Where is Auburn on ESPN’s College Football Power Index?

[aubiefifty 18,248]

Where is Auburn on ESPN’s College Football Power Index?

Published: Sep. 06, 2022, 12:05 p.m.

4 minutes

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By

• Nubyjas Wilborn | nwilborn@al.com

College football is back. Auburn (1-0) looks to build on the momentum gained from last Saturday’s 42-16 win against Mercer. Bryan Harsin got his second season on the Plains off to a good start. He hopes the good vibes continue this Saturday (6:30 pm CT ESPN U) when San Jose State comes to Jordan-Hare.

With the return of football comes various rankings. ESPN developed the College Football Power Index in 2013 to predict game and season outcomes. FPI also measures team strength. The index ranked Auburn #11 before the season started.

The Tigers are ranked #27 in the College Football Power Index after the week one victory against Mercer. Alabama is #1, Georgia is #2 after the Crimson Tide beat Utah State 55-0, and the Bulldogs downed Oregon 49-3 last week.

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What we learned from Auburn’s 42-16 win against Mercer

ESPN has Auburn with a 10.3 FPI rating. The FPI ratings are based on the expected point margin versus an average opponent on a neutral field. The network uses over 20,000 simulations to create its metrics. San Jose State has a #113 ranking, and their FPI is -12.3 after their week one win against Portland State.

San Jose State has a 3.7 percent chance of beating the Tigers, according to ESPN’s FPI. Harsin knows San Jose State well from coaching at Boise State in the Mountain West Conference. He’s not taking the Spartans lightly, even with his team projected as a three-touchdown favorite on Vegas Sportsbooks.

They do a really good job of game planning. That’s one thing. And they’re always physical, and their guys play hard. So no doubt about it, that’s exactly what we’ll get, Harsin said on Monday during a press conference. “And they will have a plan to try to attack us, and we just have to make sure that we’re ready, and we focus on the things that we have to do to get ourselves prepared to play our best football in this second game.”

Auburn has the most vigorous remaining schedule, with games against Georgia, Alabama, Ole Miss, Arkansas, Penn State, Texas A&M, and Mississippi State looming. ESPN’s FPI has Auburn with a 74 percent chance of winning at least six games.

The Tigers started the season with a 91.5% of winning at least six games and a projected record of 7.4 wins to 4.6 losses. After beating Mercer by 26, the FPI has Auburn with a projected win total of 6.4 compared to a possible 5.6 losses.

FPI rating for teams is based on anticipated offensive, defensive, and special teams elements. Auburn dominated nearly every statistical category against Mercer except for turnovers. Starting quarterback, T.J. Finley threw two interceptions against the Bears. The Tigers also allowed two red-zone touchdowns, albeit the second came with less than 30 seconds left in the game.

Harsin hopes to improve on both going forward.

“I thought we did some good things. We did not win the turnover battle,” Harsin said. That was one area that we have to improve on. We did run the ball effectively. And then we weren’t very good in the red zone in a couple of areas on the defensive side. So we addressed that in the meetings. We talked about it on the field. It’s something that we still have to keep emphasizing going into this second week.”

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[AU-24 3,130]

How on earth is thuga not number one, when they beat the number 11 ranked team in the nation by 46 points?

[AUinMS9528 1,086]

The FPI algorithms are strange.  We took a pretty serious hit after the Mercer game.   LSU, after losing to FSU, is now predicted to beat us.   MSU is now predicted to beat us at 71.2%!!!!  Then the very next week we’re predicted to beat TAMU.   Ole Miss didn’t look good, but they’re predicted to beat us.   Arky looked pretty good, and we’re predicted to beat them.   It just seems odd to me.  The most consistent factor I could see is there is a significant bump for being the home team.  🤷‍♂️

[TigerHorn 1,385]

3 hours ago, AUinMS9528 said:

The FPI algorithms are strange.  We took a pretty serious hit after the Mercer game.   LSU, after losing to FSU, is now predicted to beat us.   MSU is now predicted to beat us at 71.2%!!!!  Then the very next week we’re predicted to beat TAMU.   Ole Miss didn’t look good, but they’re predicted to beat us.   Arky looked pretty good, and we’re predicted to beat them.   It just seems odd to me.  The most consistent factor I could see is there is a significant bump for being the home team.  🤷‍♂️

In a simulation, it's all about the ability of the math to converge, which it can't until there is enough data to work from. For the first, I'd guess, 3-4 weeks of the season, this simulation should show some gyrations before settling down. People don't think computer models be like they be, but they do.....

[AUinMS9528 1,086]

3 hours ago, TigerHorn said:

should show some gyrations before settling down

We could have some fun with this statement.  🤣🤣🤣

[AU-24 3,130]

21 hours ago, AUinMS9528 said:

The FPI algorithms are strange.  We took a pretty serious hit after the Mercer game.   LSU, after losing to FSU, is now predicted to beat us.   MSU is now predicted to beat us at 71.2%!!!!  Then the very next week we’re predicted to beat TAMU.   Ole Miss didn’t look good, but they’re predicted to beat us.   Arky looked pretty good, and we’re predicted to beat them.   It just seems odd to me.  The most consistent factor I could see is there is a significant bump for being the home team.  🤷‍♂️

I totally get your point, but we did not cover against Mercer at home, thus we take a hit. Georgia beats the tar out of the 11th ranked team, and they remain number two. Alabama beats a Powderpuff and is number one. Regardless of what logarithm they are using, it makes no sense.

[WDE_OxPx_2010 5,473]

On 9/8/2022 at 7:34 AM, AUinMS9528 said:

The FPI algorithms are strange.  We took a pretty serious hit after the Mercer game.   LSU, after losing to FSU, is now predicted to beat us.   MSU is now predicted to beat us at 71.2%!!!!  Then the very next week we’re predicted to beat TAMU.   Ole Miss didn’t look good, but they’re predicted to beat us.   Arky looked pretty good, and we’re predicted to beat them.   It just seems odd to me.  The most consistent factor I could see is there is a significant bump for being the home team.  🤷‍♂️

 

3 hours ago, AU-24 said:

I totally get your point, but we did not cover against Mercer at home, thus we take a hit. Georgia beats the tar out of the 11th ranked team, and they remain number two. Alabama beats a Powderpuff and is number one. Regardless of what logarithm they are using, it makes no sense.

The only algorithm that matters: wins and losses. We're in control of that.