Fourth-down chess match

[aubiefifty 18,236]

Fourth-down chess match on tap for Auburn against Ole Miss

ByNathan King

4-5 minutes

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Alabama Closing Gap On Cincinnati In CFB Top 130 Rankings

 

AUBURN, Alabama — Some coaching tidbits Lane Kiffin picked up on in Tuscaloosa are now, seven years later, giving SEC defensive coordinators headaches.

“We had started to see these analytics — the company and the details about them — in the time at Alabama,” Kiffin said this month during the weekly SEC coaches teleconference. “They were not, as you can imagine, really used there. And it doesn’t matter — some people like them, some people don’t.”

No. 10 Ole Miss (6-1, 3-1 SEC) leads college football in fourth-down attempts this season with 30; that’s good for an average of 4.3 per game. Auburn’s defense, fresh off a bye week, will be tasked with defending at least a few of them in Jordan-Hare Stadium this Saturday.

Why the aggressiveness? Kiffin said, since learning about the impact analytics can have on an offense during his time at Alabama, that the numbers his staffs have produced about the benefits of attempting a fourth-and-manageable versus kicking a long field goal are usually in the offense’s favor.

“If you study the analytics on the field-goal attempts in the Alabama game (against Texas A&M), the analytics would tell you 100% to go the other way,” Kiffin said. “But everybody’s different. We’re way over on the other end of it, which I would say is new school versus old school in terms of believing in them — because they are factual.”

As a result, Kiffin’s offense this season has gone for it on fourth down in close games, in the first half, on their own side of the field multiple times. And the Rebels tend to be successful; their 76.67% conversion rate is the second-best in the country among offenses with at least 25 fourth-down attempts.

So Derek Mason’s Auburn defense was glad to have the bye week to start altering its mindset on downs and distances to more often expect four-down territory. The Tigers won’t always be seeing the punting unit after a third-down stop.

But No. 18 Auburn (5-2, 2-1 SEC) was already stellar in that department. On 13 tries, the Tigers have allowed only three fourth-down conversions all season. Their stop rate of 76.9% is the best in the SEC and No. 4 in college football.

As the saying goes, something’s got to give Saturday.

“Close for them is probably a little bit more than what most people would do in a fourth-down situation,” Bryan Harsin said Monday during his weekly press conference.” “But they’ve been very good at it. They’ve gone for it quite a bit so you’ve got to be ready for that. And they’ve been successful with it, so they’re executing. A big part of that is their style of offense and their quarterback and his play.”

As Harsin alluded to, a big component of Ole Miss’ success on fourth downs is the dual-threat ability of Matt Corral, who’s completing 67.6% of his passes on the season, with 15 touchdowns to just one interception. Corral also has 474 rushing yards on the year, and his nine touchdowns on the ground are tied for the second-most in the SEC among all players. His 24 total scores are the most in the conference.

“Frontrunner for the Heisman,” Harsin said of Corral. “... Offensively, I’ve just been impressed with everything they’ve done.”

Auburn is coming off a performance before the bye week at Arkansas in which it stuffed two fourth-and-short attempts by the Razorbacks, and forced an incompletion on fourth-and-long to seal the win.

Kickoff inside Jordan-Hare Stadium is set for 6 p.m. CST on ESPN.

6COMMENTS

[gr82b4au 5,576]

So basically Ole Miss is going to go for it on fourth down a lot unless it is over 5 yards. 

[WDE_OxPx_2010 5,473]

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Edited October 26, 2021 by WDE_OxPx_2010

[80Tiger 907]

So this article is making the assumption that we stop them on third down?

[AUApostle 7,761]

It's a good thing we're really awesome at creating turnovers.

[gr82b4au 5,576]

You guys are sure making me feel better about our chances on Saturday. Ha ha Ha