Gavin Newsom Dismantles Republican Governors In Less Than 1 Minute

[TexasTiger 14,310]

11 minutes ago, SaltyTiger said:

Great point Tex. Life in parts of California be kinda nice in a tent. If you enjoy water our gulf coast is better. The Pacific water is too cold. Play in the gulf basically year round.

Hot & humid, though. I’ve rarely had unpleasant weather in CA. Always comfortable outside.

[TexasTiger 14,310]

3 hours ago, aubiefifty said:

YOU throwing shade on anyone is funny trump boy............how about some truth...........

 

 

news.yahoo.com

 

Republican-controlled states have higher murder rates than Democratic ones: study

Ben Adler

7–9 minutes

---

Republican politicians routinely claim that cities run by Democrats have been experiencing crime waves caused by failed governance, but a new study shows murder rates are actually higher in states and cities controlled by Republicans.

“We’re seeing murders in our cities, all Democrat-run,” former President Donald Trump asserted at a March 26 rally in Georgia. “People are afraid to go out.”

In February, Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., blamed Democrats for a 2018 law that reduced some federal prison sentences — even though it was signed by Trump after passing a GOP-controlled Congress. “It’s your party who voted in lockstep for the First Step Act that let thousands of violent felons on the street who have now committed innumerable violent crimes,” Cotton said during a speech in the Senate.

Last December, Rep. Dan Crenshaw, R-Texas, told Fox News viewers, “America’s most beautiful cities are indeed being ruined by liberal policies: There’s a direct line between death and decay and liberal policies.”

 

Former President Donald Trump speaks at a rally at a rally on March 26 in Commerce, Ga. (Megan Varner/Getty Images)

 

But a comparison of violent crime rates in jurisdictions controlled by Democrats and Republicans tells a very different story. In fact, a new study from the center-left think tank Third Way shows that states won by Trump in the 2020 election have higher murder rates than those carried by Joe Biden. The highest murder rates, the study found, are often in conservative, rural states.

The study found that murder rates in the 25 states Trump carried in 2020 are 40% higher overall than in the states Biden won. (The report used 2020 data because 2021 data is not yet fully available.) The five states with the highest per capita murder rate — Mississippi, Louisiana, Kentucky, Alabama and Missouri — all lean Republican and voted for Trump.

There are some examples of states Biden won in 2020 that also have high per capita murder rates, including New Mexico and Georgia, which have the seventh- and eighth-highest murder rates, respectively. And there are Trump-supporting states with low murder rates, such as Idaho and Utah. Broadly speaking, the South, and to a lesser extent the Midwest, has more murders per capita than the Northeast, interior West and West Coast, the study found.

Those findings are consistent with a pattern that has existed for decades, in which the South has had higher rates of violent crime than the nation as a whole.

 

Demonstrators march in Atlanta on April 14, 2021, to protest the shooting death of Daunte Wright three days earlier. (Megan Varner/Getty Images)

 

“We as criminologists have known this for quite some time,” Jennifer Ortiz, a professor of criminology at Indiana University Southeast, told Yahoo News. “States like Mississippi, Louisiana and Alabama have historically had high crime rates.”

Criminologists say research shows higher rates of violent crime are found in areas that have low average education levels, high rates of poverty and relatively modest access to government assistance. Those conditions characterize some portions of the American South.

“They are among the poorest states in our union,” Ortiz said of the Deep South. “They have among the highest rates of child poverty. They are among the least-educated states. They are among the states with the highest levels of substance abuse. All of those factors contribute to people engaging in criminal behavior.”

“I thought that was a very good study,” Richard Rosenfeld, a professor of criminology at the University of Missouri-St. Louis and former president of the American Society of Criminology, told Yahoo News about the Third Way report. “In Republican states, states with Republican governors, crime rates tend to be higher. I’m not certain that’s related to the fact that the governor is a Republican, but it’s a fact nonetheless.”

 

Police and emergency personnel work on a crime scene in Waukesha, Wis., in November 2021. (Jim Vondruska/Getty Images)

 

(While the Third Way study divided states by presidential vote in 2020, using gubernatorial party affiliation leads to similar results because most states have recently chosen the same party for governor and for president. Based on presidential vote, eight of the 10 states with the highest murder rates lean Republican, versus seven of the top 10 if one uses the governor’s party.)

Although murder rates tend to be highest in the South, the biggest increases in 2020 were found in the Great Plains and Midwest, according to Third Way. The largest jumps were in Wyoming (91.7% higher than in 2019), South Dakota (69%), Wisconsin (63.2%), Nebraska (59.1%) and Minnesota (58.1%). Wyoming, South Dakota and Nebraska all voted for Trump and have Republican governors. Wisconsin and Minnesota voted for Biden and are led by Democrats.

Few large cities are governed by Republicans — only 26 of the 100 largest U.S. cities have Republican mayors — making apples-to-apples comparisons difficult. But cities that do have Republican mayors do not have lower murder rates than similarly sized Democratic-led cities, the study found.

Some experts warn against the impulse to use crime data to score quick political points.

“Being a Republican or Democratic state or city is correlated with many other issues,” David Weisburd, a professor of criminology and executive director of the Center for Evidence-Based Crime Policy at George Mason University, wrote in an email to Yahoo News. “That means that the murder rate may be due to the state being Republican, or it may be due to the fact that Republican states have many other risk factors related to crime or murder rates. Even with a very comprehensive modeling of all of these factors, it is very difficult to get a valid causal result for explaining crime rates.”

 

Police tape blocks a street where a person was shot in a drug-related incident in Philadelphia in 2021. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

 

That argument cuts both ways, however. Weisburd also thinks the claims of Trump and other Republicans who say Democrats have caused a crime wave in the cities and states they govern are unfounded. “I don't think this argument can be supported no matter which way you go,” Weisburd said.

Murder rates in the U.S. rose dramatically in 2020 from record lows, and the increases are similar across states — regardless of partisan preference. For homicides in 2020, Third Way found a 32.2% uptick in Trump-backing states versus a 30.8% rise in those that voted for Biden. Some states with large cities, such as New York and Pennsylvania, saw larger-than-average increases: New York went up 47% and Pennsylvania is up 39%. But the largest increases were in rural, Republican-led states, including Montana (+84%) and South Dakota (+81%).

The higher national murder rate is naturally causing public concern, although violent crime does remain far below its early 1990s high point. “Using the FBI data, the violent crime rate fell 49% between 1993 and 2019,” from 757 incidents per 100,000 people to 379 per 100,000, the Pew Research Center noted last November. Between 2019 and 2020, the murder rate jumped from 6 homicides per 100,000 people to 7.8 homicides per 100,000, but that was still 22% below the rate in 1991 of 10 homicides per 100,000.

Settles it. Republicans are statistically proven to be cold stone killers. Thanks, Fiddy!

[SaltyTiger 8,579]

17 minutes ago, TexasTiger said:

Hot & humid, though. I’ve rarely had unpleasant weather in CA. Always comfortable outside.

I said if you like water. Hot and humid means get in the water and be comfortable. I know some people that moved from California to Panama City because of Gulf warmer waters. Know others that relocated to Auburn because retirement to expensive in California. Good professionals that do not see us as hillbilly or Maga

[TexasTiger 14,310]

34 minutes ago, SaltyTiger said:

I said if you like water. Hot and humid means get in the water and be comfortable. I know some people that moved from California to Panama City because of Gulf warmer waters. Know others that relocated to Auburn because retirement to expensive in California. Good professionals that do not see us as hillbilly or Maga

I had neighbors here in Texas who sold their modest house in CA to buy land & their dream home here— 5 years later their dream changed, but they just moved up the road. 

[arein0 1,105]

1 hour ago, SaltyTiger said:

Love your opinion. Keep posting nat1…. you will be labeled “Maga” by the progressives here for disagreeing. 

From what I've seen from his posts he is nothing like Maga

[SaltyTiger 8,579]

2 minutes ago, TexasTiger said:

I had neighbors here in Texas who sold their modest house in CA to buy land & their dream home here— 5 years later their dream changed, but they just moved up the road. 

I have a friend and ex business partner who was willed a condo and very ordinary home in LA from an estranged brother. Had not seen the brother in approximately 30 years. Property value worth and sold for around $3 million. The estranged brother owned another home in Birmingham that was willed to a caretaker.

[SaltyTiger 8,579]

10 minutes ago, arein0 said:

From what I've seen from his posts he is nothing like Maga

You do pretty good. You do not label us all Maga 

[aubaseball 2,829]

15 hours ago, aubiefifty said:

YOU throwing shade on anyone is funny trump boy............how about some truth...........

 

 

news.yahoo.com

 

Republican-controlled states have higher murder rates than Democratic ones: study

Ben Adler

7–9 minutes

---

Republican politicians routinely claim that cities run by Democrats have been experiencing crime waves caused by failed governance, but a new study shows murder rates are actually higher in states and cities controlled by Republicans.

“We’re seeing murders in our cities, all Democrat-run,” former President Donald Trump asserted at a March 26 rally in Georgia. “People are afraid to go out.”

In February, Sen. Tom Cotton, R-Ark., blamed Democrats for a 2018 law that reduced some federal prison sentences — even though it was signed by Trump after passing a GOP-controlled Congress. “It’s your party who voted in lockstep for the First Step Act that let thousands of violent felons on the street who have now committed innumerable violent crimes,” Cotton said during a speech in the Senate.

Last December, Rep. Dan Crenshaw, R-Texas, told Fox News viewers, “America’s most beautiful cities are indeed being ruined by liberal policies: There’s a direct line between death and decay and liberal policies.”

 

Former President Donald Trump speaks at a rally at a rally on March 26 in Commerce, Ga. (Megan Varner/Getty Images)

 

But a comparison of violent crime rates in jurisdictions controlled by Democrats and Republicans tells a very different story. In fact, a new study from the center-left think tank Third Way shows that states won by Trump in the 2020 election have higher murder rates than those carried by Joe Biden. The highest murder rates, the study found, are often in conservative, rural states.

The study found that murder rates in the 25 states Trump carried in 2020 are 40% higher overall than in the states Biden won. (The report used 2020 data because 2021 data is not yet fully available.) The five states with the highest per capita murder rate — Mississippi, Louisiana, Kentucky, Alabama and Missouri — all lean Republican and voted for Trump.

There are some examples of states Biden won in 2020 that also have high per capita murder rates, including New Mexico and Georgia, which have the seventh- and eighth-highest murder rates, respectively. And there are Trump-supporting states with low murder rates, such as Idaho and Utah. Broadly speaking, the South, and to a lesser extent the Midwest, has more murders per capita than the Northeast, interior West and West Coast, the study found.

Those findings are consistent with a pattern that has existed for decades, in which the South has had higher rates of violent crime than the nation as a whole.

 

Demonstrators march in Atlanta on April 14, 2021, to protest the shooting death of Daunte Wright three days earlier. (Megan Varner/Getty Images)

 

“We as criminologists have known this for quite some time,” Jennifer Ortiz, a professor of criminology at Indiana University Southeast, told Yahoo News. “States like Mississippi, Louisiana and Alabama have historically had high crime rates.”

Criminologists say research shows higher rates of violent crime are found in areas that have low average education levels, high rates of poverty and relatively modest access to government assistance. Those conditions characterize some portions of the American South.

“They are among the poorest states in our union,” Ortiz said of the Deep South. “They have among the highest rates of child poverty. They are among the least-educated states. They are among the states with the highest levels of substance abuse. All of those factors contribute to people engaging in criminal behavior.”

“I thought that was a very good study,” Richard Rosenfeld, a professor of criminology at the University of Missouri-St. Louis and former president of the American Society of Criminology, told Yahoo News about the Third Way report. “In Republican states, states with Republican governors, crime rates tend to be higher. I’m not certain that’s related to the fact that the governor is a Republican, but it’s a fact nonetheless.”

 

Police and emergency personnel work on a crime scene in Waukesha, Wis., in November 2021. (Jim Vondruska/Getty Images)

 

(While the Third Way study divided states by presidential vote in 2020, using gubernatorial party affiliation leads to similar results because most states have recently chosen the same party for governor and for president. Based on presidential vote, eight of the 10 states with the highest murder rates lean Republican, versus seven of the top 10 if one uses the governor’s party.)

Although murder rates tend to be highest in the South, the biggest increases in 2020 were found in the Great Plains and Midwest, according to Third Way. The largest jumps were in Wyoming (91.7% higher than in 2019), South Dakota (69%), Wisconsin (63.2%), Nebraska (59.1%) and Minnesota (58.1%). Wyoming, South Dakota and Nebraska all voted for Trump and have Republican governors. Wisconsin and Minnesota voted for Biden and are led by Democrats.

Few large cities are governed by Republicans — only 26 of the 100 largest U.S. cities have Republican mayors — making apples-to-apples comparisons difficult. But cities that do have Republican mayors do not have lower murder rates than similarly sized Democratic-led cities, the study found.

Some experts warn against the impulse to use crime data to score quick political points.

“Being a Republican or Democratic state or city is correlated with many other issues,” David Weisburd, a professor of criminology and executive director of the Center for Evidence-Based Crime Policy at George Mason University, wrote in an email to Yahoo News. “That means that the murder rate may be due to the state being Republican, or it may be due to the fact that Republican states have many other risk factors related to crime or murder rates. Even with a very comprehensive modeling of all of these factors, it is very difficult to get a valid causal result for explaining crime rates.”

 

Police tape blocks a street where a person was shot in a drug-related incident in Philadelphia in 2021. (Spencer Platt/Getty Images)

 

That argument cuts both ways, however. Weisburd also thinks the claims of Trump and other Republicans who say Democrats have caused a crime wave in the cities and states they govern are unfounded. “I don't think this argument can be supported no matter which way you go,” Weisburd said.

Murder rates in the U.S. rose dramatically in 2020 from record lows, and the increases are similar across states — regardless of partisan preference. For homicides in 2020, Third Way found a 32.2% uptick in Trump-backing states versus a 30.8% rise in those that voted for Biden. Some states with large cities, such as New York and Pennsylvania, saw larger-than-average increases: New York went up 47% and Pennsylvania is up 39%. But the largest increases were in rural, Republican-led states, including Montana (+84%) and South Dakota (+81%).

The higher national murder rate is naturally causing public concern, although violent crime does remain far below its early 1990s high point. “Using the FBI data, the violent crime rate fell 49% between 1993 and 2019,” from 757 incidents per 100,000 people to 379 per 100,000, the Pew Research Center noted last November. Between 2019 and 2020, the murder rate jumped from 6 homicides per 100,000 people to 7.8 homicides per 100,000, but that was still 22% below the rate in 1991 of 10 homicides per 100,000.

Are you really this dense?  Who cares about murder RATES????   It’s the number of people killed that matter.   It’s stupid stats like the sh&t you continue to post that don’t mean a thing.   It’s useless.   
Again, the majority of big cities with the highest murders are run by democrats.   It’s ok to admit it.   Just say it with me, majority of major cities with the highest murders are run by democrats.   There you go, wasn’t so hard was it.   

[arein0 1,105]

36 minutes ago, aubaseball said:

Are you really this dense?  Who cares about murder RATES????   It’s the number of people killed that matter.   It’s stupid stats like the sh&t you continue to post that don’t mean a thing.   

You use murder rates to normalize the amount of murders based on population. It's the only metric you can use to compare cities with different population sizes as with every metric total number (murder, crime, income, etc) will always be higher based on population size. As an example, what looks worse 3 murders in a population of 100 or 2 murders in a population of 10? Yeah you can say the population of 100 people has more murders, but if you take into account the population differences and normalize the rate based on population per 100 people, it would be 3 vs 20.

[jj3jordan 2,171]

You guys all missing the important point. All we need to catch Gavin level leadership is an up to date S**T map so we can navigate to the best areas.

[aubaseball 2,829]

6 hours ago, arein0 said:

You use murder rates to normalize the amount of murders based on population. It's the only metric you can use to compare cities with different population sizes as with every metric total number (murder, crime, income, etc) will always be higher based on population size. As an example, what looks worse 3 murders in a population of 100 or 2 murders in a population of 10? Yeah you can say the population of 100 people has more murders, but if you take into account the population differences and normalize the rate based on population per 100 people, it would be 3 vs 20.

I know what they mean.   It’s a talking point Jackass Newsome used to disparage Republican Governors.  You yourself, fail to look at anything I’ve said and prove that it’s wrong.   You want to continue to beat on this stupid murder rate drum.  Does it really and truly matter if a city is 100 people or 1 million people.   Deaths are deaths.   

[arein0 1,105]

16 minutes ago, aubaseball said:

I know what they mean.   It’s a talking point Jackass Newsome used to disparage Republican Governors.  You yourself, fail to look at anything I’ve said and prove that it’s wrong.   You want to continue to beat on this stupid murder rate drum.  Does it really and truly matter if a city is 100 people or 1 million people.   Deaths are deaths.   

I agree, deaths are deaths, but you are not factoring in population, which does matter.

Going back to my example, would you rather live in a place where 3% or 20% of the population was murdered? 

This really isn't an argument, I'm just trying to help you understand how to interpret data. If you don't want to learn, that's fine too.

[icanthearyou 4,468]

On 7/11/2023 at 2:23 PM, TexasTiger said:

California’s homeless problem has a lot to do with good weather. They aren’t all from there. The other related factor is housing costs. San Francisco does some stupid things on top of that and I’m sure LA does, too, but it’s not all about bad government.

Asset inflation has consequences. 

[TexasTiger 14,310]

16 minutes ago, icanthearyou said:

Asset inflation has consequences. 

Indeed it does. From what I understand, some areas really need to do rezoning to allow for more housing to address demand.

[homersapien 12,245]

On 7/12/2023 at 9:04 AM, aubaseball said:

Are you really this dense?  Who cares about murder RATES????   It’s the number of people killed that matter.   It’s stupid stats like the sh&t you continue to post that don’t mean a thing.   It’s useless.   
Again, the majority of big cities with the highest murders are run by democrats.   It’s ok to admit it.   Just say it with me, majority of major cities with the highest murders are run by democrats.   There you go, wasn’t so hard was it.   

People who understand how to make rational comparisons. 

[homersapien 12,245]

On 7/12/2023 at 9:51 AM, arein0 said:

You use murder rates to normalize the amount of murders based on population. It's the only metric you can use to compare cities with different population sizes as with every metric total number (murder, crime, income, etc) will always be higher based on population size. As an example, what looks worse 3 murders in a population of 100 or 2 murders in a population of 10? Yeah you can say the population of 100 people has more murders, but if you take into account the population differences and normalize the rate based on population per 100 people, it would be 3 vs 20.

Probably need to save your effort.

Sooner or later there will be another argument about who is making the most sincere effort to stem the release of greenhouse gases -  U.S., India, or China?

I finally gave up on trying to explain the significance of viewing data on a per capita basis instead of totals. Normalizing data is a foreign concept to many on here.  (Maybe its too scientific. 😉)

Edited July 13, 2023 by homersapien

[arein0 1,105]

4 minutes ago, homersapien said:

Probably need to save your effort.

Sooner or later there will be another argument about who is making the most sincere effort to stem the release of greenhouse gases -  U.S., India, or China?

I finally gave up on trying to explain the significance of viewing data on a per capita basis instead of totals. Normalizing data is a foreign concept to many on here.  (Maybe its too scientific. 😉)

You would've thought someone with baseball in their username would understand normalizing data. You know since their key stats are batting average, earned run average, sluggling percentage, on base percentage.

[aubaseball 2,829]

2 hours ago, homersapien said:

People who understand how to make rational comparisons. 

Again, you and zero fail to acknowledge the topic of discussion.   The top cities with the highest murder rates are run by democrats.   There, I even used your criteria of murder rates.    You fail to even acknowledge this fact.   You just want to beat the murder rate drum.   

[arein0 1,105]

8 minutes ago, aubaseball said:

Again, you and zero fail to acknowledge the topic of discussion.   The top cities with the highest murder rates are run by democrats.   There, I even used your criteria of murder rates.    You fail to even acknowledge this fact.   You just want to beat the murder rate drum.   

From the article fifty posted

 

On 7/11/2023 at 4:40 PM, aubiefifty said:

Few large cities are governed by Republicans — only 26 of the 100 largest U.S. cities have Republican mayors — making apples-to-apples comparisons difficult. But cities that do have Republican mayors do not have lower murder rates than similarly sized Democratic-led cities, the study found.

 

[aubaseball 2,829]

48 minutes ago, arein0 said:

From the article fifty posted

 

 

Okay….so what’s the point in all of this.  That white 50 cent just post articles that mean nothing?   Or is it that you just want to say, see cities that are the similar in size have the same murder rates with both parties running them?  Or how bout this, the overwhelming majority of murders in this country consist of 30 to 40 cities and most are run with the democrats controlling everything in the cities.   

[jj3jordan 2,171]

14 hours ago, homersapien said:

Probably need to save your effort.

Sooner or later there will be another argument about who is making the most sincere effort to stem the release of greenhouse gases -  U.S., India, or China?

I finally gave up on trying to explain the significance of viewing data on a per capita basis instead of totals. Normalizing data is a foreign concept to many on here.  (Maybe its too scientific. 😉)

Pretty much all earthlings isn’t it homey? I mean..we all breathe. And fart. 

[homersapien 12,245]

4 hours ago, jj3jordan said:

Pretty much all earthlings isn’t it homey? I mean..we all breathe. And fart. 

True. 

But the argument was about different countries and their respective effectiveness or effort to minimize greenhouse gas emissions.

The premise presented we are doing better than China or India because their total amount of greenhouse gas emissions is higher than ours, which says nothing about their effort or effectiveness of their respective governments or populations.  Their national values are higher simply because they have a lot more people than we do.  So, normalizing the data by a focus on per-capita emissions presents a truer picture of effort and effectiveness.

Or to put it in your terms, we "fart" a lot more per capita than they do. 

Edited July 14, 2023 by homersapien

[homersapien 12,245]

14 hours ago, aubaseball said:

Okay….so what’s the point in all of this.  That white 50 cent just post articles that mean nothing?   Or is it that you just want to say, see cities that are the similar in size have the same murder rates with both parties running them?  Or how bout this, the overwhelming majority of murders in this country consist of 30 to 40 cities and most are run with the democrats controlling everything in the cities.   

The point is Democrats are no worse than Republicans in reducing murder rates. 

There are just more Democratic mayors of large cities.