Auburns bowl game projections

[aubiefifty 18,236]

At a break in the action, breaking down Auburn football's bowl game projections

Bennett Durando

4-5 minutes

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AUBURN — As Auburn takes a breather this week, bowl game projections are beginning to pop up around the college football corner of the internet.

In coach Bryan Harsin's first year, Auburn (5-2, 2-1 SEC) entered its off week tied for second place in an SEC West with very little margin between the top and bottom. The seven-team division is beating itself up. Case in point: Auburn's latest victim, Arkansas, is in last place three weeks after being ranked No. 8 in the country.

While Auburn's final five games can change a lot in those cluttered league standings, the off week is a good time to break down the Tigers' bowl possibilities. They're one win away from being eligible.

The SEC has eight bowl affiliations, and the College Football Playoff will have a trickle-down effect on teams' placement. As of now, Georgia is on track to be a CFP lock, while Alabama needs to win out for the SEC to have a second team. 

If Alabama does make the playoff, the Sugar Bowl opens up for Kentucky or any team that overtakes the Wildcats as the SEC's third-best. The Citrus Bowl is next in line to choose the best remaining team. After that, the league assigns six teams to: Outback (vs. Big Ten or ACC), Gator (ACC), Liberty (Big 12), Music City (Big Ten), Texas (Big 12) and Duke's Mayo (ACC). A second tier consists of the Gasparilla and Birmingham.

Other New Year's Six bowls can theoretically select a worthy team for an at-large bid as well.

Here are current predictions from bowl prognosticators.

CBS's Jerry Palm: Auburn vs. Baylor, Texas Bowl.

Action Network's Brett McMurphy: Auburn vs. Wake Forest, Gator Bowl.

USA TODAY's Erick Smith: Auburn vs. Clemson, Gator Bowl.

ESPN's Kyle Bonagura: Auburn vs. Notre Dame, Gator Bowl.

ESPN's Mark Schlabach: Auburn vs. Minnesota, Music City Bowl.

Athlon Sports' Steven Lassan: Auburn vs. Clemson, Gator Bowl.

Saturday Down South's Jim Tomlin: Auburn vs. Michigan State, Outback Bowl.

The Gator Bowl (10 a.m. CT Dec. 31 in Jacksonville, Florida, televised on ESPN) is the most popular prediction after Auburn's win at Arkansas. But it's worth noting that the Tigers could supplant their next opponent, No. 12 Ole Miss, for a potentially higher placement with a home win on Halloween weekend. The Rebels (5-1, 2-1) are commonly projected to be the Citrus Bowl's selection.

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Is it possible for Auburn to climb all the way to a New Year's Six bowl? That would be a lofty achievement for Harsin in his first year, but beating Arkansas keeps the ceiling high for now. For Auburn to reach that level, it would likely have to run the table until the Iron Bowl — finishing 9-3 in a hard schedule with losses to Georgia, Alabama and Penn State would probably be enough. Upsetting Alabama would help, too, of course. Whatever the route, Auburn would need to finish 4-1 and reach nine wins.

According to ESPN's SP+ computer ranking, Auburn is No. 19 after the Arkansas game. The team's updated FPI predicted win total on ESPN is 7.8.

Where would 8-4 (5-3 SEC) land the Tigers? Possible Citrus Bowl placement would again be somewhat dependent on the domino effect. Also of note: Bowl games typically prefer to avoid the same teams over and over (especially twice in a row). Auburn was in the Citrus Bowl last season, the Outback Bowl the year before that and the Music City Bowl in 2018. Auburn hasn't played in the Gator Bowl since 1974.

The what-if hypotheticals are fun, but the biggest theme of the 2021 college football season has been the unpredictability of it all — especially in the SEC. With Auburn teetering alongside its next two opponents (Ole Miss and Texas A&M), a clearer picture will begin to emerge after those games.

Until then, the Tigers will watch their SEC counterparts from the couch this Saturday.

[aubiefifty 18,236]

this article was not on tigerland yesterday morning when i do my article stuff or it would have already been posted. sorry guys

[aucanucktiger 1,890]

A win vs ole miss changes everything IMO, so long as ole miss & arky don't then pull a Penn State.