4th-down showdown

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Auburn Football

Auburn preparing for likely 4th-down showdown against Ole Miss

Updated: Oct. 26, 2021, 9:51 a.m. | Published: Oct. 26, 2021, 9:51 a.m.

Oct 16, 2021; Fayetteville, AR, USA; Chandler Wooten (31) celebrates between Auburn and Arkansas at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Todd Van Emst/AU AthleticsTodd Van Emst/AU Athletics

By Tom Green | tgreen@al.com

Don’t confuse Lane Kiffin’s aggressiveness for recklessness.

The Ole Miss coach’s analytics-driven approach to the game has drawn some criticism — as it did in the aftermath of the Rebels’ loss to Alabama earlier this season — but there’s method to the madness.

“When you dive into the analytics, it obviously teaches you to play different,” Kiffin said at SEC Media Days. “…I think some people used to do that, just gunslinger mentality of I’m just going to go for it no matter what. That is not that. That is all calculated.”

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Those calculations have produced a distinct brand of football for 10th-ranked Ole Miss — a style of play that will present 18th-ranked Auburn with its own set of challenges when the two teams square off Saturday at 6 p.m. in Jordan-Hare Stadium.

The Rebels (5-2, 3-1 SEC) head to the Plains with the most aggressive fourth-down offense in the country this season. They lead the nation in fourth-down attempts (30) as well as fourth-down conversions (23), successfully converting 76.7 percent of the time — a rate that is ninth nationally but only behind Air Force (20-of-25) among teams who go for it at a high volume.

Ole Miss this season has gone for it on fourth down at least three times in each of its seven games this season. In three of those contests — against Louisville (3-for-3), Tulane (5-for-5) and last week against LSU (3-for-3) — Kiffin’s team was perfect on its fourth-down attempts. The lone game in which the fourth-down tactics backfired for the Rebels came against the Tide, when Ole Miss converted each of its first two attempts early in the game but was thwarted on its next three.

Afterward, Kiffin defended the decision to go for it in those situations, noting that Ole Miss went for it when the analytics called for it and because he wanted to show confidence in his offense. As he said afterward: Scared money doesn’t make money.

That mantra and approach has generally paid off for Ole Miss under Kiffin, who has bucked the traditionally conservative way of coaching and put his trust in analytics and spreadsheets to guide some of his decision-making on gamedays. It’s something, he said, a lot of coaches have struggled with because it goes against what has been ingrained in so many of them throughout the years — but it has been beneficial to his programs at Ole Miss and, prior to that, at FAU.

FAU led the nation in fourth-down attempts (44) in 2018 under Kiffin, converting 24 of them. His first season in Oxford, Miss., last fall saw the Rebels go for it on fourth down 33 times (converting 22 of them), trailing only Army and South Alabama in fourth-down attempts.

This year Ole Miss is again at the forefront in that category. Quarterback Matt Corral has converted 9-of-11 fourth-down attempts through the air, as well as 5-of-7 on the ground. Ole Miss, as a team, has converted 14-of-19 fourth-down attempts on the ground.

The thinking can be boiled down to basic math: Seven is greater than three; touchdowns are substantially more valuable than field goals, and those should be the goal.

“That’s pretty basic, but that is a big part about analytics that, for whatever reason for years as coaches, like that didn’t hit us,” Kiffin said. “Because I think it was just the feeling of, oh, I kick a field goal, or I attempt—it’s not even that I’m going to make it. I’m just going to attempt a field goal. It’s like as a coach, I did everything I’m supposed to do. We got the ball close enough… It is hard to follow at times. I’d like to think that we follow it really well, which is why we end up being so aggressive.”

That aggressiveness has altered how Kiffin and Ole Miss offensive coordinator Jeff Lebby not only approach fourth downs but their third-down play-calling as well. When you know you’re likely going to go for it on fourth-and-5 or less, it opens up more options on third-and-long than the traditional school of thought.

“They’re aggressive in their third-down and fourth-down situations, so they’re going to get close, and close for them is probably a little bit more then what most people would do in a fourth-down situation,” Auburn coach Bryan Harsin said.

That will be the challenge for Auburn and defensive coordinator Derek Mason, who have had an extra week to gameplan and prepare for Ole Miss’ distinct way of playing. The Tigers have been one of the nation’s best defenses on fourth downs this season, getting stops on 10 of their opponents’ 13 fourth-down attempts. In allowing teams to convert just 23.08 percent of the time, Auburn ranks fourth nationally and first in the SEC in fourth-down defense. The Tigers have allowed just one fourth-down conversion over the last six games.

It all sets the stage for what should be an intriguing game of chess between the Rebels’ offense and the Tigers’ defense Saturday night on the Plains.

“They’ve been very good at it,” Harsin said. “They’ve gone for it quite a bit, so you’ve got to be ready for that. And they’ve been successful with it, so they’re executing. A big part of that is their style of offense and their quarterback and his play.”