Upon Further Review - Georgia Game

[StatTiger 3,188]

Upon Further Review – Georgia

• During the last three games, Tank Bigsby has 115 yards on 37 attempts (3.11 YPC), Jarquez Hunter has 145 yards on 21 carries (6.90 YPC). Jarquez needs to have more touches during the second-half of the regular season and certainly more than Shaun Shivers.
   
• During the first five games, the Auburn defense surrendered seven plays of at least 30 yards. Georgia totaled four such plays, a significant difference in the outcome of the game. Auburn is now 11-13 since 2006, when the opposition has at least four plays of at least 30 yards during a game.
   
• Of Auburn’s 14 plays of at least 30 yards, only three have occurred during the first quarter. Slow starts on offense as of late has set the tone for the games.
   
• 44.3 percent of Georgia’s 70 offensive snaps netted at least 5-yards, a season-low for the Auburn defense. Fifteen of those 31 plays came during the Bulldog’s final three possessions. At this point of the game, the Auburn defense was not at the same emotional level to start the game.
   
• After holding Georgia to 179 yards during the first half, the Bulldogs tallied 253 yards during the second half.
   
• 48.4 percent of Auburn’s first-down snaps this season have been held to 3-yards or less. During the last four games, it is 58.1 percent. Auburn’s continuous struggles on first down have forced the offense to play uphill, reducing their ability to gain yardage and score points. Auburn is currently averaging only 3.9 yards per rush on first down during their last four games.
   
• During Auburn’s last 45 possessions, only ONE has begun on the opponent’s side of the field. With Auburn scoring a touchdown 30 percent of the time, the lack of short fields is compounding the Tigers’ scoring potential from their side of the field. It must be a "team" concept for the 2021 Auburn Tigers to be successful in the win column.
   
• Bo Nix has completed only 52 percent of his first-down passes for 4.8 yards per attempt during the last five games.
   
• Sixty-two percent of Georgia’s total yardage came during their final five possessions of the game. The Bulldogs averaged 23.6 yards per possession during their first seven possessions and 53.4 yards during their last five possessions.
   
• Through six games, 69.8 percent of Bo Nix’s pass attempts are within 10-yards of the line of scrimmage. Of his 132 attempts in this target area, Auburn averages only 4.6 yards per attempt. Yardage gained after the catch has been minimal. T.J. Finley has thrown 53.1 percent of the time within 10 yards of the LOS, for 5.7 yards per attempt.
   
• Bo Nix finished the game with 21 completions from 38 attempts. Three of the in-completions were “throw-aways,” and his receivers dropped eight passes. Of the dropped passes, three would have extended drives. Take away the drops, and Nix could have been 29 of 38 for about 270 yards and two touchdowns. It was not the greatest pass, but John Shenker should have caught the red zone touchdown pass. Nix over-threw Demetris Robertson on another red zone touchdown opportunity, and the officials robbed Auburn after Ze-Vian Capers was mugged on another red zone touchdown opportunity. Nix finished with a pass rating of 97.9 but could have easily been 153.4.
   
• There has been plenty of discussion about whether or not Tank Bigsby is injured. He might be banged up, but his issues running the football has more to do with offensive line play than his health. The majority of his rush attempts are between the tackles where Auburn is not establishing a consistent push. Bigsby has been held to 3-yards or less on 50 percent of his attempts, and Jarquez Hunter has been held to 3-yards or less, 47.6 percent. How healthy is Hunter?
   
• Based on my statistical report card, the Auburn offense is currently at 55.2 percent at midseason, 42.7 percent on defense, and 75.0 percent on special teams.
   
• After holding Georgia to 36 yards rushing on 18 attempts during the first half, Auburn allowed 165 yards on 31 attempts during the final two quarters. The bulk of that occurred after Georgia was up 27-10.
   
• Auburn’s defensive front-7 accounted for 49.3 percent of the tackles against the Bulldogs, a season-low for the defense. Through six games, the front-7 has been involved in 65.2 percent of the tackles.
   
• Auburn came into the Georgia game, converting on 50 percent of their third-down situations. Georgia held Auburn to 28 percent, a season-low for the offense. The level of opposition makes a difference.
   
• 58.3 percent of Georgia’s total yardage came on first down, compared to Auburn’s 37.1 percent. During the last five games against the Georgia Bulldogs, Auburn has averaged 4.8 yards per play on first down, compared to Georgia’s 6.9 yards. The Bulldogs have simply been better upfront.
   
• During the last three games, Auburn has thrown the football 134 times to 93 rush attempts. Six of those rushes were sacks, so it is more like 140 pass attempts to 87 run plays. Throwing the football 61.6 percent of the time is NOT a winning formula for an Auburn offense. Auburn needs to return to its offensive identity during the second half of the regular season. Four of their last six opponents are currently in the bottom-half of run defense in the conference.
   
• Auburn has scored only seven offensive touchdowns during three Power-5 games, and none of them were over 30 yards. During the first three games, 5 of their 14 touchdowns were over 30-yards. The lack of explosive plays continues to be a major issue for the Auburn offense. Auburn has scored 80 offensive touchdowns in conference play from 2018-2021, but only 13 have been of 30-yards or more. The personnel responsible for those 13 explosive touchdown plays are no longer on the Auburn roster.
   
• Auburn is currently No. 12 in the SEC with a pass rating of 135.7 on first down. Auburn’s next two opponents are Arkansas and Ole Miss, who are currently No. 1 and No. 2 in the conference.
   
• Eleven times now from 2019-2021, Auburn has gone “three and out” at least 33 percent of the time during a game. Auburn is 4-7 during those games. Auburn has lost the third-down battle 25 times from 2016-2021, compiling a 7-18 record (.280).
   
• Yesterday marked the 55th time the opposition has compiled a pass rating of at least 150.0 from 2000-2021. Auburn lost 76.4 percent of those games.
   
• Georgia gained 267 yards on 39 snaps (6.85 YPP) for 20 points during each team's final five possessions. Auburn totaled 158 yards on 27 snaps (5.85 YPP) for seven points.
   
• Auburn is currently No. 61 nationally in red zone touchdown percentage, and Arkansas is No. 63.
   
• Since 2000, Auburn is now 2-30 during games; the Tigers accounted for less than 30 percent of the combined rushing totals. Auburn accounted for 18.6 percent of the game’s rushing totals against the Bulldogs. During the seven meetings against Kirby Smart’s Georgia Bulldogs, Auburn has accounted for only 37.2 percent of the rushing totals.

As poorly as Auburn appeared on offense against Georgia, it is crucial to consider how good the Bulldog defense has been this season. They have allowed only two offensive touchdowns through six games. Arkansas, Auburn’s next opponent, has averaged 519 yards per game on offense and 279 yards rushing outside the Georgia game. The Razorbacks were held to 162 yards in total offense and 75 rushing against Georgia. Auburn gained 318 yards and should have scored at least 21 points. Arkansas is currently 8th in the conference in total defense (337.5 YPG) and 9th in scoring defense (24.5 PPG). The Razorbacks are 11th against the run, allowing 181.5 yards per game. Though Auburn has issues on offense, the Razorbacks will not field the same level of defense the Tigers faced Saturday. It will take an offense with a highly efficient pass offense to pressure the 2021 Georgia defense. The key will be for the Auburn players to move forward, erasing the Georgia game from their minds and for the offensive staff to find the solutions needed to return to a more physical offense.

War Eagle!

[aubaseball 2,714]

56 minutes ago, StatTiger said:

Upon Further Review – Georgia


· During the last three games, Tank Bigsby has 115 yards on 37 attempts (3.11 YPC), Jarquez Hunter has 145 yards on 21 carries (6.90 YPC). Jarquez needs to have more touches during the second-half of the regular season and certainly more than Shaun Shivers.

· During the first five games, the Auburn defense surrendered seven plays of at least 30 yards. Georgia totaled four such plays, a significant difference in the outcome of the game. Auburn is now 11-13 since 2006, when the opposition has at least four plays of at least 30 yards during a game.

· Of Auburn’s 14 plays of at least 30 yards, only three have occurred during the first quarter. Slow starts on offense as of late has set the tone for the games.

· 44.3 percent of Georgia’s 70 offensive snaps netted at least 5-yards, a season-low for the Auburn defense. Fifteen of those 31 plays came during the Bulldog’s final three possessions. At this point of the game, the Auburn defense was not at the same emotional level to start the game.

· After holding Georgia to 179 yards during the first half, the Bulldogs tallied 253 yards during the second half.

· 48.4 percent of Auburn’s first-down snaps this season have been held to 3-yards or less. During the last four games, it is 58.1 percent. Auburn’s continuous struggles on first down have forced the offense to play uphill, reducing their ability to gain yardage and score points. Auburn is currently averaging only 3.9 yards per rush on first down during their last four games.

· During Auburn’s last 45 possessions, only ONE has begun on the opponent’s side of the field. With Auburn scoring a touchdown 30 percent of the time, the lack of short fields is compounding the Tigers’ scoring potential from their side of the field. It must be a "team" concept for the 2021 Auburn Tigers to be successful in the win column.

· Bo Nix has completed only 52 percent of his first-down passes for 4.8 yards per attempt during the last five games.

· Sixty-two percent of Georgia’s total yardage came during their final five possessions of the game. The Bulldogs averaged 23.6 yards per possession during their first seven possessions and 53.4 yards during their last five possessions.

· Through six games, 69.8 percent of Bo Nix’s pass attempts are within 10-yards of the line of scrimmage. Of his 132 attempts in this target area, Auburn averages only 4.6 yards per attempt. Yardage gained after the catch has been minimal. T.J. Finley has thrown 53.1 percent of the time within 10 yards of the LOS, for 5.7 yards per attempt.

· Bo Nix finished the game with 21 completions from 38 attempts. Three of the in-completions were “throw-aways,” and his receivers dropped eight passes. Of the dropped passes, three would have extended drives. Take away the drops, and Nix could have been 29 of 38 for about 270 yards and two touchdowns. It was not the greatest pass, but John Shenker should have caught the red zone touchdown pass. Bo Nix over-threw Demetris Robertson on another red zone touchdown opportunity, and the officials robbed Auburn after Ze-Vian Capers was mugged on another red zone touchdown opportunity. Nix finished with a pass rating of 97.9 but could have easily been 153.4.

· There has been plenty of discussion about whether or not Tank Bigsby is injured. He might be banged up, but his issues running the football has more to do with offensive line play than his health. The majority of his rush attempts are between the tackles where Auburn is not establishing a consistent push. Bigsby has been held to 3-yards or less on 50 percent of his attempts, and Jarquez Hunter has been held to 3-yards or less, 47.6 percent. How healthy is Hunter?

· Based on my statistical report card, the Auburn offense is currently at 55.2 percent at midseason, 42.7 percent on defense, and 75.0 percent on special teams.

· After holding Georgia to 36 yards rushing on 18 attempts during the first half, Auburn allowed 165 yards on 31 attempts during the final two quarters. The bulk of that occurred after Georgia was up 27-10.

· Auburn’s defensive front-7 accounted for 49.3 percent of the tackles against the Bulldogs, a season-low for the defense. Through six games, the front-7 has been involved in 65.2 percent of the tackles.

· Auburn came into the Georgia game, converting on 50 percent of their third-down situations. Georgia held Auburn to 28 percent, a season-low for the offense. The level of opposition makes a difference.

· 58.3 percent of Georgia’s total yardage came on first down, compared to Auburn’s 37.1 percent. During the last five games against the Georgia Bulldogs, Auburn has averaged 4.8 yards per play on first down, compared to Georgia’s 6.9 yards. The Bulldogs have simply been better upfront.

· During the last three games, Auburn has thrown the football 134 times to 93 rush attempts. Six of those rushes were sacks, so it is more like 140 pass attempts to 87 run plays. Throwing the football 61.6 percent of the time is NOT a winning formula for an Auburn offense. Auburn needs to return to its offensive identity during the second half of the regular season. Four of their last six opponents are currently in the bottom-half of run defense in the conference.

· Auburn has scored only seven offensive touchdowns during three Power-5 games, and none of them were over 30 yards. During the first three games, 5 of their 14 touchdowns were over 30-yards. The lack of explosive plays continues to be a major issue for the Auburn offense. Auburn has scored 80 offensive touchdowns in conference play from 2018-2021, but only 13 have been of 30-yards or more. The personnel responsible for those 13 explosive touchdown plays are no longer on the Auburn roster.

· Auburn is currently No. 12 in the SEC with a pass rating of 135.7 on first down. Auburn’s next two opponents are Arkansas and Ole Miss, who are currently No. 1 and No. 2 in the conference.

· Eleven times now from 2019-2021, Auburn has gone “three and out” at least 33 percent of the time during a game. Auburn is 4-7 during those games. Auburn has lost the third-down battle 25 times from 2016-2021, compiling a 7-18 record (.280).

· Yesterday marked the 55th time the opposition has compiled a pass rating of at least 150.0 from 2000-2021. Auburn lost 76.4 percent of those games.

· Georgia gained 267 yards on 39 snaps (6.85 YPP) for 20 points during each team's final five possessions. Auburn totaled 158 yards on 27 snaps (5.85 YPP) for seven points.

· Auburn is currently No. 61 nationally in red zone touchdown percentage, and Arkansas is No. 63.

· Since 2000, Auburn is now 2-30 during games; the Tigers accounted for less than 30 percent of the combined rushing totals. Auburn accounted for 18.6 percent of the game’s rushing totals against the Bulldogs. During the seven meetings against Kirby Smart’s Georgia Bulldogs, Auburn has accounted for only 37.2 percent of the rushing totals.


As poorly as Auburn appeared on offense against Georgia, it is crucial to consider how good the Bulldog defense has been this season. They have allowed only two offensive touchdowns through six games. Arkansas, Auburn’s next opponent, has averaged 519 yards per game on offense and 279 yards rushing outside the Georgia game. The Razorbacks were held to 162 yards in total offense and 75 rushing against Georgia. Auburn gained 318 yards and should have scored at least 21 points. Arkansas is currently 8th in the conference in total defense (337.5 YPG) and 9th in scoring defense (24.5 PPG). The Razorbacks are 11th against the run, allowing 181.5 yards per game. Though Auburn has issues on offense, the Razorbacks will not field the same level of defense the Tigers faced Saturday. It will take an offense with a highly efficient pass offense to pressure the 2021 Georgia defense. The key will be for the Auburn players to move forward, erasing the Georgia game from their minds and for the offensive staff to find the solutions needed to return to a more physical offense.


War Eagle!

From what I have watched this season, UGA is the best team in the country, right now.   Auburn held their own in the first half and with a few plays here or there, they could have been in the lead at halftime.    Auburn is a team this year  that can’t afford drops, fumbles and untimely penalties.   Auburn doesn’t have the players to make up for mistakes like what happened yesterday.  

[clwn 336]

We played a lot better than what the score shows. If it wasn't for 2 could have been TDs (first drive and the over throw across the field in the end zone) game would have been a lot closer and close games at home I like our chances. Plus the no PI call ugh. I'm proud of the team regardless, they fought hard against a much more complete team and possible champs. Damn I just hate losing to UGA.

[AUGoo 2,671]

Thrilled to see Stat is back!!

[lala 327]

5 hours ago, StatTiger said:

Stat, some of this is def on CBH.   Not sure if it is him trying to set a tone within the program,  but it seems he has gone for it many times where he could punt and pen the opp deep.   
 

thanks for posting, great read!

Edited October 10, 2021 by lala

[passthebiscuits 6,889]

I think we lose badly to Arky. We just don’t have the horses to win against good teams. (LSU is not a good team.) 

[japantiger 4,068]

Pass less, run more...and just catch the damn ball.  At least we started well and came out ready to play.  Gotta get em ready to beat a one dimensional Hog team.

[passthebiscuits 6,889]

Like Aaron Burr says:

“Pass less…Run More. Let them know what Hunter’s legs are for!” 

 

Edited October 11, 2021 by passthebiscuits

[SumterAubie 3,033]

11 minutes ago, passthebiscuits said:

Like Aaron Burr says:

“Pass less…Run More. Let them know what Hunter’s legs are for!” 

 

Did Burr say this before or after he shot a hole through Alex?

[SaltyTiger 8,119]

22 minutes ago, japantiger said:

just catch the damn ball. 

Unbelievable 

[NoALtiger 3,875]

8 drops is unacceptable, that’s just a killer against most anyone in the league, much less an elite D like UGA. Good stuff as usual Stat, thank ya sir. 

[RunInRed 16,787]

Bo did some stupid things early that could have been disastrous but luckily were not.

There's many reasons we lost Saturday, but as @StatTiger clearly points out above, it was not because of #10.

And for those who think we would have won the game had Big Uno played, I've got some ocean front property ...

[AUwent 3,784]

2 hours ago, passthebiscuits said:

I think we lose badly to Arky. We just don’t have the horses to win against good teams. (LSU is not a good team.) 

Just beat MSU and USCe...

[WFE12 9,192]

Ladd freaking McConkey smh..

[milehighfan 1,240]

3 hours ago, passthebiscuits said:

I think we lose badly to Arky. We just don’t have the horses to win against good teams. (LSU is not a good team.) 

I've said this before and I will say it again, we may not win another game this year. I certainly hope I am wrong.

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,841]

8 hours ago, StatTiger said:

During Auburn’s last 45 possessions, only ONE has begun on the opponent’s side of the field. With Auburn scoring a touchdown 30 percent of the time, the lack of short fields is compounding the Tigers’ scoring potential from their side of the field. It must be a "team" concept for the 2021 Auburn Tigers to be successful in the win column.

This is something that I feel doesn’t get talked about enough. Half of this can probably be attributed to the bend don’t break ideology, but also…we literally get nothing out of the punt return game it feels like. I know seemingly every SEC team has a great punter nowadays, but we NEVER flip field, and it seems like we go for every block. 
 

It’s like the STC version of calling four verts every play. Try a change up 

[tbone4jc 2,250]

It is a team loss. Everyone e had a part in the loss and Bo was a contributor.  The oline could be better at run blocking. The defense could be better at stopping the other teams offense. The WRs could help out by catching catchable balls. The officials could call the game unbiased.  That's how it goes. Once we get our lines right we will be good. I like our coaching staff. I love our players and appreciate the effort . Sometimes it just ain't good enough

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,841]

3 hours ago, passthebiscuits said:

I think we lose badly to Arky. We just don’t have the horses to win against good teams. (LSU is not a good team.) 

Arkansas is a really interesting run front. I think UGA early did some things (like actually throw a little) thinking they’d be stiffer than they were, but then, dives up the middle for 3 quarters. Ole Miss had some finesse running mixed in with power things, and everything stemmed from Corral’s RPO ability 

I don’t know what Auburn presents as a running threat consistently. Hunter has some fun sideline to sideline stuff, they run some things intended to get Shivers off tackle, but the holes close too quickly. I dunno

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,841]

7 offensive touchdowns through 3 games…one was against a team that gave up 45 to UK and the other two featured a bevy of red zone opportunities 

As good as I think play calling was between the 20s yesterday, much of THAT has to come to coaching man 

[WarEagle1983 2,185]

5 hours ago, NoALtiger said:

8 drops is unacceptable, that’s just a killer against most anyone in the league, much less an elite D like UGA. Good stuff as usual Stat, thank ya sir. 

Can someone tell me why Cannion(sp) is not getting more run? Is he in the dog house? grades? WHAT? He had one of the most spectacular catches against GA State and then didn't travel to LSU. I just don't understand the WR rotation...AT ALL. I know we don't have a #1 WR but at least give Malcom Johnson Jr, Cappers and Cannion an opportunity. 

[AU-24 3,124]

I have no idea if this is correct, just posting what I saw from: Brian Stultz • AuburnSports

Stats show that the Tigers dropped 17 passes in all. 

https://auburn.rivals.com/news/dropped-passes-remains-big-problem

On a sidenote, here is who we have a wide out four stars and above:

AUBURN

Demetris Robertson: .9905 (5-star)

Kobe Hudson: .9509 (4-star)

Ze'Vian Capers: .9389 (4-star)

Malcolm Johnson Jr.: .9189 (4-star)

Ja'Varrius Johnson: .8914 (4-star)

Edited October 11, 2021 by AU-24

[gabo4au 228]

I was actually surprised at the performance. I expected to get completely blown out early.

 

I thought the coaching staff had us as ready to play as possible and we showed some grit and determination. That's all on the coaches for not losing the team and throwing in the towel against superior talent.

 

While I would love to see us be able to run the ball, but I'm not convinced that's a good idea right now. Running the ball against GA, IMHO, would have resulted in many 3 and outs and killed us. We just can't block well enough to do that. With our talent level, we have to keep balance and try to keep the other team guessing. If the other team knows what we're doing, we're dead. A run heavy offense is just telling the D "we're going to line up and beat you," that's just not happening with our roster. Sure, once in a while our stellar backs are going to get a big gain because they are good. But a run heavy offense has to do it consistently, make first downs, and move down the field methodically. Anyone who thinks we can do that is delusional. 

 

So my take is, the coaching staff is doing a great job instilling an attitude and, I hate to say it, a process. We need to find a different word for it, because We Are Auburn! I think they are getting more out of our players than the previous coaching staff and building a culture. If they can keep them playing with this level of determination and grit for the rest of the year, win or lose, I'll be happy with the progress.

[AuMarine 1,372]

6 hours ago, WarEagle1983 said:

Can someone tell me why Cannion(sp) is not getting more run? Is he in the dog house? grades? WHAT? He had one of the most spectacular catches against GA State and then didn't travel to LSU. I just don't understand the WR rotation...AT ALL. I know we don't have a #1 WR but at least give Malcom Johnson Jr, Cappers and Cannion an opportunity. 

^^^this.. The catch Canion made in the GA State game on the sideline where he kept both feet down.. NFL catch. This kid should be getting some snaps. I am beginning to think we need to put his picture on a milk carton. With all the drops we have, definitely need to see fresh faces on the field. The rotation at wide receiver is a head scratcher for sure.  

[McLoofus 35,182]

11 hours ago, RunInRed said:

There's many reasons we lost Saturday, but as @StatTiger clearly points out above, it was not because of #10.

He was absolutely one of the reasons we lost and I don't think Stat really paints a different picture. We had a lot of drops but he also missed several open receivers. And the Shenker "drop" was a very poor pass that turned what should have been a routine catch into something far more difficult. 

It's fine to say the other skill players quite literally dropped the ball, because they absolutely did. But I'm not sure how that absolves Bo of his own shortcomings. 

[difball 313]

The game was over when Smoke was kicked out - we had been playing strong for a quarter and had them stopped at the goal line. You could hear the air leave the fans when he was tossed. Most in my section even commented that the game was over then - I agree. The crowd never got back up to the noise level it had prior to that play.

 

Also - this is a pretty tough indictment for the Mason D - last in the SEC and nearly last in the country

https://www.al.com/auburnfootball/2021/10/statistically-speaking-auburn-has-secs-worst-red-zone-defense-midway-through-season.html