Don’t be surprised if Auburn wins at LSU

[aubiefifty 17,478]

Don’t be surprised if Auburn wins at LSU

By Christopher Smith

5-6 minutes

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I bet Auburn -27 against Georgia State last week. My wager never had a chance.

To be fair, I didn’t know that Owen Pappoe would miss the game. Zakoby McClain also missed the first half due to a fourth-quarter targeting call against Penn State.

The Panthers didn’t score in the second half after McClain joined his teammates. Auburn also settled for four first-half field goals. As bad as it looked, Auburn could’ve pulled away if its linebackers played all 60 minutes.

If I had the guts, I’d back Auburn again this week, this time as a 3.5-point underdog at LSU.

The SEC’s orange-and-blue version of Tigers are a good team outside of the forward pass.

The Cajun version of Tigers are a hot mess. LSU was fortunate to beat Mississippi State. The Bulldogs outgained LSU by 143 yards, earned 14 more first downs and ran 34 more offensive snaps.

LSU hit on three busted coverages, including one play in which two Mississippi State defensive backs ran into each other on a crossing route. As a result, LSU scored on touchdown passes of 64, 58 and 41 yards.

LSU’s top receiver Kayshon Boutte is going to make more than one SEC defense look silly this season. All three of those touchdown passes count, and big plays are part of football. But outside of those busted coverages, Max Johnson completed 14 of 24 passes for 117 yards.

After losing projected starting left tackle Dare Rosenthal to Kentucky, his backup Cameron Wire has been dealing with an injury and has played just 32 snaps. Starting right tackle Austin Deculus has played most of the team’s snaps but has shown up on a few injury reports.

LSU’s offensive line is getting healthier. Perhaps it will start to improve with stability. But it has been dreadful.

The Tigers are rushing for 2.9 yards per carry, last in the SEC and 124th nationally. UConn, Southern Miss and New Mexico State have better per-carry averages.

Pro Football Focus also grades LSU’s running backs 120th in the country. Perhaps the offensive line shouldn’t get 100 percent of the blame. Projected starting running back John Emery Jr. is academically ineligible.

If Pappoe returns this week, don’t expect LSU to run the ball with much success.

Like most quarterbacks, the 6-foot-5 Johnson is accurate but not as good when you pressure him.

He doesn’t stoop to Bo Nix-level struggles when pressured. But among 107 quarterbacks with 25+ dropbacks in a muddy pocket this season, Johnson ranks 63rd in NFL passer rating. He finished last season 74th out of 161 in the same stat. His LSU teammate Myles Brennan finished fourth.

Get pressure on Johnson, avoid total busts in coverage and Auburn should keep LSU’s offense relatively in check.

When Auburn has the ball, who will play quarterback, Nix or TJ Finley? And will the Auburn offensive line be able to protect either player?

LSU leads the SEC with 18 sacks, four more than second-place Georgia.

Bryan Harsin seemed to insinuate after the Penn State loss that the team’s receivers deserved quite a bit of the responsibility for a lackluster passing performance. Auburn fired receivers coach Cornelius Williams after just four games.

Harsin had a ready-made replacement on staff in Eric Kiesau, his receivers coach at Boise State in 2017 and ‘18 and his co-coordinator and coordinator in ‘19 and ‘20. Perhaps the shakeup will coax a better performance out of Auburn’s pass-catchers.

LSU’s pass defense ranks 98th in EPA (Expected Points Added) per snap. So if LSU’s pressure doesn’t get home, its aggressive man coverage can break down.

ESPN’s SP+ would favor Auburn by 4.1 points on a neutral field as of today. The respected analytics service ranks Auburn slightly ahead of LSU head-to-head in all three phases of the game.

Good bettors ignore the final score and look at the ingredients. Scores can often be misleading, or at least not as predictive as what took place on a down-by-down basis. I think that’s the case with Auburn and LSU last week.

Sometimes, though, the best wagers are the ones you don’t make, even when you think you have an edge.

Auburn’s team passer rating is 12th in the SEC, ahead of only Texas A&M and Vanderbilt. No matter who plays quarterback and who coaches the receivers, I’m going to have to see it to believe it with this group, at least for this week.

Call Auburn +3.5 a strong lean for me this week. I may be kicking myself next week for not putting in a bet.

Christopher Smith specializes in handicapping college football and basketball. He founded Sports Locksmith to share his analysis.

[japantiger 4,064]

Bad LSU team...but I don't see it.  

[TheDob06 443]

Don't disagree with what was said in theory, but I think it depends on which Auburn team shows up. The one that took Penn State to the wire or the one that crapped the bed against Georgia State? Also, given LSU's lack of a rushing attack we have to stop the pass, which doesn't give me much comfort.

[AuburnTiger4Life 2,225]

 

[AUcivE09 582]

Both teams seem to be a bit of a hot mess right now, but we expected (or should have) expected to be one. LSU looked pretty good to end last season. I dont believe either fan base, truth be told, is very confident. That should at least make this an interesting game!

Above all else - we have one job. Cover your Boutte!

[AU9377 5,363]

This same Auburn team beat LSU like they stole our lunch money last year.  Simply winning the game, in BR or not, shouldn't be a stretch.  It won't be easy, but it is certainly more than possible.

[autigeremt 6,820]

I don't know what to think anymore when it comes to Auburn Football. I hope we can pull it (a win) off. 

[AuburnNTexas 7,233]

1 hour ago, AU9377 said:

This same Auburn team beat LSU like they stole our lunch money last year.  Simply winning the game, in BR or not, shouldn't be a stretch.  It won't be easy, but it is certainly more than possible.

The same Auburn Team minus all three starting receivers who had a field day. I think we have a chance to win but I really don't know what type team will show up for this game. Penn State gave me hope Ga. State made me miserable, so now it is wait and see.

[gr82b4au 5,568]

The last time Auburn beat LSU on the road, i was single. Now I am married with kids one of those kids goes to Auburn. That tells you how long it has been. After the game a few years ago where we were up three touchdowns and lost, I am weary. I keep saying it is going to end but now I am not so sure. Ha ha ha

[Stephen66 51]

Now that Gus is gone, you're facing the SEC's #1 moron.

[Old fan 47 777]

On 9/28/2021 at 6:48 PM, japantiger said:

Bad LSU team...but I don't see it.  

Agree. At this point I would be shocked if we beat anyone besides MSU and that’s def no given. Damn sure love being wrong in these cases though. 

[WFE12 9,192]

Guess this changes things a bit eh?

[AuburnTiger4Life 2,225]

4 minutes ago, WFE12 said:

Guess this changes things a bit eh?

Not really. He hasn’t looked good since his freshman year 

[Hank2020 3,231]

48 minutes ago, Old fan 47 said:

Agree. At this point I would be shocked if we beat anyone besides MSU and that’s def no given. Damn sure love being wrong in these cases though. 

We would enjoy you being wrong about that also.

[woodford 3,688]

On 9/29/2021 at 1:48 PM, AU9377 said:

This same Auburn team beat LSU like they stole our lunch money last year.  Simply winning the game, in BR or not, shouldn't be a stretch.  It won't be easy, but it is certainly more than possible.

Definitely possible but I need to see our defense apply pressure. If they can’t do that, we will get rolled no doubt. 

[WFE12 9,192]

1 hour ago, AuburnTiger4Life said:

Not really. He hasn’t looked good since his freshman year 

That's tough