2022 record prediction scenarios

[AUght2win 6,919]

1 hour ago, 80Tiger said:

Wow. You guys are a depressing lot. Looks lit the overall consensus is 6-6. Ouch.

We are 6-6 now and losing a lot, while the schedule is more difficult. If we do win 8 or 9, Harsin will really have done a great job.

[AUwent 3,784]

7 minutes ago, AUght2win said:

We are 6-6 now and losing a lot, while the schedule is more difficult. If we do win 8 or 9, Harsin will really have done a great job.

Yeah, it's just not a good recipe for a successful coaching tenure when you're set up to do worse in the second year. Depressing when doth look at how Pittman, Kiffin and Leach all improved in their second years.

Edited December 23, 2021 by AUwent

[AUloggerhead 2,316]

2 hours ago, 80Tiger said:

Wow. You guys are a depressing lot. Looks lit the overall consensus is 6-6. Ouch.

No, no.  You're missing the point.  These predictions about next year (before this season is even over) show remarkable foresight -- almost as impressive as the post-game expert hindsight when discussing what play should have been run.  

[hutchids 227]

5-7 or 6-6. Offensive line and quarterback are still being rebuilt. No deep threat receiver either. Highlights will be Tank and dbs. 

[aubiefifty 17,487]

On 12/23/2021 at 12:26 PM, steeleagle said:

I'm not sure why all this D success relies on Owen. He was not the best LB out there. McClain was. I also recall him having injuries at times. So I'm not sure we can count on him for 12 games manning the LB corp.

I like Pappoe's speed ofc, but other than that he is not a major disruptor IMO.

I agree with the 5-7 to 7-5 range.

I don't see at all a 9-3 schedule with all the away games we got in the west and w/ GA still.

8-4 is max if we bring in a quality TR starter.

what happened to steiner? all i heard when we got him is he is a beast and a couple of guys said they thought he would be better than pappoe? i remember most of the board wanting him really bad and then super excited when he signed. now i never hear anything about him.

[aubiefifty 17,487]

On 12/23/2021 at 5:34 PM, AUloggerhead said:

No, no.  You're missing the point.  These predictions about next year (before this season is even over) show remarkable foresight -- almost as impressive as the post-game expert hindsight when discussing what play should have been run.  

i love your avie! foghorn leghorn is one bad dude. big bird might not be the baddest bird on the fam anymore. can you take him?

[Mikey 16,781]

5 hours ago, aubiefifty said:

what happened to steiner? all i heard when we got him is he is a beast and a couple of guys said they thought he would be better than pappoe? i remember most of the board wanting him really bad and then super excited when he signed. now i never hear anything about him.

Cam Riley has seen the most playing time of the three linebackers we signed that year. I think Steiner and Tisdol have seen some limited duty on special teams. Message board opinions to the contrary, Steiner and Tisdol were both fall back prospects after two more highly regarded players de-committed and went elsewhere. Riley is the only one we wanted from the start who stuck with us.

[au302 2,669]

As of right now, 5 wins or less. Good news is that we won't have a true idea of the roster until July most likely. I will say that I believe the defense can still be good. DB will be Mason players with a few exceptions. DL was solid last year and is getting deeper. Eason has done a good job. Lot depends on if Wooden and Hall come back. Huge concern is LB. Can Riley and one of Steiner/Tisdol step up? We need an EDGE and Mike in the portal badly.

On offense, it all comes down to OL and QB. That's what separates this team from potentially 8 wins or a 2012 like season. We know OL will probably be 4 new faces besides Jones. The super selective portal OL approach will either be a total catastrophe or a stroke of genius.

 For QB, my prediction is that the transfer starts. He ain't coming here to sit. Geriner will turn heads during spring. He'll most likely run scout team, but I could see him pulling a Jarquez too and making a move. Whichever of TJ and DD is behind the other on the depth chart leaves after spring. The bowl game is absolutely huge for those two. At that point, we either grab a second QB in the summer, or Sawyer Pate is "third string", with Geriner being the guy that would come in if the first two went down.

[Mikey 16,781]

10 hours ago, au302 said:

Whichever of TJ and DD is behind the other on the depth chart leaves after spring.

Remember, if TJ leaves he'll have to sit  year unless he goes to a lower division. About D. Davis: This staff's handling of most of our better recruits this past season is a bit of a puzzle. I suppose it's part of some plan, but Davis, Brooks, Harvey and Hunter not seeing the field at all when they could have played in four games and still redshirted is puzzling.

[au302 2,669]

48 minutes ago, Mikey said:

Remember, if TJ leaves he'll have to sit  year unless he goes to a lower division. About D. Davis: This staff's handling of most of our better recruits this past season is a bit of a puzzle. I suppose it's part of some plan, but Davis, Brooks, Harvey and Hunter not seeing the field at all when they could have played in four games and still redshirted is puzzling.

Maybe just not ready and other players in front is my guess. Jarquez jumped Shivers by week two and King passed got reps as the season went along, so I don't buy the rumor that he's against playing freshmen. Interested to see if more from the '22 class get some immediate action this year 

[Win4AU 4,056]

On 12/23/2021 at 8:54 AM, CT Tiger said:

Here's the 2022 schedule for convenience. 

I'm assuming Auburn lands a QB and 2 decent Olinemen from the portal.

Mercer and Alcorn easy wins 2-0

Penn State at home.  I'm starting to think Penn State can't break the "glass ceiling" even with all the top recruits.  Auburn win because of crowd.  Maybe "White" out?

Missouri will be better but were pretty bad this year.  Auburn wins at home

LSU will be interesting.  They have lost a ton of talent and are starting over at a lot of key positions.  Another close Auburn win. 5-0

Georgia L.  They will still be stacked and should return JT Daniels at QB.  Also Athens is the new Baton Rouge.  Last win 2005.

Ole Miss.  Depending on who the new QB is will determine a lot.  Auburn has had a lot of luck against Ole Miss so going Auburn W. 6-1

Arkansas will be tough but win at home 7-1

Miss State is an intriguing team.  Will Rogers coming back.  At Starkville.  Gonna go L for Auburn

Texas A&M will be really good again.  This will be a slobber knocker but Auburn still can't compete in the trenches on the Offensive side.  L for Auburn 7-3

Western Kentucky - nice game before Iron Bowl

Bama - L.  At Tuscaloosa is always tough.  Auburn is a year away from competing on the road still with Bama, UGA, and Texas A&M.

Bowl in Florida somewhere at 8-4.  9-3 if I'm overestimating Miss State.

If Auburn can turn that record in with a top 7 recruiting class and then they will carry a lot of momentum into 2023.  This could all get blown up whenever Texas and Oklahoma arrive.  

 

[Win4AU 4,056]

On 12/22/2021 at 2:14 PM, AUght2win said:

Thought this might be an interesting way to get people's predictions for next season. Even after ENSD, there are still a ton of uncertainties for Auburn to sort out before the 2022 season. So I'll lay out some different scenarios below. Feel free to put a W-L prediction or elaborate on what you think will happen in each case. 

Auburn's 2022 season if...

TJ Finley is the starter: 5-7.  I don't see how this can go well for the long term

Dematrius Davis is the starter:  Hard to say without seeing him against real competition. 4-8? 6-6 best case?

Holden Geriner is the starter: Might actually be best choice of the 3.  Would be a sign that Auburn is starting from scratch and building. 6-6, 8-4

A transfer QB beats out all players on the current roster: Most probable.  9-3 probably best case.  10-2 if everything fell just right.

No WRs are brought in through the portal:  Not as big deal as other positions.  WRs 2nd year in the system should look better.

No OL are brought in through the portal:  Auburn needs 2-3 Oline transfers that aren't projects.  If they get those 8-4,9-3.  without 7-5 

No defensive starters are brought in through the portal:  Already happened so moot

Hall, Wooden, and Owen Pappoe return: Hall and Pappoe would be huge.  Need linebackers who can line up players correctly.  Almost was a problem GA State.

Those three don't return: Might cost Auburn a win early on.  7-5 instead of a 8-4

CBH calls plays:  Not sure how big of a deal that would be.  8-4

CBH doesn't call plays:  8-4

How can Auburn win 9+ games:  Only loses against Bama, UGA, and TaMu

How can they lose 7+ games:  Auburn doesn't have a competent QB and offenses turns offensive.  Win the cupcakes and maybe a Missouri, Arkansas, Ole Miss, or Miss State

Actual prediction of record: 8-4

 

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

12 minutes ago, Win4AU said:

 

Mercer and Alcorn easy wins 2-0

 

 

Yep Alcorn is really easy.😀

[Win4AU 4,056]

Just now, Proud Tiger said:

Yep Alcorn is really easy.😀

Haha.  Excuse me.  San Jose State

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

Sadly I think we will be 5-7 and maybe even 4-8. And Slimebaum will be saying Harsin is on the hot seat. Now I'm getting depressed thinking about it.

Edited December 27, 2021 by Proud Tiger

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

1 minute ago, Win4AU said:

Haha.  Excuse me.  San Jose State

San Jose may not be as easy as one would think.

[AUstere 13]

Ceiling:  7-5 (losses to PSU, UGA, TAMU, Turds, Ole Miss)

Basement: 5-7 (losses to above plus LSU & MSU)

Expected:  6-6

 

[AUwent 3,784]

8 hours ago, AUstere said:

Ceiling:  7-5 (losses to PSU, UGA, TAMU, Turds, Ole Miss)

Basement: 5-7 (losses to above plus LSU & MSU)

Expected:  6-6

 

Is PSU expected to be all that next year? I would say swap them and MSU right now.

Regardless, beyond what you *think* our record is going to be, what is a fair demand for next year? As in, how bad does our record have to be to justify the staff being on the proverbial hot seat entering year 3?

Edited December 28, 2021 by AUwent

[aucanucktiger 1,812]

Auburn's 2022 season if...

TJ Finley is the starter: 8-4 (2022 will be HEAVILY run & play action oriented)

Dematrius Davis is the starter: 8-4

Holden Geriner is the starter: 7-5

A transfer QB beats out all players on the current roster: 9-3

No WRs are brought in through the portal: 8-4

No OL are brought in through the portal: 7-5

No defensive starters are brought in through the portal: 8-4

Hall, Wooden, and Owen Pappoe return: 9-3

Those three don't return: 8-4

CBH calls plays: 8-4

CBH doesn't call plays: 7-5

How can Auburn win 9+ games: bring in 2 stud O linemen and a primo transfer QB while Geriner ripens.

How can they lose 7+ games: injuries. If NOTHING changes we shouldn't lose more than 5.

Actual prediction of record: 8-4.

 

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[AUwent 3,784]

I'll just leave this here.

https://auburnwire.usatoday.com/2022/01/09/brett-mcmurphyauburn-football-excludes-auburn-from-his-top-50-teams-in-early-2022-rankings/

Edited January 10, 2022 by AUwent

[AU-24 3,124]

Good Lord; some depressing predictions here. I don’t blame y’all, but sure is a downer!

[cbo 8,112]

1 hour ago, AUwent said:

I'll just leave this here.

https://auburnwire.usatoday.com/2022/01/09/brett-mcmurphyauburn-football-excludes-auburn-from-his-top-50-teams-in-early-2022-rankings/

These have never been wrong! Let's shut it down. 

[Hank2020 3,232]

On 12/23/2021 at 4:06 PM, AUwent said:

Yeah, it's just not a good recipe for a successful coaching tenure when you're set up to do worse in the second year. Depressing when doth look at how Pittman, Kiffin and Leach all improved in their second years.

How is winning 8 or 9 doing worse. I’m lost again.

[AUwent 3,784]

15 minutes ago, Hank2020 said:

How is winning 8 or 9 doing worse. I’m lost again.

Harsin maybe be SEC CotY if we win 8-9.

But seeing three opponents in the projected top 5 is further proof of why I want SECN's proposal to happen. If we're going to have to play that gauntlet on a regular basis, then so should everyone else. Tired of having the toughest schedule every year.

Edited January 10, 2022 by AUwent

[Hank2020 3,232]

2 hours ago, AUwent said:

I'll just leave this here.

https://auburnwire.usatoday.com/2022/01/09/brett-mcmurphyauburn-football-excludes-auburn-from-his-top-50-teams-in-early-2022-rankings/

Auburn basketball was not ranked in top 20 pre-season either.