held by both Tuberville and Petrino and eventually led to the firing of Auburn president William Walker and athletic director David Housel.

Tuberville maintained his spot-on Auburn’s sideline until 2008, when he stepped down.

Though not as dramatic, some make the argument that Auburn’s divorce from Gene Chizik, who won a title two years prior to his firing, was the result of booster meddling, too.

Last season, Bryan Harsin alleged that an internal investigation was a personal attack. He was later ousted midway through the 2022 season.

All are evidence of decades of a power struggle. Three years ago, Finebaum said the situation at Auburn was the one of the worst cases of booster meddling he’d ever seen.

“That’s kinda the part that frustrates me the most,” Cubelic said in an interview with Barstool Sports’ Unnecessary Roughness podcast. “And I know we could find other places that have similar people or things that take place, but a lot of these Auburn fans get mad because Booster A or Booster B wants his way. He wants this or he wants that.

“The power struggle is real. It has been very real and I think a lot of that is because there have been between one and three individuals who have been behind it.”

But the slate feels clean now.

When the Tigers kick off against UMass on Sept. 2, it’ll be the first Auburn football game for first-year head coach Hugh Freeze. It’ll also be the first Week 1 game athletic director John Cohen gets to be a part of after being hired in late October of last year.

In his interview with Unnecessary Roughness, Cubelic endorsed Cohen, saying the former Mississippi State athletic director has done a good job navigating the unreasonable requests of deep-pocketed boosters.

“That’s where I think John Cohen is doing a nice job. The AD has gotta come in there and say listen, we’re going to give you a headset in your suite during the game, but it’s not going to work both ways,” Cubelic said. “You can pretend like it works and you can tell them what plays you’re calling, but you can’t do it.”

Auburn University president Chris Roberts is also relatively green after being named the institution’s 21st president last year.

At SEC Media Days in Nashville last week, Freeze told media members he felt aligned with Auburn’s administration from top to bottom.

“We have a brand-new president, and that president has a brand-new athletic director, and that athletic director and that president chose a new football coach,” Freeze said. “And we are as aligned as we could ever be... And we’re going to ride this bus together.”

Given the turbulent history at Auburn, that’s exactly what Freeze is supposed to say.

But for someone like Cubelic, who has been invested in Auburn’s football program for nearly three decades, to echo the same sentiment says a lot.

“We’ve seen some pretty good alignment at times, it’s kind of come and gone. But I just think right now that as far as people on the same page, that it’s as good as I’ve ever seen it, as good as I can remember,” Cubelic said in an interview with AL.com. “And keep in mind, I started really paying attention to Auburn football in probably, you know, mid 90s, early 90s. So this is this is as good as I can recall it.”

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auburnwire.usatoday.com

 

ESPN releases SEC West projections

Taylor Jones

4–5 minutes

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Now that SEC Media Days have concluded, many outlets are beginning to release their preseason projections. ESPN has become one of the most recent publications to do so.

In his SEC West outlook, ESPN’s Bill Connelly compiled his picks for the division’s final result. Based on ESPN’s SP+ ratings, Auburn is expected to finish dead last in the division.

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The projection is not necessarily a bad thing. ESPN’s SP+ ranking mixes returning production, recent recruiting, and recent history. Due to Auburn’s recent decline, the Tigers are still No. 27 in the SP+ ranking heading into the 2023 season. However, five teams in the SEC West are in the top 25 of the SP+ rankings.

When it comes to on-field production, every team in the SEC West is expected to produce at least 33 points per game, and with the worst defensive projection expected to give up just 24 points per game. As for Auburn, the Tigers are projected to post 33.5 points per game while allowing 19.8 points per contest.

As far as wins go, Auburn is projected to win 6.8 games with 3.3 of those coming in conference play. The overall win total is the lowest in the SEC West, but there are three teams that are expected to win at least 3.3 games in SEC play.

Here’s a look at ESPN’s SEC West projections ahead of the 2023 season.

AP Photo/Butch Dill

Alabama and LSU are projected to be the top teams within the division this season, but the other five teams could also have a say in who wins the SEC West. Auburn joins Arkansas and Mississippi State as teams that are projected to win three SEC games this season.

Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

This is kind of a surprising pick, but the data doesn’t lie. The Razorbacks are one spot above Auburn in the SP+, and are expected to have an explosive offense this season.

For more Arkansas football news, visit Razorbacks Wire.

Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

According to ESPN data, first-year head coach Zach Arnett may take Mississippi State to a bowl game with seven wins. The Bulldogs are No. 25 in the Sp+ rankings and are projected to post 35.8 points per game.

Daniel Dunn-USA TODAY Sports

The first team in the West that is expected to earn four wins in SEC play is the Ole Miss Rebels. Ole Miss has plenty of offensive talent, but they are one of three SEC West teams that are projected to give up 20-or-more points per game, which could keep them from winning an important game or two.

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

If any team can challenge Alabama or LSU for the crown, it is Texas A&M according to ESPN. The Aggies missed a bowl game last season, but have wins over Alabama and LSU in recent years. Texas A&M is desperate to have a good season, which could be motivating for them to win ten games in 2023.

For more Texas A&M football coverage, visit Aggies Wire.

Jonathan Bachman/Getty Images

Everyone else seems to be picking the Bayou Bengals to win the SEC West for the second straight season, but you can never count out Alabama. The Crimson Tide host LSU this season, which could be the deciding factor for the division crown.

For more LSU football news, visit LSU Tigers Wire.

Marvin Gentry-USA TODAY Sports

After winning two straight SEC championships in 2020 and 2021, Alabama missed out on Atlanta in 2022. That will be plenty of motivation for Alabama to turn up the intensity this season. The Crimson Tide is expected to have a top-five offense and a top-ten defense this season. All Alabama needs is a trusted quarterback to get the job done.

For more Alabama football coverage, visit Roll Tide Wire.

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[SaltyTiger 8,579]

Good stuff again @aubiefifty. Thanks

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8 minutes ago, SaltyTiger said:

Good stuff again @aubiefifty. Thanks

i do it with love salty.............for everyone. i am glad you enjoy them.

[SaltyTiger 8,579]

4 hours ago, aubiefifty said:

i do it with love salty.............for everyone. i am glad you enjoy them.

Enjoy much. Love when you have this stuff posted by coffee time in mornings. 

[aubiefifty 18,259]

 

al.com

 

An Auburn Q&A: Here’s what Cole Cubelic thinks about Auburn’s 2023 season

Published: Jul. 26, 2023, 7:30 a.m.

8–9 minutes

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The calendar is about to turn to August, and the 2023 season ticks ever closer. But this is still the time for predictions. So AL.com sat down with a few national media members to get their thoughts on Auburn’s upcoming campaign.

First up, ESPN analyst and Auburn alum Cole Cubelic. Cubelic played for Auburn from 1996-2001. Cubelic mostly focuses his work in the SEC and hosts a radio show with former Alabama quarterback Greg McElroy based out of Birmingham.

The quotes have been edited slightly for clarity and brevity.

Cohen: At SEC Media Days, head coach Hugh Freeze said Auburn is a ‘work in progress.’ So what does Auburn need to work on?

Cubelic: “Well, number one, the roster is not complete as far as being upgraded and finding better talent to be on it. I think he wants to redevelop the culture. He wants it to be a culture that’s used to winning, that understands how to win. We don’t know if they have any of those things right now. We don’t know if these are guys that even if they take the coaching, and take the scheme and the system are going to really know how to go out and win football games. Hugh kind of goes out of his way to develop young men in a different way other than just being football players. I think it’s just the attitude, the demeanor of the culture inside that facility, the understanding of how to win, what it’s going to take to win. I think a lot of those are where he talks about, you know, continuing to build and it being work in process, those are the things that I would think would be at the forefront. Not to mention the fact that they still need more talent, they need more depth.”

Cohen: What are some of the biggest differences you’ve noticed so far between Bryan Harsin’s coaching staff and Hugh Freeze’s?

Cubelic: “I think the first part is just relationships. And Bryan had not spent a lot of time in that country developing relationships, getting to know high school coaches. The staff wasn’t going to be littered with guys that had a real idea of who to go talk to and when to go talk to and how to talk to them. So you know, I think there’s a certain language in the SEC footprint that you need to be able to speak and Hugh Freeze speaks that language. That can be to a recruit, that can be to a parent, it can be to a high school coach. It could be to a lot of different folks, but he knows how to speak that language and I think that’s been proven. I think the time that he’d already spent recruiting the SEC footprint, his assistants having gone over to other SEC schools and things of that nature gave him a little bit more of an advantage. And then just I think too, the efficiency of recruiting and the emphasis that’s on it. Part of this now goes off the alignment that we talked about. You have a higher percentage chance of being successful in recruiting with some of that alignment behind, backing you and helping you, and not against you. So that’s why that alignment is so important. But I just think it’s a wherewithal of what it takes and how to speak the language of the people that you’re going to need to talk to on a regular basis.”

Cohen: As Auburn puts a roster together, what level of patience is appropriate?

Cubelic: “I don’t like to put the exact landmarks up as far as, I hate using numbers like, ‘Oh yes, he has to win seven this year,’ or ‘He needs to win nine this year.’ For me, it’s something that you’ll know it when you see it. That is being more competitive, maybe being able to win games in different ways. Maybe it is situational football and individual players being more aware when they’re in that moment or they have those opportunities. I think it’s a lot of things really, but it’s something that folks that know Auburn football and watch Auburn football for a long time I think will recognize fairly easily once they see it.”

Cohen: What are you expecting from Auburn’s quarterback battle in fall camp? Will Payton Thone be the guy? Robby Ashford? Someone else?

Cubelic: “The first thing that I would say about it is Hugh Freeze really likes [redshirt freshman quarterback] Holden Geriner. I have been around him multiple times in the last couple of months and Holden’s name just keeps coming up. It just keeps popping up. And I don’t think that’s by accident. Now, not trying to say that to lead anybody to believe that he’s going to be the immediate starter or you know, that he’s going to be the guy right away. But I think maybe down the road, somebody that Auburn fans should probably be a little more excited about just based on what Coach Freeze thinks of him.

As far as this year goes, I think Payton Thorne wins the job. I think if Robby Ashford accepts it, he could have a significant role on this team. I think he can be someone who really helps this team. But I think that has to be something that he is comfortable with, and that he wants and that he shows a desire to have. I think if the attitude is not there, and the willingness is not there, I don’t think these coaches will force it because they don’t have to have it. But it would very much be nice to have for that team this season because one, it’s going to make teams prepare for it and two, it’s going to make you more dynamic at times on offense. And I think it can be something that helps his development as a college quarterback. More time in games, more time seeing defenses, more time understanding the speed of the game and you know just different ways to be able to go out and make yourself better.”

Cohen: So does that mean you’d consider a two-quarterback system?

Cubelic: “I would call it more of a Robby being a situational guy than I would a two-quarterback system. To me, a two-quarterback system is almost pretty even. Both guys play close to the same amount of snaps. I don’t foresee that, but I do foresee him being a situational quarterback that can help them in different ways at different times.”

Cohen: Okay, predictions time. What’s your realistic prediction for Auburn this year? Your dream scenario? Worst case scenario?

Cubelic: “Realistic prediction for Auburn this year is right around seven, eight wins. And I think eight wins will be exceptional. It’s easy to get excited about guys out of the portal, but keep in mind most of them have not been playing this level of football. Depth is still going to be a real question. They’re in a spot where if they lose one, two guys in a couple different positions, they’re a very different football team. Also hate the fact that they play at night, week two on the West Coast. They have to travel back. That’s just something that affects you for more than a couple days. You know, being tested on the road at A&M early? I don’t love it. Obviously, Georgia, LSU, Alabama, those are national championship contenders. So I think if you got to eight, it would be a really good year.

I think dream scenario is probably 10-2 where you catch lightning in a bottle. Quarterback gets hot. You know, younger guys are obviously helping your team, that gives you more depth. You take Georgia, LSU, Bama, you probably lose two of those three. I think that’s probably your best-case scenario.

I think the floor would probably be five wins, but I don’t really see it. I think UMass, Cal, Samford, New Mexico State, like you’re getting those wins. I don’t think there’s a lot of separation between Mississippi State, Ole Miss, Auburn, Arkansas. I don’t think that there’s a ton of separation between those teams. So to think that they would drop all those games? I don’t really see that as being feasible. So probably five would be the floor.”

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4 hours ago, SaltyTiger said:

Enjoy much. Love when you have this stuff posted by coffee time in mornings. 

i try to get em early but sometimes if i am not sleeping good it is just not happening. but that is my plan.............

[aubiefifty 18,259]

 

lasvegassun.com

 

College football by the odds: Handicapping every SEC team's win total

By Case Keefer (contact)

12–15 minutes

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ASSOCIATED PRESS

Alabama wide receiver Ja’Corey Brooks (7) is defended by LSU cornerback Jarrick Bernard-Converse (24) and safety Joe Foucha (13) during the second half of an NCAA college football game in Baton Rouge, La., Saturday, Nov. 5, 2022. LSU won 32-31 in overtime.

Wednesday, July 26, 2023 | 2 a.m.

• Weekend wagers: Nine bets to make including a pair of football futures
• Football Firsts: Six bets on six of the biggest markets to kick off betting season

For the first time in 13 years, Alabama is not favored to win the SEC. It only took back-to-back national championships by Georgia to unseat the Crimson Tide at the top of odds boards.

College football has always been top-heavy, and perhaps nowhere has that been more evident than in the sport’s top conference. Alabama has been the standard ever since it won the first six national championships under coach Nick Saban in 2009.

The Crimson Tide’s average future odds to win the SEC since then have been +102 (i.e. risking $100 to win $102). They’ve prevailed in the conference in seven of 13 tries.

If a bettor had wagered $100 on Alabama to win the conference every year in the span, he or she would be up around $275. Examples like that are often misleading, considering no one actually does such an exercise, but in this case, it’s an example of how unstoppable Alabama has been from a betting perspective even with the most smothering weight of expectations.

For the first time in a long time this year, the question is how the Crimson Tide perform when their stock is down. Alabama is +275 to win the SEC, trailing Georgia at -105 (i.e. risking $105 to win $100) with LSU somewhat closely behind at +500.

The only other teams available at less than 50-to-1 are Tennessee and Texas A&M at 17-to-1 apiece. That doesn’t necessarily mean the other 10 teams in the conference are hopeless.

During Alabama’s reign of dominance, one team did overcome 100-to-1 odds to win the SEC — Auburn in 2013 as part of a run to a national championship game appearance against Florida State.  

But the longshots won’t have it easy this year. Alabama could potentially be as strong ever, but it’s not even the team to beat at sports books.

Read below for a win-total handicap on every team in the SEC. Over the next few weeks, Talking Points will be previewing every power conference in college football from a betting perspective by picking the win totals.

Listed odds next to the team are from Circa Sports, while the pick comes from the best odds on the chosen side available at the five Las Vegas sports books with win totals available on their mobile apps — Circa, SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas, Caesars/William Hill, STN Sports and BetMGM. Picks are labeled in three confidence categories — plays, leans and guesses. Plays will be tracked in the Weekend Wagers column throughout the season.

Florida: 5.5 wins (over -135, under +115)

The Gators still don’t have the level of talent their blueblood status should guarantee, but the roster is beginning to look more like one that fits with second-year coach Billy Napier’s preferred setup. Namely, they're massive in the trenches with a pair of explosive running backs in Trevor Etienne and Montrell Johnson. Bowl eligibility should be attainable, even against what multiple projections rate as the nation’s toughest schedule.  

Play: Over 5.5 wins at -120 (SuperBook at Westgate Las Vegas)

Georgia: 11.5 wins (over +110, under -130)

Mark J. Terrill / AP

Georgia linebacker Jalon Walker (11) celebrates his sacking of TCU quarterback Max Duggan during the second half of the national championship game, Monday, Jan. 9, 2023, in Inglewood, Calif. Georgia trounced TCU 65-7 to win its second straight national title.

As dominant as Georgia has been with back-to-back undefeated regular seasons, they’ve had to stage a narrow escape in each campaign — against a diminished Clemson team in 2021 and a mediocre Missouri side in 2022. At some point, a close game is going to fall the other way. That might be this year, perhaps during a tough back-to-back late in the season when the Bulldogs host Ole Miss before traveling to Tennessee. They’re still the best team in the nation but breaking in a new offensive coordinator/quarterback tandem this year in Mike Bobo and, presumably, Carson Beck.   

Lean: Under 11.5 wins at -130 (Circa)

Kentucky: 7 (over -110, under -110)

As long as NC State transfer quarterback Devin Leary stays healthy — and he does have an injury history — Kentucky has upside to be the second-best team in the SEC East. The Wildcats’ defense is annually stingy, and the return of offensive coordinator Liam Coen after a year with the Los Angeles Rams bodes well for Leary. BetMGM is offering over 6.5 wins at -160, which is tempting, but with Kentucky’s upside, I’d recommend the higher payout.  

Play: Over 7 wins at +110 (SuperBook)

Missouri: 6 (over -120, under Even money)

The Tigers went 6-6 last year thanks almost entirely to a suffocating defense that came out of nowhere. That’s a red flag as defensive efficiency is notoriously fickle year-to-year, especially with more of a one-season blip than a history of success, and Missouri may not have the offense to pull it out of tight games if the other side of the ball regresses. The Tigers have big returning-production numbers, but the rest of the mid-range SEC East division is arguably improved meaning some teams are bound to drop off.

Lean: Under 6.5 wins at -130 (Caesars/William Hill)

South Carolina: 6 (over -120, under Even money)

The Gamecocks have far overachieved their statistical profile in each of coach Shane Beamer’s first two seasons. Either he’s truly one of the best coaches in college football or regression is going to strike at some point. Quarterback Spencer Rattler is a big name but annually the opposite of his coach — an underperformer. The Gamecocks are also often outmanned up front in the SEC.  

Guess: Under 6 wins at +110 (SuperBook)

Tennessee: 9 (over -105, under -115)

Wade Payne / Associated Press

Tennessee running back Jaylen Wright (20) celebrates a touchdown during the second half of the team's NCAA college football game against Florida on Saturday, Sept. 24, 2022, in Knoxville, Tenn. Tennessee won 38-33.

Coach Josh Heupel’s “smashmouth spread” offense took the SEC by the storm the past two years, but it looked like opponents began to somewhat figure out its relatively simplicity down the stretch last year. The Volunteers may be great again, but it’s not worth paying a premium — last year’s win total was 8 before a 10-2 regular season — with quarterback Hendon Hooker and his two best receivers, including Bishop Gorman High graduate Cedric Tillman, departed. It’s better to take a wait-and-see approach as it pertains to whether new quarterback Joe Milton can pick up where Hooker left off with fewer weapons.  

Guess: Under 9 wins at -105 (STN Sports)

Vanderbilt: 4 (over -110, under -110)

The Commodores were ravaged by the transfer portal, but importantly held on to the vast majority of an offensive line that paved the way to an impressive 5-7 record last year. Coach Clark Lea knows employing a slow, ball-control offense and building a decent defense  — the focus of this offseason — is the only way the Commodores have a chance in the SEC. But they could potentially hit this win total solely in the non-conference, where they should go at least 3-1.

Guess: Over 3.5 wins at -165 (STN Sports)

Alabama: 10 (over -155, under +135)

On paper, and in a change, this might be the most difficult team to handicap. They’re star-studded on defense with players like cornerback KoolAid McKinstry and edge rusher Dallas Turner but have seen their effectiveness on that side of the ball diminish over the last couple years. Offensively, there’s a relative dearth of big-time playmakers even at quarterback where new offensive coordinator Tommy Rees seemingly panic-added former Notre Dame quarterback Tyler Buchner after spring football. But any time the Crimson Tide have been doubted in the past, they’ve responded emphatically.  

Guess: Over 10 wins at -155 (Circa)

Arkansas: 6.5 (over -140, under +120)

Quarterback KJ Jefferson is an incredible talent, but there are a lot of questions around him. Who is he going to throw to with his top five receivers departed? Is new offensive coordinator Dan Enos, a drastic departure from the outgoing Kendal Briles, really the right choice to bring the most out of him? There will be no time for a learning curve considering Arkansas’ first four SEC opponents are LSU, Texas A&M, Ole Miss and Alabama. None of the games are at home, by the way, with three on the road the Aggies at a neutral site at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas.

Guess: Under 7 wins at -130 (BetMGM)

Auburn: 7 (over +135, under -155)

Everything went wrong for the Tigers last year beyond just the ignominious end to coach Bryan Harsin’s short time on the plains. Auburn also had the worst turnover luck in the conference – 123^rd in the nation per the SP+ ratings — and among the most injuries. In other words, new coach Hugh Freeze isn’t stepping into as poor of a situation as it first may appear. He’s done more with far fewer resources previously. 

Guess: Over 6.5 wins at -125 (Caesars/William Hill)

LSU: 9.5 (over -125, under +105)

Matthew Hinton / AP

LSU defensive end Ali Gaye (11) celebrates a sack of UAB quarterback Dylan Hopkins with safety Greg Brooks Jr. (3) during the first half of an NCAA college football game in Baton Rouge, La., Saturday, Nov. 19, 2022.

The gap between Alabama and LSU for SEC West supremacy is a lot narrower than the opening odds indicated. Unfortunately, the market has adjusted. The Tigers are now appropriately merely decimal points behind the Crimson Tide. LSU does have to play at Alabama on Nov. 4, but it’s coming off of a bye (so is Alabama) for what should be one of the biggest games of the year. If both teams are at their best, it’s difficult to imagine LSU not putting up a fight. The Tigers are too stacked at virtually every position group to be beaten up by any team. 

Lean: Over 9.5 wins at -110 (SuperBook)

Mississippi State: 6 (over -110, under -110)

The devastating death of coach Mike Leach this offseason leaves Mississippi State in a vulnerable position in arguably the best division in college football. New coach Zach Arnett was thrust into the position without any warning and has since undergone transforming schemes on both sides of the ball. The Bulldogs far overperformed their statistical expectation with an 8-4 season a year ago, so they may have already been destined to take a step back this year before the college football icon’s passing.   

Play: Under 6 wins at Even money (STN Sports)

Ole Miss: 7.5 (over -110, under -110)

Rogelio V. Solis / AP

In this Aug. 9, 2021, file photo, Mississippi coach Lane Kiffin speaks with his players during NCAA college football practice in Oxford, Miss., Monday,. Mississippi takes on Louisville in Monday night’s Chick-Fil-A Kickoff game that wraps up college football’s first full weekend.

There would typically be reason for concern with the way Ole Miss lost four of its final five games last season, but they might be minimized with the way coach Lane Kiffin has overhauled the roster for the second straight year. Such personnel turnover is bound to backfire on the Rebels at some point, but the sense is they attracted too much talent for that to happen this year. Oklahoma State quarterback Spencer Sanders and UTSA receiver Zakhari Franklin are among the prizes the self-anointed “Portal King” Kiffin brought to Oxford, Miss., the past few months.   

Guess: Over 7.5 wins at Even money (Caesars/William Hill)

Texas A&M: 8.5 (over +130, under -150)

By any talent metric, the Aggies have one of the best overall rosters in the nation. Accumulate this many game-changers on both sides of the ball and, at some point, it should pay dividends. Coach Jimbo Fisher’s offense has largely held Texas A&M back during consecutive disappointing seasons but his poaching of new offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino after a couple weeks with UNLV could be the spark the unit needs. Texas A&M’s 1-5 record in games decided by less than a touchdown last year is highly unlikely to repeat.

Lean: Over 8 wins at -110 (SuperBook)

Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or case.keefer@lasvegassun.com. Follow Case on Twitter at twitter.com/casekeefer.Case Keefer can be reached at 702-948-2790 or