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College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings announced by selection committee

BySAM HELLMAN 17 minutes ago

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Jerry Palm's Prediction For First CFP

 

 

 

The first College Football Playoff rankings from the selection committee are here, announced Tuesday night during a live television broadcast. Georgia, to no one’s surprise, checks in as the top team in the country, according to the committee.

And then the debate begins.

What does the selection committee value most? The eye test? Strength of schedule? An undefeated record? Well, the committee let its rankings do the talking on Tuesday night for teams like Michigan State, Cincinnati, Oklahoma and Ohio State.

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The time is now. Here are the committee’s first rankings, including thoughts from CBS expert Jerry Palm.

1. GEORGIA (8-0)

 

(Photo: Nathan Ray Seebeck, USA TODAY Sports)

There is absolutely zero debate about the No. 1 team in the country right now. The undefeated Bulldogs ran their dominant defense through team after team, already locking up a spot in the SEC Championship Game. There are no significant challenges, on paper, left until Georgia’s projected meeting with Alabama in the title game.

Palm’s take: The Bulldogs are the dominant team in college football so far this season. They have an elite defense that has yet to give up more than 13 points in a game.

2. ALABAMA (7-1)

 

(Photo: Stuart McNair, 247Sports)

Some in football circles say Alabama’s loss at Texas A&M was the best thing that could happen for Nick Saban. The Crimson Tide still control their destiny to the SEC Championship Game, and a loss to Jimbo Fisher may be the perfect motivation to run the table. Since the loss, Alabama has a 40-point win at Mississippi State and a 30-point win against Tennessee.

Palm’s take: The Crimson Tide are so good that many still expect them to win the CFP (after losing to Texas A&M).

3. MICHIGAN STATE (8-0)

 

(Photo: USA TODAY Sports)

The Spartans’ highest-quality victory of the season came Saturday in the comeback home win over rival Michigan. Michigan State ended Michigan’s hopes of an undefeated season, and Kenneth Walker solidified himself as a Heisman Trophy finalist with five touchdowns against the Wolverines.

Palm’s take:  Being undefeated against a good schedule with a win against a team highly ranked on this list means the Spartans should be second only to Georgia this week. 

4. OREGON (7-1)

(Photo: @ Craig Strobeck, 247Sports)

The Ducks have their resume-building win at Ohio State, but inconsistent Pac-12 play and the Stanford game lead to a questionable score from the selection committee. Will a Pac-12 championship change their minds?

Palm’s take: The league is a miserable 9-16 vs. FBS competition — that's not just Power Five but FBS. Only Conference USA and the MAC have worse records against that group. Throw in not one but two losses to FCS schools and you can see why the Ducks' strength of schedule may get worse every time they play. The difference in strength of schedule will keep Oregon behind the Buckeyes as long as they have the same record.

5. OHIO STATE (7-1)

 

(Photo: USA TODAY Sports)

There will be debates for weeks (or until one of them loses) about where Ohio State belongs compared to Oregon after a head-to-head win by the Ducks in Columbus. What’s more important, the head to head or the progress of each team since then? Well, the committee just made its stance known.

Palm’s take:  The Buckeyes passed a big test on Saturday with a win over Penn State at home. It is their first win over an opponent that is likely to remain ranked this season. Ohio State is the opposite of Georgia in that it has the best offense in the nation so far. Alabama is No. 2.  

6. CINCINNATI (8-0)

 

(Photo: Cincinnati Athletics, 247Sports)

This is the best November resume yet for a Group of Five program (or Power Six if you’re on Mike Aresco’s side). The Bearcats won at Notre Dame, and the debate about their strength of schedule will go all the way to the final rankings.

Palm’s take: They have the second-lowest lowest ranked strength of schedule of any team in this top 25, they have handled this schedule like a top-five team should.    

7. MICHIGAN (7-1)

 

(Photo: Rick Osentoski, USA TODAY Sports)

Sure, things are frustrating in Ann Arbor after a blown lead at Michigan State. And yes, Jim Harbaugh has some head on him after the loss to Mel Tucker. But don’t sleep on Michigan’s chances to make noise in November. 

Palm’s take: The Wolverines were on-brand for the Jim Harbaugh era in losing at Michigan State on Saturday. He is now 3-4 against the Spartans and 0-9 away from home against top 10 teams. Of course, those are not easy games to win.    

8. OKLAHOMA (9-0)

 

(Photo: Bryan Terry/The Oklahoman, USA TODAY Sports)

The first shocker in the polls came when the Sooners received the No. 8 overall ranking. Say what you want about a midseason quarterback change or the Kansas debacle or overall strength of schedule. The Sooners are undefeated and have one of the best-looking offenses entering November. A Big 12 championship likely still gets Lincoln Riley back to the College Football Playoff. The Sooners have at least two more games against CFP top-25 teams.

Palm’s take:  Their SOS is only slightly higher than that of the Bearcats, but Oklahoma does not have the quality win that Cincinnati does. The Sooners' best win came at Kansas State.   

9. WAKE FOREST (8-0)

 

(Photo: ACC Media)

If you like points, Wake Forest is the team for you. Undefeated Wake Forest has a star quarterback with Sam Hartman’s 2,475 yards, 22 touchdowns and three picks. They rank ninth nationally in total offense, but also an ugly 100th in total defense.

Palm’s take: The Demon Deacons are the last unbeaten team in the ACC and have one of the most prolific offenses in college football. They have yet to be held under 35 points in a game.

10. NOTRE DAME (7-1)

 

(Photo: Matt Cashore, 247Sports)

As is discussed every year (except 2020’s ACC season), the lack of a conference-title game severely hurts Notre Dame’s Playoff hopes after one loss. Notre Dame has one loss, the Cincinnati game, but a solid overall strength of schedule.

Palm’s take: The Fighting Irish have what measures out to be a good schedule because there are no horrible teams on it. All of their opponents except Cincinnati and Florida State (3-5) are either 4-4 or 5-3. I do not expect the committee to be fooled by the Irish's SOS ranking, but that Wisconsin win is starting to look better. 

11. OKLAHOMA STATE (7-1)

 

(Photo: David K Purdy, Getty)

 The Cowboys trail only Oklahoma in the Big 12 standings, and have the tiebreaker against Baylor, which is also 4-1 in the conference. A College Football Playoff berth would have to include back-to-back wins over Oklahoma, once on Nov. 27 in Bedlam and again in the Big 12 Championship Game.

Jerry Palm’s take: They control their own fate for the Big 12 Championship Game because they hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over Baylor.    

12. BAYLOR (7-1)

 

(Photo: Jerome Miron-USA TODAY Sports, USA TODAY Sports)

Baylor’s lone loss was at top-25 team Oklahoma State. The Bears are 3-1 against teams that have spent time in the AP Top 25 this season, including last week’s comeback against Texas.

Jerry Palm’s take: Baylor has two wins over teams in these rankings. The Bears defeated Iowa State and BYU at home earlier this season. They will also get Oklahoma at home in a few weeks, so there is a chance for advancement.   

13. AUBURN (6-2)

 

(Photo: Adam Sparks / Inside the Auburn Tigers, 247Sports)

The Tigers have arguably the best two-loss resume in the country. The first came at Penn State, back when the Nittany Lions were fully healthy. The second was at Georgia, and there’s no shame in that. Auburn looks to make it three-straight ranked wins Saturday at Texas A&M.

Jerry Palm’s take:  If they win out, which means beating Alabama, the Tigers will play for the SEC Championship.

14. TEXAS A&M (6-2)

 

(Photo: Getty)

Texas A&M has one of the best resume-building wins possible, a victory over No. 1 Alabama. It’s the first win by a former Nick Saban assistant against the big dog. But the Aggies also have two SEC losses and an upset scare against Colorado on the schedule.

Jerry Palm’s take:  Nobody knows if Haynes King, the starting quarterback who was injured in the game at Colorado, will be back this season, but Zach Calzada has filled in nicely. 

15. BYU (7-2)

 

(Photo: USA TODAY Sports)

The Cougars have no shot at a playoff bid, but their strong resume against the Pac-12 is quite the story overall. BYU also has the 66-49 shootout win over UVA.

Jerry Palm’s take:  Maybe they should just be declared the Pac-12 South champions. BYU has played two games against teams in these rankings. It lost at Baylor and beat Utah at home.   

 

16. Ole Miss (6-2)

17. Mississippi State (5-3)

18. Kentucky (6-2)

19. NC State (6-2)

20. Minnesota (6-2)

21. Wisconsin (5-3)

22. Iowa (6-2)

23. Fresno State (7-2)

24. San Diego State (7-1)

25. Pittsburgh (6-2)

[WFE12 9,192]

If things go our way we’re gonna need one of those top 10 teams to lose and OKL should’ve lost a few times already. They might finally trip up. I just don’t want this year to end up like 2017 again if we do run the table in the season.

Edited November 2, 2021 by WFE12

[JBiGGiE 2,488]

If that ain't favoritism, I don't know what is.

No way is Michigan State's lossless record which includes a top -10 win worse than Bama's which includes a loss to a then-unranked A&M. But of course they will always frame it as a loss to a "top-15 A&M"

And of course no love for Cincinnati despite beating Notre Dame. Yes, I also think ND is overrated, but clearly intellectual consistency isn't a feature amidst the committee.

[E'Town4Bama 121]

10 minutes ago, JBiGGiE said:

If that ain't favoritism, I don't know what is.

No way is Michigan State's lossless record which includes a top -10 win worse than Bama's which includes a loss to a then-unranked A&M. But of course they will always frame it as a loss to a "top-15 A&M"

And of course no love for Cincinnati despite beating Notre Dame. Yes, I also think ND is overrated, but clearly intellectual consistency isn't a feature amidst the committee.

If ATM wins out, it will be a good loss for Bama but I doubt they do. I think AU beats them this weekend. Cincy is well Cincy. They would lose to several SEC teams and another few top 15 teams not in the SEC. Bama should have been 4 but hey, you just want to be in the top 4.

[difball 313]

Every SEC West School except for LSU is in top 17

SEC West - welcome to the slaughter house

[aubaseball 2,714]

4 minutes ago, E'Town4Bama said:

If ATM wins out, it will be a good loss for Bama but I doubt they do. I think AU beats them this weekend. Cincy is well Cincy. They would lose to several SEC teams and another few top 15 teams not in the SEC. Bama should have been 4 but hey, you just want to be in the top 4.

I disagree.   At best, Alabama should be 6.  Cincy and MSU should be in top 4 and OSU 5.  It doesn’t matter if you say, if they were this or they were that, it should be based on what have you done this year.   

[CoffeeTiger 5,382]

Bama is overranked. Best win is against Ole Miss. committee wants Bama in the CFP so the #2 ranking ensures that even if Bama loses to UGA in the SECC, they’ll still get in with 2 losses (assuming AU doesn’t beat them). 

I don’t know about MIss St at 17. 

AUs rank is good. 

Kind of an odd ranking set overall IMO. 

Edited November 3, 2021 by CoffeeTiger

[TigerPAC 993]

Whole thing smells to me but no one asked me either

[Guest MustardSeed]

29 minutes ago, difball said:

Every SEC West School except for LSU is in top 17

SEC West - welcome to the slaughter house

And Arky, but point remains

[difball 313]

Not sure how this committee is supposed to work anymore - it comes down to most deserving or who would win/best team- and as much as I hate them if  a game were going down tomorrow on neutral field Bama would be favored over everyone except Georgia even with 2  losses.

[TigerPAC 993]

4 minutes ago, difball said:

Not sure how this committee is supposed to work anymore - it comes down to most deserving or who would win/best team- and as much as I hate them if  a game were going down tomorrow on neutral field Bama would be favored over everyone except Georgia even with 2  losses.

I see what you are saying but IF that is the case, why play the entire season? Just pick the top 4 “best” teams in August and call it a day

[difball 313]

12 minutes ago, TigerPAC said:

I see what you are saying but IF that is the case, why play the entire season? Just pick the top 4 “best” teams in August and call it a day

They kind of messed that up on Oklahoma - the committee seems to have used the eye test and punished them. And honestly I don't think I would pick Oklahoma to win over any of the teams in front of them on a neutral field - except maybe Michigan. Certainly they are not in the top4 they were slotted in in August.

[tgrogan21 6,198]

Having the playoff should mean that undefeated teams don't get the shaft like Auburn did in 2004. But just several years in and we can already see that Cincy, unless they get a lot of help, will be shafted if they go undefeated. It's BS and another reason why preseason ranking suck ass.

[JBiGGiE 2,488]

13 minutes ago, E'Town4Bama said:

If ATM wins out, it will be a good loss for Bama but I doubt they do. I think AU beats them this weekend. Cincy is well Cincy. They would lose to several SEC teams and another few top 15 teams not in the SEC. Bama should have been 4 but hey, you just want to be in the top 4.

My argument is the inconsistency of perspective. If Bama (hypothetically speaking) lost to team X who was 0-4 but goes on a tear to finish 8-4 and in the top 20-15, come play-off selection time then Bama's one loss was to top 15 Team X...

Whereas if that were to happen to Auburn or another perennially disrespected team, then they lost to a winless teamX and should be shamed, let alone in discussion for playoff contention.

But you're right in that it's ultimately a mute point. If Bama wins out, and wins the SEC, they'll be in. But the fact is that the media and selection committee use too much revisionist history to spin the narrative they want to tell...

[Win4AU 4,056]

I honestly don't understand why they don't use the BCS calculations with the playoffs.  I'm sure if you went back the top 4 was pretty solid in the BCS Era.  Auburn's only path to the playoffs is to win the SEC I think.  Bama is good but they aren't good good like they've been in years past.  Until someone proves otherwise I'm not sure there is a team that can stay within 10 pts of UGA.  Texas A&M is a good team.  It would be good to see Cincy make the playoffs just to appease some people and see how they do against the big boys in a post season game that matters.  I'm sure something will happen to flip this on its head in the next couple weeks.  There's always that one weekend of chaos and carnage.

[AU9377 5,368]

This is proof positive that the playoff has to be expanded ASAP.  Regardless of what anyone thinks of Cincinatti, they deserve a shot.  If you tell all group of 5 schools that regardless of how much the try and how good they play, they have no shot at reaching the playoff, you hurt the sport overall.

[DAG 34,119]

Cincy should absolutely be in the Top Four in my eyes. I am confused how Bama is #2. Oregon is in one of the weaker power 5 conferences and they loss to an unranked team in Stanford. They should not be over Cincy . This is why I am all in for playoffs expansion. 

[cbo 8,112]

A lot of the usual hand-wringing. So much will change before the playoffs. 

For AU fans, it comes down to this. Win out and we are in. Lose a 3rd game and we are out. Pretty cool position to be in this deep into the season. 

[NoALtiger 3,875]

I always love reading the reactions when the first one comes out. Proof this works exactly how they want it to. Without a true playoff (expanded), it is and will always be like this. 

[DAG 34,119]

10 minutes ago, cbo said:

A lot of the usual hand-wringing. So much will change before the playoffs. 

For AU fans, it comes down to this. Win out and we are in. Lose a 3rd game and we are out. Pretty cool position to be in this deep into the season. 

That is not exactly true. A big ten champion will get in. UGA will get in with an SEC loss, Oregon will get in if they win out. Now you have to ask, what IF UC wins out? OU wins out? There is still a 1 loss big ten team? It is not a clear thing that we will get in. We could for sure cause chaos which is what most of the nation wants.  

[cbo 8,112]

5 minutes ago, DAG said:

That is not exactly true. A big ten champion will get in. UGA will get in with an SEC loss, Oregon will get in if they win out. Now you have to ask, what IF UC wins out? OU wins out? There is still a 1 loss big ten team? It is not a clear thing that we will get in. We could for sure cause chaos which is what most of the nation wants.  

It's the same thing every year. I'd bet money enough teams will lose to get AU in the playoffs if they win out. 

[DAG 34,119]

Just now, cbo said:

It's the same thing every year. I'd bet money enough teams will lose to get AU in the playoffs if they win out. 

Yes, maybe but then that means we would need help. Simply winning out won’t do it. If we jump an undefeated Cincy and OU (as much as I despise them),

the playoff instantly loses credibility . We can even throw in a Wake Forest for kicks and giggles. 

[cbo 8,112]

6 minutes ago, DAG said:

Yes, maybe but then that means we would need help. Simply winning out won’t do it. If we jump an undefeated Cincy and OU (as much as I despise them),

the playoff instantly loses credibility . We can even throw in a Wake Forest for kicks and giggles. 

I’m with you now. Win out and we are in, in my opinion. Some other teams have to lose. It usually works out that way. But I am wrong all the time so who knows. 

[Randman5000 4,239]

Alababy losing to a two loss team is #2?? Cincinnati, okie and Ohio State can't be happy with that  💩smells like #2 

Edited November 3, 2021 by Randman5000

[e808 3,028]

6 hours ago, WFE12 said:

If things go our way we’re gonna need one of those top 10 teams to lose and OKL should’ve lost a few times already. They might finally trip up. I just don’t want this year to end up like 2017 again if we do run the table in the season.

If Auburn wins out they won’t need any help. They will have the best resume and be the first two loss team in just like 2017. Respectfully!!

Edited November 3, 2021 by e808