2022-23 Coaching Search Thread

[Zeek 16,660]

On 10/31/2022 at 1:15 PM, Zeek said:

Updated  11/10/2022

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Lane Kiffin - I still believe he is the favorite to win the job if you're having to put money on a candidate. Ole Miss can't get him a contract longer than 4 years which makes their lives a lot harder. Let's say we wanted to give him $70m over 7 years; Ole Miss would then have to give Kiffin $17.5m annually to match that figure. Nick Saban only gets 9.9m this year for some context. Many believe that Kiffin would have the fastest turnaround out of any candidate mentioned. The fear of him leaving seems a little silly to me considering that in the history of Auburn football a head coach has never left for a better job. A more logical concern is that his high school recruiting has been a little unimpressive at Ole Miss. I do think it's fair to defend that by looking at what Kiffin has done with the portal and the players they have recruited (Judkins and their two freshman starting OTs have been stellar). Those that want Kiffin need Alabama to win this week and keep the Rebels out of the SEC Championship Game. 

Top Candidates

Dan Lanning - currently the head coach at Oregon, he is only 36 years old and has absolutely skyrocketed up from his starting point. Kirby Smart said he was the best recruiter he has ever had at Georgia. Oregon is currently vying for a playoff spot and their offense has been fun to watch. Known as a defensive mind, it is a little interesting that Oregon's defense hasn't been playing a little better than they are. Some "football minds" believe this really might be our best fit and smartest option. He is a name that won't click with regular recruits off the bat. Still, he has been around the successful programs and should know the blueprint. If he makes the playoffs that would truly throw off the timing of the process.

Hugh Freeze - his wins over BYU and Arkansas are impressive. Especially considering Liberty is on their fourth quarterback after a string of injuries this season. I think he would recruit consistently in the top 10 here but I'm not sure what the actual ceiling would be for him. There are some critiques about his baggage and even his coaching career (Kiffin has debatably done better at Ole Miss than Freeze ever did). One way or another, Freeze knows ball and would get Auburn to being at least respectable. We know that had Auburn made a change in February it would have been to Freeze who is likely the cheapest option and one you can get the earliest.

In Consideration & Likely to be Interviewed

Deion Sanders - the reality is he is a high reward/high risk candidate in the eyes of those that matter. He could be phenomenal for Auburn but the jump from an HBCU to the SEC West is absolutely massive. Another concern is that he has really had much better coaches and players than his competition. How would he do when his team is less talented? How would he interact with the PTB at Auburn? Would he embrace Auburn and the culture? My take is that he would (at the very least) improve the talent on our roster and bring a boat load of excitement and PR to the program. He will get a very serious look.

Mark Stoops - I will start with why he is in consideration before giving my thoughts. He has taken a cellar-dweller program and made them pretty competitive in the East. They play pretty consistently and he has managed to recruit and evaluate pretty well at a school where it's tough to bring in talent. He is respected and well known among coaching circles and among players as well. That being said, I think he harshly tanked his stock this season with a tough loss to Ole Miss, embarrassing loss to South Carolina, and then an absolute skull dragging by Tennessee. Will Levis has looked pedestrian after having a tremendous amount of preseason hype. Not a fan of this even being an option and honestly Stoops is currently under one of the best contracts in sports.

Jeff Grimes - well respected in coaching circles, knows and loves Auburn, affordable, and could likely leave very soon if announced as the guy. Could be the best candidate to repair our offensive line problems. Still, it's a little unknown how he would recruit and I think he wouldn't exactly excite the fanbase. Still if you're looking for long term consistency he might be the best option. His lack of head coaching experience and age could be a bit of a concern too.

Mike Leach - it annoys me that he is this high in the tiers. Cohen likes Leach and has been floating his name to gauge reactions. The board made it pretty clear that they're not fans of the idea. I do believe he will get an interview at the very least and I feel somewhat reassured that Cohen said "what works at Mississippi State might not work for Auburn."

Matt Rhule - he is one of president Roberts' favorite candidates. So it is likely he at least gets an interview and a look. I don't think he makes sense for Auburn right now. Though he rebuilt a Baylor that was in shambles and is still viewed as a solid offensive mind with name recognition. Recruiting and coaching in the SEC is very different (as we saw with Bryan Harsin).

Outside Shot if Auburn Feels Like Getting Weird

Sonny Dykes - maybe I am being a little pessimistic on his chances but he doesn't meet a lot of the criteria that I believe we need. He is doing really well at TCU this season but overall he is only (79-63) as a head coach. His offense has looked dynamic but he doesn't have a lot of connections to the southeast recruiting grounds. He is a hot name right now and Auburn will evaluate him.

Dave Aranda- I don't understand the specifics of why Aranda isn't higher on the list. From what I understand he is a little bit quirky and Baylor is letting him be himself and they seem very content together. It might be a non-starter but Auburn is definitely doing their due diligence.

Lance Leipold - no connections to the southeast is a concern but holy crap that dude has made Kansas solid. That is no small accomplishment. Buffalo also looked nice under him. It's a shame he didn't get bigger opportunities sooner considering he is already 58.

Mike Elko - similar to Leipold it is clear that he can coach with how Duke is looking this year. Yet again it is a guy with very little connections to the southeast, I think that it would be a very unlikely hire.

Clay Helton - I don't think Auburn is this dumb but his name has been floated out there so I'll address it. He played at Auburn and was the head coach at USC. Now he is at Georgia Southern. Don't see the reasoning but he is worth mentioning if Auburn goes full JABA.

Joe Whitt Jr. - has coached at Auburn, Louisville, Atlanta Falcons, Green Bay Packers, and the Dallas Cowboys. He is only 44 and pretty well respected. It would be a very outside of the box hire and recruiting would be a bit of a question. He knows football and has a great energy. Went to high school in Auburn as well so it would be a great story if it somehow worked out for Auburn.

*BONUS NAMES*

Auburn isn't stupid but they're putting feelers out there for all kinds of top tier coaches as well. With a situation like Brian Kelly a lot of people never thought a coach would leave Notre Dame for a program like LSU. So names like Ryan Day, Dabo Swinney, Luke Fickell and many more will receive feelers to see if the possibility is even there. I don't think we see any of them materialize but it really sounds like we are wide open on this search.

Updated with more information! There really is nothing concrete but so far I'm happy with how it seems that the search is unfolding. Really seems like we're entertaining all the options and trying to do so on a reasonable schedule.

[Barkchevious 75]

Going with your gut feeling, who do you all think we end up with?  My gut has been wrong the past 3 coaching hires but I feel like we end up with Freeze.  

[auburnatl1 5,556]

On 10/31/2022 at 2:15 PM, Zeek said:

Updated  11/10/2022

Favorite

Lane Kiffin - I still believe he is the favorite to win the job if you're having to put money on a candidate. Ole Miss can't get him a contract longer than 4 years which makes their lives a lot harder. Let's say we wanted to give him $70m over 7 years; Ole Miss would then have to give Kiffin $17.5m annually to match that figure. 

Can someone explain this math to me. I get that that ole miss can’t exceed 4 years and we can do 5 decades, but youre including the buyout into the annualized figures. Which means he’d have to get get fired at ole miss to make that relevant. Maybe the usc thing still haunts kiffin, but the odds of him being fired there are the same as a meteor strike. Otherwise the contract value is simply salary + incentives. Right?

[AUCE05 369]

I don't understand where the interest in Dan Lanning is coming from. He looked absolutely lost vs the only talented team he played this year. He won't have the Cal's at AU to pad his stats.  We aren't in a spot to allow someone to learn on the job. 

[DAG 34,093]

3 minutes ago, AUCE05 said:

I don't understand where the interest in Dan Lanning is coming from. He looked absolutely lost vs the only talented team he played this year. He won't have the Cal's at AU to pad his stats.  We aren't in a spot to allow someone to learn on the job. 

How would he be learning on the job? If he is learning on the job go ahead and eliminate Deion and Grimes.

With that being said , yes UGA humiliated them in the first game of the season. There is no denying that. Also, they have responded positively and now are full force to garner a playoff position with Bo playing as a heisman caliber candidate. He deserves credit for not letting one game cost them their season

Additionally, he is not new to the SEC. He learned and recruited for that team who embarrassed him in the first game. He has learned under one of the best defensive minds and this person called him one of his best recruiters . Dan Lanning is not chopped liver. 

[auburnatl1 5,556]

16 minutes ago, DAG said:

Additionally, he is not new to the SEC. He learned and recruited for that team who embarrassed him in the first game. He has learned under one of the best defensive minds and this person called him one of his best recruiters . Dan Lanning is not chopped liver. 

IMO If he keeping doing what he’s doing and has a strong recruiting class (especially with his sec/Kirby pedigree) he may be the most coveted coach by all sec teams by the end of next season. The Bo turn around is also impressive.

Edited November 10, 2022 by auburnatl1

[CCTAU 3,366]

1 hour ago, DAG said:

How would he be learning on the job? If he is learning on the job go ahead and eliminate Deion and Grimes.

With that being said , yes UGA humiliated them in the first game of the season. There is no denying that. Also, they have responded positively and now are full force to garner a playoff position with Bo playing as a heisman caliber candidate. He deserves credit for not letting one game cost them their season

Additionally, he is not new to the SEC. He learned and recruited for that team who embarrassed him in the first game. He has learned under one of the best defensive minds and this person called him one of his best recruiters . Dan Lanning is not chopped liver. 

As with Kiffen, Lanning’s value is a bit overstated. Other than that, both are fine candidates. 

[aucom96 1,648]

2 hours ago, Zeek said:

Leach

[Hank2020 3,231]

3 hours ago, auburnatl1 said:

Can someone explain this math to me. I get that that ole miss can’t exceed 4 years and we can do 5 decades, but youre including the buyout into the annualized figures. Which means he’d have to get get fired at ole miss to make that relevant. Maybe the usc thing still haunts kiffin, but the odds of him being fired there are the same as a meteor strike. Otherwise the contract value is simply salary + incentives. Right?

Who pays buyout?

[AUY2K 272]

Well Freeze all but came out and said he would come to Auburn so theirs our fall back guy.  He would be the cheapest to get out of all the candidates with head coaching experience.

[Auburn02 130]

7 hours ago, auburnatl1 said:

Can someone explain this math to me. I get that that ole miss can’t exceed 4 years and we can do 5 decades, but youre including the buyout into the annualized figures. Which means he’d have to get get fired at ole miss to make that relevant. Maybe the usc thing still haunts kiffin, but the odds of him being fired there are the same as a meteor strike. Otherwise the contract value is simply salary + incentives. Right?

Maybe I’m the one misunderstanding, but I read it as if Auburn offers him $70M guaranteed over 7 years and OM wants to match the total package, they would need to offer him a $70M 4-year deal ($17.5M per year). Nothing about buyouts that I’m seeing. 
 

But yes, it is my assumption that the hiring team (us) would need to pay any buyout from a new hire’s existing contract. 
 

[auburnatl1 5,556]

12 minutes ago, Auburn02 said:

Maybe I’m the one misunderstanding, but I read it as if Auburn offers him $70M guaranteed over 7 years and OM wants to match the total package, they would need to offer him a $70M 4-year deal ($17.5M per year). Nothing about buyouts that I’m seeing. 
 

But yes, it is my assumption that the hiring team (us) would need to pay any buyout from a new hire’s existing contract. 
 

It’s generally only about salary per year. $8m//10 years or $8m/4 years. $80m vs $32m “contract value”. but it’s still only pays $8m/yr.  The value of duration is if youre fired, they owe you the rest. The disadvantage of duration is if you get an offer from another team you want - they have to be willing to pay what left on the contract or your stuck.

[roe4christ 949]

I see that is the problem with Lane.  It's not about whether he's better than Deion or others but what it would cost to get him.  Not only are you talking about the high salary he would demand but add on to that the buyout that you would have to pay......all while being on the hook for two buyouts already.  Is Lane that much better?  Is he worth it?  I just don't know.  Again, it is not my money but it seems for that reason alone, I would not seriously consider Lane.  I have always maintained that Deion would be my preferred choice.  Having said that, I don't know what he would require in salary but I am sure it is better than what it would take to get Lane.  Is Deion a risk.......of course?  Would he bring in top talent immediately and recruit a good coaching staff......of course.  I just think this is the time to take the chance.  Maintaining status quo, which we are known for has not gotten us where we want to be.