10/15/22 Auburn Articles

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Phillip's gameday musings: Week 7

Phillip Marshall

4-5 minutes

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* For Auburn’s football team, today’s game at Ole Miss is as big as any this season. The Rebels are 6-0 and ranked No. 8, but they have the look of a team that is beatable. If Auburn can win and get to an open date, there could be some new energy. A third consecutive loss, on the other hand, will raise questions of whether this team can beat anybody on its schedule, other than perhaps Western Kentucky.

* Since a 43-34 loss to Mississippi State last season, in regulation against Power 5 opponents, Auburn has scored 17 points against South Carolina, 10 against Alabama, 12 against Penn State, 14 against Missouri, 17 against LSU and 10 against Georgia. That does not bode well for today’s game. A meaningless touchdown against Georgia when the Bulldogs led 42-3 is the only touchdown scored in the second halves of those games.

* It’s hard for me to grasp that Auburn is a two-touchdown underdog against Ole Miss and that most prognosticators expect the Rebels to beat that spread.

* Two questions: How healthy are edge Derick Hall, guard Alec Jackson and tackle Austin Troxell? All left last Saturday’s game at Georgia with injuries and did not return. Can Auburn’s frightfully thin deal with Ole Miss’ up-tempo offense for four quarters?

* Will a loss today result in the Auburn administration moving immediately on head coach Bryan Harsin? If it will, it is a tightly held secret. What will it mean if nothing happens this weekend? Nothing, really, other than the wait for action will go on.

* How much difference can a coach make? When Nick Saban arrived before the 2000 season, LSU had suffered through eight losing seasons in 11 years. Saban won an SEC championship in 2001 and a national championship in 2003.

* Tennessee has an Alabama problem much like Auburn has a Georgia problem. Tennessee is the only East Division team that plays Alabama every year. Even if the Vols win today in Knoxville and beat Georgia, they’d probably have to play Alabama again in the SEC Championship Game. Tennessee has lost 15 straight to Alabama

* In Harsin’s time as head coach, Auburn is 2-4 in SEC games at Jordan-Hare Stadium. On the road, it is 2-3.

* Could this be a breakout day for Auburn running back Tank Bigsby? He rushed for 140 yards in Auburn’s 31-20 win at Jordan-Hare Stadium last season and for 129 yards in Auburn’s 35-29 win in Oxford.

* That loss to Auburn was the last for Ole Miss at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium, where the Rebels have won 13 straight.

4COMMENTS

* Auburn will see what it missed out on today. Running back Quinshon Judkins leads the nation’s freshmen in rushing with 581 yards on 96 carries. From Pike Road, Alabama, he wanted to play for Auburn. Despite an early offer, Auburn cooled off on him and he went to Ole Miss.

* I had to laugh Friday night when the SMU-Navy game Friday night was delayed because the SMU horse mascot had to stop during a touchdown celebration and leave a pile of manure on the field. It reminded me of the 1972 Gator Bowl between Auburn and Colorado. Before the game (I think), Ralphie, Colorado's Buffalo mascot, traditionally ran from one end of the field to the other as his handlers held on to ropes or straps of some sort to keep him from getting loose. Ralphie came romping out and quickly shed his handlers. He ran unmolested to the other end of the field, turned and ran back. Along the way, he felt call of nature and dropped a large load of manure on the field.  It was the start of a bad day for Colorado. Auburn won 24-3.

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Auburn vs. Ole Miss by the numbers

Published: Oct. 15, 2022, 3:00 a.m.

7-9 minutes

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Auburn (3-3, 1-2) at No. 9 Ole Miss (6-0, 2-0)

11 a.m. CDT Saturday (ESPN)

Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Mississippi

1 7-0 record for Ole Miss during the SEC era, a mark the Rebels would own again if they defeat Auburn. Ole Miss won its first seven games in 2014. The Rebels later had to vacate those victories because of violations of NCAA rules.

1 Higher-ranked Ole Miss team has played Auburn. On Nov. 1, 2014, the No. 4 Tigers defeated the No. 7 Rebels 35-31. Ole Miss has played Auburn eight previous times as a ranked team when the Tigers were unranked. Auburn has won five of those games, although Saturday’s game is the first one in which Ole Miss is ranked better than 15th.

MORE SEC FOOTBALL BY THE NUMBERS:

· TOP 10 FOR WEEK 7

· TOP 10 FROM WEEK 6

2 Consecutive 100-yard rushing games for Auburn RB Tank Bigsby against Ole Miss. Bigsby ran for 129 yards in a 35-28 victory in 2020 and 140 in a 31-20 victory in 2021. Three Auburn players have rushed for 100 or more yards against the same opponent in at least three consecutive seasons. Carnell “Cadillac” Williams had 100-yard games against Mississippi State in 2002, 2003 and 2004, Bo Jackson had 100-yard games against Alabama in 1982, 1983, 1984 and 1985 and James Brooks had 100-yard games against Tennessee in 1977, 1978 and 1979. Auburn has had a 100-yard rusher in five of its past six games against Ole Miss.

2 Of the 10 players in the nation with two receptions of at least 60 yards are in Saturday’s game. Auburn RB Jarquez Hunter has receptions of 61 yards against LSU on Oct. 1 and 62 yards for a TD against Georgia on Oct. 8 from QB Robby Ashford. Ole Miss WR Jonathan Mingo had TD receptions of 71 and 72 yards from QB Jaxson Dart in last week’s victory over Vanderbilt.

2 TD passes have been yielded by the Auburn defense this season, tied with Illinois for the fewest in the nation. Ole Miss has scored TDs on 10 passes in 2022.

2 Points are needed by Anders Carlson to lift the Auburn kicker into sixth place on the SEC’s career list. Currently, Leigh Tiffin holds that spot with 385 points for Alabama from 2006 through 2009. Carlson ranks second in scoring in Auburn history to Daniel Carlson, who holds the SEC record with 480 points for the Tigers from 2014 through 2017.

3 Teams have a worse turnover margin than Auburn this season. With 13 turnovers and four takeaways, the Tigers are at minus-9. New Mexico State and Temple are at minus-10, and Stanford is at minus-11. No other SEC team is worse than minus-6 in turnover margin, including South Carolina, which has lost 15 turnovers this season.

6 Consecutive victories for Auburn over Ole Miss, with the Tigers leading the series 35-11. Auburn has a 13-3 record in Oxford with victories on the past four visits.

8 Consecutive seasons have included at least four losses for Auburn. The Tigers have had only one longer streak of at least four losses per season. From 1938 through 1952, Auburn lost at least four games in every season. Since posting a 12-2 record in 2013, Auburn has gone 8-5 in 2014, 7-6 in 2015, 8-5 in 2016, 10-4 in 2017, 8-5 in 2018, 9-4 in 2019, 6-5 in 2020 and 6-7 in 2021. The Tigers enter Saturday’s game with a 3-3 record in 2022.

10 Years since Auburn had fewer points and fewer rushing yards six games into a season than it does in 2022. The Tigers have scored 122 points and run for 889 yards this season. Those are the lowest six-game totals since 2012, when Auburn had 97 points and 753 rushing yards in a 1-5 start.

13 Consecutive victories in home games for Ole Miss, which hasn’t lost at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium since a 35-28 setback against Auburn on Oct. 24, 2020. It’s the Rebels’ longest winning streak in Oxford since a 21-game streak ended with a 7-3 loss to LSU on Oct. 31, 1959, when the Tigers’ Billy Cannon made his famous 89-yard punt return. Auburn has won its past four games in Oxford.

14 Third downs have been converted into first downs in the first quarter and 13 third downs have been converted into first downs in the remainder of the game by Auburn’s offense this season. The Tigers are 14-for-27 (52 percent) on third downs in the first quarter and 13-of-55 (24 percent) on third downs from the second quarter on. Auburn’s conversion rate gets worse as the game goes on – 6-for-18 in the second quarter, 5-for-20 in the third quarter, 2-for-16 in the fourth quarter and 0-for-1 in overtime. Auburn has outscored its opponents 38-7 in the first quarter and been outscored 143-84 in the remainder of its 2022 games.

16 Of the 22 Auburn-Ole Miss games this century have featured a Tigers ball-carrier with at least 100 rushing yards. Auburn has a 15-1 record in those games. Carnell “Cadillac” Williams rushed for 103 yards against the Rebels in 2003, but Auburn lost 24-20. In the six games this century without a 100-yard rusher, the Tigers have gone 3-3 against Ole Miss. Since the turn of the century, three Auburn RBs have had 200-yard games against Ole Miss – Ronnie Brown with 224 in 2002, Kamryn Pettway with 236 in 2016 and Kerryon Johnson with 204 in 2017. Auburn’s other 100-yard rushers against Ole Miss in the 2000s have been Rudi Johnson with 165 in 2000, Brown with 100 in 2004, Kenny Irons with 101 in 2005 and 106 in 2006, Ben Tate with 144 with 2009, Michael Dyer with 180 in 2010 and 177 in 2011, Nick Marshall with 140 in 2013, Cameron Artis-Payne with 138 in 2014, JaTarvious “Boobee” Whitlow with 170 in 2018 and Tank Bigsby with 129 in 2020 and 140 in 2021.

21 Rushing TDs have been scored by Ole Miss in 2022, tied with Georgia for the most in the nation. The Auburn defense has yielded 16 rushing TDs in 2022, the most in the SEC. Only four teams in the nation have allowed more rushing TDs than the Tigers this season.

65 Receptions for John Samuel Shenker, the most for a tight end in Auburn history. Shenker set the school career mark with five receptions against Georgia last week. Shenker surpassed the record of 63 established by Cooper Wallace from 2002 through 2005. Wallace remains the record-holder for receiving yards by an Auburn tight end with 829. Shenker has 750 receiving yards in his career.

123 Consecutive games without being shut out for Auburn, the second-longest streak in school history. Auburn’s most recent shutout loss came 49-0 to Alabama on Nov. 17, 2012. Auburn’s record scoring streak lasted 149 games, starting with a 55-16 victory over Richmond on Oct. 4, 1980, and ending with a 17-0 loss to Alabama on Nov. 26, 1992.

247 Yards and two TDs on nine receptions for Ole Miss WR Jonathan Mingo in a 52-28 victory over Vanderbilt last week to set a school single-game record. Mingo broke the mark of 238 yards that Elijah Moore had set when he had a school-record 14 receptions against Vanderbilt in 2020. Mingo had TD receptions of 71 and 72 yards from QB Jaxson Dart in the second half against the Commodores.

581 Yards and eight TDs on 96 rushing attempts for Ole Miss RB Quinshon Judkins, the most rushing yards in the nation for a freshman in 2022.

FOR MORE OF AL.COM’S COVERAGE OF THE SEC, GO TO OUR SEC PAGE

Mark Inabinett is a sports reporter for Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter at @AMarkG1.

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What to Watch: Tigers need major improvements to win at Ole Miss

Mark Murphy

4-6 minutes

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AUBURN, Alabama–For second straight week the Tigers are a double-digits underdog as they hit the road for an SEC West football matchup. This week’s contest is against ninth-ranked Ole Miss, a team that has had plenty of success on both sides of the line of scrimmage.

The Rebels are the third ranked opponent for the Auburn football team, which fell at home 41-12 to Penn State and was outscored 42-10 last Saturday at Georgia.

As the Tigers prepare to take the field for an 11 a.m. CDT kickoff (ESPN TV coverage) at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium vs. the 6-0 Rebels, here are What to Watch items for the visitors:

* Coach Lane Kiffin has settled on Southern Cal transfer Jaxson Dart as his quarterback, which gives Ole Miss a dual-threat guy at the position. Dart has run the ball 39 times and is averaging 6.6 yards per carry. Winning a battle vs. Luke Altmyer for the starting role, he has completed 91-143 passes for 1,358 yards with eight touchdowns. The Auburn linebackers and defensive backs will need to be aware of Dart’s running ability and how the Tigers do in defending that is a What to Watch factor.

* The Auburn secondary has a matchup challenge vs. Ole Miss wide receiver Jonathan Mingo, who leads the SEC in receiving yardage at 507. The 6-2, 225 senior is averaging 22 yards per catch and has seven receptions of 30 yards or longer. Last week he scored on receptions of 72 and 71 yards so how the Tigers deal with the physical and fast wideout is a What to Watch item this week.

* Third downs have been a problem for the Tigers on both offense and defense. Even taking into consideration that Ole Miss has played a weaker schedule, the differences between the Tigers and Rebels stand out.

The Ole Miss is ranked sixth in the country with a 53.2 percent success rate on third down conversions. Auburn’s defense is 10th in the league on third down stops at 38.1 percent.

Auburn’s offense is last in the league in third down conversions at 32.9 percent and will be going against an Ole Miss defense that stops opponents 35 percent of the time, which ranks seventh in the SEC. Whether or not the Tigers can improve on third downs, especially offensively, is a What to Watch biggie for this week’s matchup.

* If the game is close at halftime, can Auburn avoid a second half scoring slump? The Rebels have outscored opponents 73-10 in the third quarter and have been outscored 25-21 in the fourth quarter.

Continuing a trend to finish the 2021 schedule, the Tigers have struggled after intermission. This year they have been outscored 31-27 in the third quarter and 46-20 in fourth periods. Whether or not Coach Bryan Harsin’s guys can turn this around is a What to Watch factor for game seven.

* Ole Miss coach Lane Kiffin has fussed about his quarterback making ill-advised passes although Dart’s completion percentage (63.6) is solid and he has thrown just five interceptions in 143 attempts. On defense the Tigers have just two interceptions on 181 passes thrown by opponents.

Auburn needs to take a big step forward in this part of its performance, and that needs to happen as soon as possible. How many interceptions/takeaways the Auburn defense can muster this week is a What to Watch factor.

Marcus Harris (50) and his teammates will face an Ole Miss offense averaging 490.3 yards per game. (Photo: Greg McWilliams, Inside the Auburn Tigers, 247Sports)

* Whether it is improving a tepid ground game or doing a better job of getting the football into the hands of receivers who can make big plays, the Auburn offense desperately needs to improve this part of the play.

Jarquez Hunter is averaging 22.5 yards per reception and has scored twice as a receiver, but has only caught eight passes. Auburn’s top receiver for yardage gained, Ja'Varrius Johnson, is averaging 19.1 yards per reception, but is making less than three catches a game. Both of those players need to be a bigger part of the offensive attack.

8COMMENTS

The Tigers are averaging 367 total yards per game. Among SEC teams only Kentucky and Texas A&M are ranked below Auburn total yardage. Improving that number is a What to Watch biggie for this team on Saturday as well as the rest of the season.

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Where Bryan Harsin’s 2022 salary, buyout rank nationally, in the SEC

Published: Oct. 13, 2022, 9:32 a.m.

4-5 minutes

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Bryan Harsin is in the second year of a six-year, $31.5 million deal at Auburn, and while the program is still waiting for its return on investment on the field, Harsin has cashed in as the nation’s 25th-highest paid college coach.

Harsin is earning $5.1 million in Year 2 on the Plains, placing him in the top-25 nationally among college coaches, according to USA Today’s annual database of coaching salaries. Harsin’s $5.1 million, in accordance with his contract, is $100,000 more than he earned in the first year of his deal after being hired away from his alma mater, Boise State.

Read more Auburn football: “They’re my enemy until the end of the game”: Two Auburn transfers set to greet Tigers at Ole Miss

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His salary for the 2022 season also puts him 10th among SEC coaches, behind Alabama’s Nick Saban ($10.957 million; first nationally), Georgia’s Kirby Smart ($10,253,600; third nationally), LSU’s Brian Kelly ($9.81 million; fourth nationally), Texas A&M’s Jimbo Fisher ($9 million; sixth nationally), Florida’s Billy Napier ($7.27 million; 11th nationally), Ole Miss’ Lane Kiffin ($7.25 million; 12th nationally), Kentucky’s Mark Stoops ($6,763,600; 15th nationally), Arkansas’ Sam Pittman ($6 million; 17th nationally) and Mississippi State’s Mike Leach ($5.5 million; 21st nationally).

Harsin is a combined 2-6 against the SEC coaches earning more than him. He has yet to face Napier or Stoops, and the two wins came last season against Kiffin and Pittman, just prior to Auburn’s backslide in the final month of the season.

That downward trajectory for the Tigers under Harsin has carried over into this season. Auburn is just 3-3 at the halfway mark of its schedule, with a 1-2 record in SEC play. The team is 3-8 in its last 11 games, with just one Power 5 win during that span — an overtime escape against Missouri to open SEC play this season.

Those struggles have left Harsin with a 9-10 overall record as Auburn’s coach, including a 4-7 mark in SEC play and a 4-9 record against Power 5 competition. Harsin is one of only two coaches in the top-25 of annual salaries with an overall losing record at their current school, joining UCLA’s Chip Kelly, who is 24-25 with the Bruins but off to a 6-0 start this season.

Pressure has mounted on Harsin in the last month, as an offseason of mending fences following the university’s February inquiry into his handling of the program has eroded with the team’s on-field struggles, beginning with a blowout loss to Penn State in Week 3 — the Tigers’ worst home loss in a decade — and continuing last week with the team’s worst loss to rival Georgia since 2012.

Harsin is, undoubtedly, on the hotseat as Auburn prepares for the second half of its schedule, beginning with Saturday’s trip to Oxford, Miss., to take on No. 9 Ole Miss ahead of the bye week. Should Auburn part ways with the embattled coach, his buyout as of Dec. 1 would be $15,277,500 — which comes out to 70 percent of the remaining value on his contract.

That number would be slightly higher if Auburn were to make a coaching change before the end of the regular season.

Harsin’s buyout as of Dec. 1 ranks 30th nationally among college coaches, though it’s worth noting that not every program provided buyout numbers to USA Today. Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Arkansas were among the SEC programs to not include buyout terms in the data provided to USA Today. Without including Kiffin, Leach and Pittman — who all earn more than Harsin this season — Harsin’s buyout is the eighth highest among SEC coaches this year.

The league coaches with higher buyouts than Harsin as of Dec. 1 are Smart ($103,104,167), Fisher ($86.7 million), Kelly ($78,622,917), Saban ($43.2 million), Napier ($39,000,833), Stoops ($31,078,125) and Tennessee’s Josh Heupel ($25,833,333).

Tom Green is an Auburn beat reporter for Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @Tomas_Verde.

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Will Lane Kiffin be auditioning for the Auburn job on Saturday?

 

 

The Auburn Tigers travel to Ole Miss on Saturday in hopes to snap a two-game losing skid and to extend their current winning streak over the Rebels to seven games.

The subplot in this game, of course, is Bryan Harsin’s job security. Fans are growing more and more frustrated with the trajectory of the football program, and Harsin needs to put on an epic performance in order to loosen the pressure that surrounds him.

From recruiting to on-field performance, there has been plenty to gripe about when it comes to the current state of Auburn Football. In a recent episode of “The Aaron Torres Podcast”, host Aaron Torres of FOX Sports says that Auburn’s 3-3 record is actually surprising.

“There is no shame in losing to Georgia, but they got destroyed by Penn State at home, they lost to LSU when they had a 17-point lead, and they probably should have lost to Missouri,” Torres said. “At best, they should realistically be 2-4 with wins over Mercer and San Jose State. (Auburn has) been completely underwhelming. It’s clear, (Harsin) is not the guy, he’s not going to be the guy.”

If Harsin is not the right guy for the job, then who is? Torres suggests that the perfect fit for Auburn could be across the sideline from Harsin on Saturday morning.

Ole Miss head coach Lane Kiffin’s name has been thrown around by fans as a potential replacement for Harsin if he were to get fired at the season’s end. Could Saturday’s result play a role in the future of Auburn football? Torres says that it is something to watch for.

“I can tell you, I talked to someone pretty high up in that college football coaching ecosystem that said that they believe that Kiffin would be interested in the job,” Torres said. “If he is potentially interested, and we knew that Auburn is going to have a vacancy, it is worth discussing right now. Is it possible that Saturday serves as an audition for Lane Kiffin to be the next Auburn head coach?”

If Kiffin were to pull off the win on Saturday, it would be the first time in his head coaching career that he has defeated Auburn. He currently holds an 0-3 record over the Tigers and is 0-2 as the leader of the Ole Miss football program.

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Expert Picks: Does Auburn stun Ole Miss on Saturday?

Story originally appeared on Auburn W

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Five offensive keys for Auburn to upset Ole Miss

JD McCarthy

4-5 minutes

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Auburn will need to have their best offensive performance of the season Saturday if the Tigers are going to upset the Ole Miss Rebels.

The Tigers are 14.5-point underdogs in the game and there are several reasons why they could struggle in Oxford, Mississippi.

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Auburn’s offense has struggled to score all season, ranking last in the SEC with 20.3 points per game, and will be facing an improved Ole Miss defense. They are allowing just 14.5 points per game and are third in the SEC with 16.0 sacks.

The Tigers will need to be better this weekend if they are going to pull off the upset, here are five offensive keys for Auburn to stun the Rebels.

Auburn Tigers quarterback Robby Ashford (9) passes behind offensive lineman Brandon Council (71), offensive lineman Kilian Zierer (77) and offensive lineman Kameron Stutts (62) against LSU as the Auburn Tigers take on the LSU Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Ala., on Saturday, Oct. 1, 2022.
Aulsu14

It’s no secret that Auburn’s offensive line has had a disappointing season and injuries have only made it worse. The Tiger’s ground game has been unable to get going all season and a major reason why is that Tank Bigsby and Jarquez Hunter are frequently getting hit behind the line of scrimmage. It has not been much better in the passing game with Robby Ashford constantly under pressure.

For the Tigers to upset the Rebels they will have to open lanes for the running backs and keep the pocket clean for Ashford. If they do not it will be another tough day for the offense.

John Reed-USA TODAY Sports

Another major weakness of the offense has been the Tiger’s tendency to turn the ball over. Their -9 turnover margin is the fourth worst in the country.

One of the main reasons has been Ashford, who has three interceptions and seven fumbles, even if not all of them have been recovered by the defense.

The Rebel’s offense is too good for Auburn to give them extra chances and they can not afford to waste their opportunities.

Todd Van Emst / AU Athletics

It is no secret that Ole Miss likes to play fast on offense. One of the advantages of this is that it can prevent the defense from making substitutions and tire out the defenders.

One way the offense can help prevent this is by having several long sustained drives. Don’t get me wrong, a quick drive that results in points is still a great drive for Auburn but too many three-and-outs or short drives will put Auburn’s defense in a bad spot, and we saw what happened last week against Georgia.

Auburn Tigers quarterback Robby Ashford (9) fumbles as he is sacked by Missouri Tigers defensive lineman Isaiah McGuire (9) as Auburn Tigers take on Missouri Tigers at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Ala., on Saturday, Sept. 24, 2022.

Negative plays are going to happen but Auburn is allowing far too many. They are giving up 6.0 tackles for loss per worse and it would be far more were it not for the running ability of Bigsby, Hunter, and Ashford. The Rebels are the second-best SEC team at forcing tackles for loss, making 40.0 in their six games.

Auburn has also hurt itself with penalties, they committed 10 for 60 yards against Georgia, and for a while, they were averaging one false start per offensive drive.

The Tiger’s offense can not afford to make life any harder for themselves and they have to clear up the negative plays Saturday.

Zach Bland/AU Athletics

Johnson is my offensive x-factor for the game and he has the chance to be a game-changer. He is tied for or leads the team in receptions (17), yards (325), yards per game (54.17), and yards per catch (19.12).

With teams setting up to stop Auburn’s ground game, Johnson and Ashford have shown the ability to connect on some deep passes and they will need to do so several times Saturday in Oxford.

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