Predicting offensive numbers

[aubiefifty 18,231]

Over/Under: Predicting Auburn's offensive numbers in 2021

Lance Dawe

3 minutes

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Let’s just say that the Chad Morris offense didn’t work out for Auburn in 2020.

It was not the most efficient unit Auburn has ever had. Auburn struggled to scheme receivers open, as well as constantly protect Bo Nix. It led to turnovers and an inconsistent running game.

This season, veteran coordinator Mike Bobo steps onto the scene with some optimistic things to say about what this offense could do in 2021.

Let’s take a look at last years statistics and predict if Auburn goes over or goes under those numbers in 2021.

Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

In order for this team to have success this season, they’ll have to score more than 25 a game. Add in non-conference play with games like Akron, Alabama State, Georgia State, and Auburn’s numbers should have a boost. But within conference play this offense is going to need to be more efficient with their drives. Auburn was second in the SEC in plays per drive, but they were seventh in the SEC in points per drive. Auburn was also seventh in the SEC in three and out percentage.

Auburn running back Shaun Shivers (8) runs the ball as Texas A&M defensive back Keldrick Carper (14) goes all in for a tackle at Jordan-Hare Stadium in Auburn, Ala., on Saturday, Dec. 5, 2020.
Auburn’s offense was eight in the SEC in yards per play in 2020, and I think they get over that mark this season. With a more efficient scheme, Auburn will get back in the top half of the SEC in this category.

Matt Bush-USA TODAY Sports

Tank Bigsby will run for over a thousand yards this season barring injury. Shaun Shivers will be more explosive between the tackles. Jarquez Hunter may see some time as well. Auburn’s backfield is more than capable of averaging more than 160 rushing yards per game, especially if the passing game falters.

Todd Van Emst/AU Athletics

Auburn receiver room may be young, but they are extremely talented. Throw in former five-star Demetris Robertson and Auburn should make major strides in the passing game. It may not happen immediately, but there is too much talent for Mike Bobo’s more complex offense to not work better than Morris’ did last season.

[Win4AU 4,182]

I think Auburn gets Tank to 1k rushing.  I'm not expecting a crazy change in numbers year 1.  If anything there could be a decline in production.  I still forsee Bo running for his life a good bit and receivers struggling with real routes.  I think year 2 will see a big jump in production considering Auburn doesn't lose a lot of skill players.  Other than the physical aspect of players working out at a college level for 4 years, I don't think losing a lot of the Oline will be a huge deal.  I forsee a good haul of HS, Juco, and Transfers this next class on the Oline.  The guys this year are basically starting freshmen mentally having to learn actual blocking schemes and techniques.  Rebuilding the Oline will be a 2-3 year minimum deal.  Harsin and Bobo will need to give Auburn fans enough hope that they can sit through some rough patches before this team hits its stride.  Think 1999-2003 Auburn football.  Win the West year 2 - cool, Get blown out by Arkansas 2 years in a row - bad, lose to a worse Alabama team - bad, beat a top ranked Florida team - good etc....

[aubiefifty 18,231]

i hope bo gets out there and kicks a ton of ass. there are a lot of folks doubting him and while that is normal these days i would love to see him rise up and destroy some teams. the same way with coach bobo. there sure are a lot of haters laughing at us picking him. this year without playing the first game has been the hardest for me since maybe the 9 and 0 run bama ran on us. my heart is hungry for a respectable season and reminding folks who we are on the field.