aubiefifty 18,248 Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 ESPN’s College Football Power Index projects losing season for Auburn Published: Sep. 12, 2022, 11:45 a.m. 3-4 minutes By Nubyjas Wilborn | nwilborn@al.com Auburn’s 24-16 win against San Jose on Saturday didn’t inspire confidence based on ESPN’s latest College Football Power Index ranking. The Tigers (2-0) dropped from #27 after the Week 1 win against Mercer to #40 heading into this week’s action. ESPN developed the College Football Power Index in 2013 to predict game and season outcomes. FPI also measures team strength. The index ranked Auburn #11 before the season started. FPI rating for teams based on anticipated offensive, defensive, and special teams elements. FPI gave Auburn a 91.5% of winning at least six games and projected 7.4 wins to 4.6 losses for the Tigers before the season started. The number dropped to giving Auburn a 74 percent chance of winning at least six games after the 26-point victory over Mercer. Last week ESPN’s FPI had Auburn with a projected win total of 6.4 compared to a possible 5.6 losses. Auburn is undefeated after two games; however, the FPI projects some doom and gloom for the remainder of Bryan Harsin’s second season on the Plains. Gone is the nearly 92% chance of winning six or more games. Now it’s a 55.4% chance, according to this week’s rankings. Another troubling movement is the projected record of 5.7 wins to 6.3 losses. Struggling to score points against San Jose State contributes to the Tigers having a 56.4 percent offensive efficiency rating, which is 62nd in the country. Auburn’s defensive efficiency rating is 92nd at 44.2 %, whereas Georgia is #1 at 95.9%. UGA shut out Samford last week and allowed only a field goal against Oregon in the week one game. Auburn’s FPI dropped from 10.3 last week to 7.3 after the San Jose State win. FPI ratings are based on the expected point margin versus an average opponent on a neutral field. ESPN uses over 20,000 simulations to create its metrics. As bad as all of this sounds, the Tigers’ opportunity to change the projections starts with Saturday’s (2:30 pm CT CBS) game against No. 22 Penn State at Jordan-Hare. The Nittany Lions are 2-0, and the ESPN College Football Power Index ranks them #13 with a projected 8.3-3.4 record. Playing Mercer and San Jose has the Tigers with a #124 strength of schedule. It gets real for the Tigers starting the Nittany Lions because the remaining schedule is the strongest in the country. According to several sportsbooks, Vegas sees the Nittany Lions as a three-point favorite. ESPN’s FPI gives the Tigers a 38.3% chance of beating Penn State. “We have to focus on ourselves. We must make sure we have our game plans down and understand it better. We coach it better and rep it better in practice,” Harsin said after the San Jose win. “We find ways to improve our football team, and that would’ve been the goal if we won by 50 or by a score. Our mindset has to be about us finding ways to improve each week. We have to because our opponents are getting better.” Nubyjas Wilborn covers Auburn for Alabama Media Group. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aubiefifty 18,248 Posted September 12, 2022 Author Share Posted September 12, 2022 for the record i will just pull harder for our boys. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SumterAubie 3,086 Posted September 12, 2022 Share Posted September 12, 2022 Yeah. I hope this past weekend was quite a bit of taking SJSt for granted. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post cbo 8,728 Posted September 13, 2022 Popular Post Share Posted September 13, 2022 This changes everything. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woodford 3,732 Posted September 13, 2022 Share Posted September 13, 2022 16 minutes ago, cbo said: This changes everything. Again, I read this in Norm's voice. Please don't ever change your avatar lol 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JDUBB4AU 5,287 Posted September 13, 2022 Share Posted September 13, 2022 26 minutes ago, cbo said: This changes everything. This got me . So good man lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swamp Eagle 5,269 Posted September 13, 2022 Share Posted September 13, 2022 That’s a Captain Obvious index if I ever saw one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUinMS9528 1,086 Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 Yeah, we haven’t played well at all. We’ve got to really step it up to finish with a winning record. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Swamp Eagle 5,269 Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 People will get their feelings hurt, but there’s not a team left on the schedule that can’t beat us at this point. Can the team change that? Sure, but they better start soon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AUinMS9528 1,086 Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 9 hours ago, Swamp Eagle said: People will get their feelings hurt, but there’s not a team left on the schedule that can’t beat us at this point. Can the team change that? Sure, but they better start soon. Mizzou and WKU are our best chances to get to 4 wins. After that I start scratching my head. 😬🤦♂️ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AuburnEagle79 2,188 Posted September 14, 2022 Share Posted September 14, 2022 "Journalists" at AL.com were aroused at learning we were now projected for a losing season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now