2022 record prediction scenarios

[AUght2win 6,919]

Thought this might be an interesting way to get people's predictions for next season. Even after ENSD, there are still a ton of uncertainties for Auburn to sort out before the 2022 season. So I'll lay out some different scenarios below. Feel free to put a W-L prediction or elaborate on what you think will happen in each case. 

Auburn's 2022 season if...

TJ Finley is the starter:

Dematrius Davis is the starter:

Holden Geriner is the starter:

A transfer QB beats out all players on the current roster:

No WRs are brought in through the portal:

No OL are brought in through the portal:

No defensive starters are brought in through the portal:

Hall, Wooden, and Owen Pappoe return:

Those three don't return: 

CBH calls plays:

CBH doesn't call plays:

How can Auburn win 9+ games:

How can they lose 7+ games:

Actual prediction of record:

[AUght2win 6,919]

Auburn's 2022 season if...

TJ Finley is the starter: 7-5. TJ is a solid, SEC quality QB but I'm not sold he can ever be a game changer.

Dematrius Davis is the starter: 8-4. I'll buy the hype. You don't shatter records in Texas' highest high school classification without being a bona-fide stud.

Holden Geriner is the starter: 6-6. Holden looks to be a sneaky good pickup. Like, maybe Harsin's best recruit yet and an Aaron Murray type of steady hand. But if he is the QB it's clear 2022 will be an investment year for the future.

A transfer QB beats out all players on the current roster: 8-4. There are SEC caliber starters on our current roster. If someone transfers in and wins the job, they'll have to be a student. But QB isn't our main issue.

No WRs are brought in through the portal: 6-6. In mid October I would have said 4-8. But Kobe and Javarrius have grown into solid players. Still. We need a couple more guys, particularly a deep threat and a big body.

No OL are brought in through the portal: 5-7. We just simply can't win without new OL.

No defensive starters are brought in through the portal: 7-5. I'm a believer in Derek Mason and the current roster. We'll lose big pieces like Zakoby, Roger, and Smoke. But I think we can reload. 

Hall, Wooden, and Owen Pappoe return: 8-4. While we can afford to lose them, keeping them would be huge. 

Those three don't return: 6-6. The 7-5 prediction is predicated on maybe one or two of these guys going to the NFL. If all three do, it's trouble. Tough to lose that many starters 

CBH calls plays: 8-4. There are certain times when the HC's possession of the offense or defense is beneficial. When just starting a program is one of those times. Considering CBH didn't like Bobo's work, he can get exactly what he wants from the offensive unit if he calls plays. 

CAD calls plays: 7-5. I think it'll be tough for a guy so young who's never been an OC, or coached at the college level, to call plays.

How can Auburn win 9+ games: Three or more transfer OL. A transfer receiver, LB, and CB. The tight end game becomes more sophisticated. Tank has a career year. The defensive line becomes dominant, as Hall, Wooden, and Leota continue to develop and Pegues becomes a force.

We have to come out of the gates hot. Our first five games are at home. We need all 5. If we can build momentum in those, we'll be set up to steal a few later in the year.

How can they lose 7+ games: We swing and miss in the portal. Our offense sputters from the first game on, and we lose to Penn State and LSU at home. Confidence dwindles and we collapse. 

Actual prediction of record: 8-4. I'm an optimist. The staff's ability last season to find great talent in the portal gives me hope they'll do the same again. The trouble is the pool is limited, and unlike every year with HS recruits, there aren't thousands and thousands of blue chips to choose from. 

As J Hoke put it, with Bo's departure, in a weird way I view this as the official start to the CBH era. The old dynamics of the team are gone. It's a fresh start. I think we lose to Alabama, UGA, Ole Miss and Penn State. The Penn State game is key though. A win could launch us into a very confident and dangerous mode. If we go into Athens 5-0, we could win more than 8.

[AUwent 3,784]

See below.

[aucat 69]

 no star QB, no established OL, WR,  loss of start CB, QB...  5-7 very likely, just my 2 cents

[creed 1,696]

I'll wait on more data.

[AuburnEagle79 2,171]

Too many scenarios to predict them all, but...

Team as is: 7-5

Team with influential transfers: 9-3

[aucom96 1,648]

Without significant additions from the portal, we pretty much got weaker across the roster. If that stays the same, we could be anywhere from a 7 to 9 loss team next season. 

If we can bring in some lineman and patch a few key positions, we could push our wins up quite a bit. Most of that x-factor revolves around what we can do on the line. 

[AUpreacherman22 3,905]

Same as others…

As is, we’re somewhere around 5-7 to 6-6 and that’s only because I like the defense, especially if Owen stays.   
If we are able to get a good QB, a WR1, and 2-3 good SEC ready OL we could potentially be a 9-3 team.   

Edited December 23, 2021 by AUpreacherman22

[CT Tiger 136]

Here's the 2022 schedule for convenience. 

[Mikey 16,781]

Depends entirely on the portal. Right now, it's hard to see a single area in which we'll be better than last year. We've lost a good bit of talent to graduation and the transfer portal, it will take some hard work and good luck just to get our talent level back to where we were. A year ago, I expected the 2020 season to be better than 2021. To date, little has happened to change that assessment. Maybe the new OC can somehow prevent the 2nd half offensive woes. If so, that would help.

Let's be optimistic and say a repeat of 6-6.

[JerryAU 1,714]

12 minutes ago, Mikey said:

Depends entirely on the portal. Right now, it's hard to see a single area in which we'll be better than last year. We've lost a good bit of talent to graduation and the transfer portal, it will take some hard work and good luck just to get our talent level back to where we were. A year ago, I expected the 2020 season to be better than 2021. To date, little has happened to change that assessment. Maybe the new OC can somehow prevent the 2nd half offensive woes. If so, that would help.

Let's be optimistic and say a repeat of 6-6.

I'm in the same 6-6 boat Mikey.  Simply because '21 season had experienced QB/oline/RB & an infusion of portal players and they finished 6-6.   We lost a lot of experience and until I see an enrichment of talent coming in for '22 I don't think they finish any better than another 6-6 season. 

 

[W.E.D 11,070]

3 minutes ago, JerryAU said:

I'm in the same 6-6 boat Mikey.  Simply because '21 season had experienced QB/oline/RB & an infusion of portal players and they finished 6-6.   We lost a lot of experience and until I see an enrichment of talent coming in for '22 I don't think they finish any better than another 6-6 season. 

 

Maybe we don't have experience but we have some players who are actually talented vs just old.

Could change a lot.

[SRBautigerfan 1,040]

As is, right now 5 - 7.  If we pick up an experienced QB and 2 - 3 experienced OL's and an experienced WR I can see 7 - 5.  I really wanted to see DD in action in the bowl game to see if we actually have a legit SEC starting QB on roster right now and see who sticks around an extra year before making a prediction but we'll see soon enough. 

[SumterAubie 3,033]

20 hours ago, AUght2win said:

Thought this might be an interesting way to get people's predictions for next season. Even after ENSD, there are still a ton of uncertainties for Auburn to sort out before the 2022 season. So I'll lay out some different scenarios below. Feel free to put a W-L prediction or elaborate on what you think will happen in each case. 

Auburn's 2022 season if...

TJ Finley is the starter:

Dematrius Davis is the starter:

Holden Geriner is the starter:

A transfer QB beats out all players on the current roster:

No WRs are brought in through the portal:

No OL are brought in through the portal:

No defensive starters are brought in through the portal:

Hall, Wooden, and Owen Pappoe return:

Those three don't return: 

CBH calls plays:

CBH doesn't call plays:

How can Auburn win 9+ games:

How can they lose 7+ games:

Actual prediction of record:

OP clearly has too much time on his hands

[AUwent 3,784]

3 hours ago, aucom96 said:

Without significant additions from the portal, we pretty much got weaker across the roster. If that stays the same, we could be anywhere from a 7 to 9 loss team next season. 

If we can bring in some lineman and patch a few key positions, we could push our wins up quite a bit. Most of that x-factor revolves around what we can do on the line. 

Question is how hot will the regime's seat be headed into year 3 if you're right?

I view getting to a bowl as an acceptable result provided we build on our recruiting momentum. Year 3 is when we should start expecting 9 wins (incl. bowl). With how quickly Pittman was able to get Arkansas from a perennial 2-4 win team to an 8 win team, there is no reason for that not to be a fair expectation.

Edited December 23, 2021 by AUwent

[Hank2020 3,232]

16 minutes ago, AUwent said:

Question is how hot will the regime's seat be headed into year 3 if you're right?

I view getting to a bowl as acceptable. Year 3 is when we should start expecting 9 wins (incl. bowl). With how quickly Pittman was able to get Arkansas from a perennial 2-4 win team to an 8 win team, there is no reason for that not to be a fair expectation.

Arkansas got there that quickly due to his OC/DC worked out terrific. See what happens if he loses one of them.

[steeleagle 2,945]

3 hours ago, AUpreacherman22 said:

Same as others…

As is, we’re somewhere around 5-7 to 6-6 and that’s only because I like the defense, especially if Owen stays.   
If we are able to get a good QB, a WR1, and 2-3 good SEC ready OL we could potentially be a 9-3 team.   

I'm not sure why all this D success relies on Owen. He was not the best LB out there. McClain was. I also recall him having injuries at times. So I'm not sure we can count on him for 12 games manning the LB corp.

I like Pappoe's speed ofc, but other than that he is not a major disruptor IMO.

I agree with the 5-7 to 7-5 range.

I don't see at all a 9-3 schedule with all the away games we got in the west and w/ GA still.

8-4 is max if we bring in a quality TR starter.

[AUght2win 6,919]

2 hours ago, SumterAubie said:

OP clearly has too much time on his hands

Well we appreciate socialites like you making the time to stop in. 

[AUght2win 6,919]

1 hour ago, steeleagle said:

I'm not sure why all this D success relies on Owen. He was not the best LB out there. McClain was. I also recall him having injuries at times. So I'm not sure we can count on him for 12 games manning the LB corp.

I like Pappoe's speed ofc, but other than that he is not a major disruptor IMO.

I agree with the 5-7 to 7-5 range.

I don't see at all a 9-3 schedule with all the away games we got in the west and w/ GA still.

8-4 is max if we bring in a quality TR starter.

Owen is an incredibly important piece. I think if he plays at South Carolina we win. Don't think he could have done much more than we already did against Alabama, but he was our third best player on D behind McCreary and McClain. 

[AUreo 758]

23 hours ago, AUght2win said:

Thought this might be an interesting way to get people's predictions for next season. Even after ENSD, there are still a ton of uncertainties for Auburn to sort out before the 2022 season. So I'll lay out some different scenarios below. Feel free to put a W-L prediction or elaborate on what you think will happen in each case. 

Auburn's 2022 season if...

TJ Finley is the starter:

Dematrius Davis is the starter:

Holden Geriner is the starter:

TJ Finley is the starter: 5-7

Dematrius Davis is the starter: 4-8

Holden Geriner is the starter: 4-8

A transfer QB beats out all players on the current roster: 6-6

Edited December 23, 2021 by AUreo

[80Tiger 904]

Wow. You guys are a depressing lot. Looks lit the overall consensus is 6-6. Ouch.

[AUwent 3,784]

2 hours ago, steeleagle said:

I don't see at all a 9-3 schedule with all the away games we got in the west and w/ GA still.

Can we all just agree that 2022 should be the last year the schedule excuse is going to fly? If we're still having this "I just hope we can make a bowl/be competitive" convo that we were having last year too, year 3 is do or die.

3 hours ago, Hank2020 said:

Arkansas got there that quickly due to his OC/DC worked out terrific. See what happens if he loses one of them.

And who's in charge of hiring them?

 

Edited December 23, 2021 by AUwent

[Hank2020 3,232]

2 minutes ago, AUwent said:

Can we all just agree that 2022 should be the last year the schedule excuse is going to fly?

And who's in charge of hiring them?

 

Definitely give him Kudos there, just not sure lightning will strike twice.

[AU9377 5,364]

We will need a game changer QB transfer in order to win more than 6 games.  If that happens, things will get ugly around Auburn.  Been there, done that, have the tshirts.

[AUFAN78 3,954]

Thought 5-7 this year, so I'll do it again for next. Also as I did this year I'll hope for much better. Simply a realist. WDE