My Thoughts from the Stadium (Mississippi State 2021)

[SaltyTiger 8,633]

9 minutes ago, Mikey said:

Why would there have been a better chance of being successful on a 2-point try later in the game? At a point when a miss equals an immediate loss.?

I had no problem with it. The analytics say go for 2. Doesn’t consider the emotion or momentum part though.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/when-to-go-for-2-for-real/

 

[Mikey 16,781]

18 minutes ago, gr82be said:

Sorry you don't understand the math Mikey but the odds of making the two point conversion were the same. 

The odds of the game being a one score game after that TD were better with the XP than the 2PC. It's a simple concept. 

I understand the math perfectly. We needed a minimum of 9 points to tie. Kicking the first one locks us into a do or die situation in the game's closing seconds. Attempting the needed 2-point try earlier gives us time to react. It wouldn't have been a one-score game had we kicked the XP. It would have been a two score game, TD plus 2-pointer.

Edited November 16, 2021 by Mikey

[1auburn1 1,131]

7 minutes ago, atl-tiger said:

So the gameplan is recover 2 onside kicks and have a backup qb make 2 scoring drives in 4 mins when we had 1 score the whole 2nd half? Or have our D make 2 stops, who gave up 40 unanswered, then still need 2 scores?

I'd much rather rely on a stop, scoring drive  and a 2 pt conversion. 

Yes, thank you.    You have almost ZERO chance of recovering 2 onside kicks.    And the way our D was playing, almost ZERO chance of making 2 stops.    It was a strategic blunder by Harsin to go for 2 at that point which is particularly concerning because he had extra time to make it after the last TD.    Oh and if you don't make the 2 pt conversion at the end, you still have an onside kick opportunity assuming there's time on the clock.   

[woodford 3,754]

This past Saturday was my first Auburn home game since 2015 I believe. I’ve been to Auburn for a handful games since but never gone in the stadium. 
 

It was a sleepy 11 am kick but everyone woke up after it was 28-3. I actually had to leave at halftime due to a prior engagement so I missed the good stuff lol

Pumped for the Iron Bowl. First time I’ll be in the stadium for the IB since 2011. 

[SaltyTiger 8,633]

1 hour ago, SaltyTiger said:

I had no problem with it. The analytics say go for 2. Doesn’t consider the emotion or momentum part though.

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/when-to-go-for-2-for-real/

 

What is so wrong with an opinion @tigers23? I went Saturday for the first time in couple of years. The feel throughout the stadium changed after the 6:10 mark second quarter. The way we lost that game is extremely troubling. Least of our concerns should be 2 point decisions. Understand that many fans and coaches don’t agree but analysis says it’s sound.

[tigers23 687]

The problem with the analytics chart is there is no time remaining element. 8 minutes to go, I agree with the call. Less than 4 minutes left, you have to get it within one score to have any legitimate chance.

 

[Mikey 16,781]

5 hours ago, tigers23 said:

The problem with the analytics chart is there is no time remaining element. 8 minutes to go, I agree with the call. Less than 4 minutes left, you have to get it within one score to have any legitimate chance.

 

All this assumes that a 2-point try after the second TD will be successful. There's no reason to think it would do any better than after the 1st TD. Wait until after the 2nd TD to go for two, fail and the game is over. Going for 2  and failing after the 1st TD leaves a chance, no matter how slim.

[SaltyTiger 8,633]

13 hours ago, tigers23 said:

The problem with the analytics chart is there is no time remaining element. 8 minutes to go, I agree with the call. Less than 4 minutes left, you have to get it within one score to have any legitimate chance.

 

There is a time remaining chart.

Passing judgment

Out of 1,897 post-touchdown decisions¹⁰ in the last two years (including the playoffs), coaches should have attempted to go for 2 approximately 690 times, of which they only did 107.¹¹ Overall, coaches made 607 “mistakes”

[AU_Canoe 240]

On 11/15/2021 at 11:09 AM, abw0004 said:

Good morning all,

I am writing to you from Hilton Head Island this morning, so a lot of driving for me since Saturday.  For those unfamiliar of why I wait to post until Monday, I typically wait so the emotions can settle down a bit (good or bad) and pragmatic thinking can prevail.  This weekend was not different, and beneficial with everything that has occurred.  Here we go:

Atmosphere:  I was a little confused on what to expect this game from an atmosphere perspective.  It was an SEC game so I assumed we would be loud, but it was also a morning game.  Unfortunately our fans were never really in it as far as noice was concerned.  Even during the inspiration video, it was almost radio silent.  I can't remember the last time this happened.

Weather:  The weather was perfect though so no complaints there.  The high was 59 degrees and a slight breeze.  Leaves were falling all around you as you walked into the stadium and not a cloud in the sky.  You just needed to be sure to wear sunscreen.  Don't be dumb like me in 2019 when I didn't wear sunscreen because "You can't get sunburn when it is this cold."  My client meetings were fun the following week that week.

Spirit:  The Mississippi State game on Saturday was Spirit's last flight before retirement.  She has been flying since 2002 and flew at my first game as a child.  I would not have missed this game for the world.  I had a special moment when she flew from her kennel under the flagpole, she took a turn and flew right above me in section three.  That was special for me to say goodbye to her, considering that was not supposed to be her flightpath.  I will remember that moment for as along as I live.

Veterans's Day:  As you might have guessed, Saturday was our military appreciation day.  I always love these as it is a great way to honor our service members.  This game we had three A10's do a flyover.  As a first, we had four service members lead our team out of the tunnel.  I always feel so honored to have these men and women on the field.  Our cheering even brought one veteran to tears, which always pulls at your heartstrings.

Our players:  Our guys really seemed together during this game.  More so than any other time this year really.  The very first play our defense asked us to get loud, and that was fun to see.  What you may not have seen on TV was when our defense was on the field, Bo Nix would find TJ Finley and throw the ball back and forth.  This is vastly different from other games where really both players were on the opposite sides.

Officiating:  I really hate to say anything and be that guy who complains about the refereeing, but man, how can I leave that out?  I don't understand how someone can be that bad at their job.  Even Tim Tebow said, officiating cost us a lot this year.  Think about some of these games we lost.  If we did not have those targeting calls alone, where would we be?  I just do not understand a lot of these calls, yet it is perfectly fine to fake injuries.

Bo Nix:  Bo Nix may very well be one of the most under appreciated players we have had in a very long time.  Bo broke his leg, and proceeded to throw for 108 more yards.  That shows me how much he loves this game, and how much he loves his team.  It took guts, but at the same time he was not selfish.  He didn't hide or lie about his injury.  He did what he could to help his team, until he couldn't do it any longer and TJ took the reins.  Bo finished with 377 yards, throwing to nine different receivers and 66% accuracy.  Also, the play he broke his leg?  It was a 44 yard completion where Bo stood in the pocket to throw it.

Coaching Decisions:  I am curious to know if Harsin knew if Bo broke his leg and still had him go out on the field.  I sure hope that is not the case, but I watched Bo go into the medical tent twice, so something was obviously wrong.  I knew that from in the stands.  I am not sure what to think of Harsin if he knew Bo was that injured and still played him.  TJ is more than capable, as well as DD.

Special Teams:  Posters keep complaining about Mike Bobo and Derek Mason, but why aren't we talking about Bert Watts, our special teams coach?  Every phase of the special teams game all season has been a nightmare.  I can't remember a time when we had so many blocked kicks and kickoff penalties.  Bert's call even got Anders injured.  As quickly as Harsin fired our wide receivers coach, why hasn't he done the same to Bert?  It just baffles me.

I understand this season at times has been frustrating, but this is also our first season with Harsin.  Give him the benefit of the doubt to develop the team he wants.  I do hope the recruiting picks up, but I am happy with the development of our current players.  The season is not lost, and I am excited to see how our team responds against South Carolina.  As always, .

I always enjoy reading your posts. Thank you!