predictions for the season

[DAG 34,126]

55 minutes ago, Tigerpro2a said:

I think that would just be considered Hyping....for it to be overhyping there would need to be proof that they aren't at the level we project. Semantics though. I believe 100 that they are this good.

There isn’t proof. You have proof they are a top 3 sec defense?  We haven't been ranked in the top 3 in the SEC for total defense in years. Last year we had a top 4 passing defense, but top 3? Not in years. That can change this year. We haven't had a top 3 rushing defense since 2016. So, yes I think the over hype is real, but it can happen. Defensive line is questionable. The secondary seems to be the biggest strength yet.

Edited August 11, 2021 by DAG

[McLoofus 35,182]

38 minutes ago, toddc said:

There’s definitely more to it than experience and time at a position in their evals. I would also assume they are better than 90% of fans at it. Still doesn’t make them right though if you want to be precise. Past play would be the biggest indicator by far when making predictions-see Tank on 1st team.

Well, yes, I said there's more to it. And I don't know why you would assume that "the media" are going to do a better job of predicting who the best players in the league are than the fans can. As for Tank, sometimes it is undeniable at- as I alluded to- high profile positions when a guy shows out week after week. Tank was a household name by the end of last season. Can you think of a household name at the center position in the SEC this year, a la Landon Dickerson or whichever Pouncey snapped the ball at Florida? Can you name a single other center in the SEC? 

I can't. So I looked them up, since you were interested in continuing the conversation. Here are the centers currently projected to start for every other SEC team. For those that are upperclassmen, I listed their total number of starts. Feel free to share more thoughts on how past play definitely decided this ranking.

Vandy- SO
bama- SR with 7 total starts
TAMU- JR with 0 starts
UT- SO
USC- SR with 10 total starts
Missouri- SR with 33 starts... at Rutgers
Arkansas- JR with 8 starts at center and several starts at both guard positions
MSU- JR with 9 starts
Ole Miss- SR with 26 starts... at Utah
LSU- SR with 10 starts last season after transferring from Harvard
Kentucky- SR with 23 starts... at guard
uga- JR with 3 starts
UF- SR with 11 starts

Nick Brahms- SR with 21 starts, all at Auburn, all at center

 

 

 

[Tigerpro2a 5,650]

11 minutes ago, DAG said:

There isn’t proof. You have proof they are a top 3 sec defense?  We haven't been ranked in the top 3 in the SEC for total defense in years. Last year we had a top 4 passing defense, but top 3? Not in years. That can change this year. We haven't had a top 3 rushing defense since 2016. So, yes I think the over hype is real, but it can happen. Defensive line is questionable. The secondary seems to be the biggest strength yet.

Correct....there is no proof either way. 

[W.E.D 11,070]

2 hours ago, toddc said:

Nick Brahms SEC 1st team preseason pick . I don’t get why this board keeps saying we need a center.
 

2021 PRESEASON MEDIA DAYS ALL-SEC TEAM

OFFENSE

First-Team

QB - Matt Corral, Ole Miss

RB - Tank Bigsby, Auburn

RB - Isaiah Spiller, Texas A&M

WR - John Metchie III, Alabama

WR - Treylon Burks, Arkansas

TE - Jalen Wydermyer, Texas A&M

OL - Evan Neal, Alabama

OL - Darian Kinnard, Kentucky

OL - Kenyon Green, Texas A&M

OL - Cade Mays, Tennessee

C - Nick Brahms, Auburn

The media is really terrible on OL picks, especially preseason.  They have no idea what they are looking at and typically pick a starter that had 4+ stars, unless there is a clear obvious elite kid.

We've all seen with our eyes the center position be a near back hole for a few years.  Brahms hasn't been good his Auburn career.  Probably why he was close to just moving on to flying after he graduated this year.  There have been a few ppl on this board who know what to look for point out how he's not been good.  A few ppl on Twitter like Cole Cublic have also pointed that out.

tl:dr, media doesn't know what they are talking about 

[W.E.D 11,070]

37 minutes ago, DAG said:

There isn’t proof. You have proof they are a top 3 sec defense?  We haven't been ranked in the top 3 in the SEC for total defense in years. Last year we had a top 4 passing defense, but top 3? Not in years. That can change this year. We haven't had a top 3 rushing defense since 2016. So, yes I think the over hype is real, but it can happen. Defensive line is questionable. The secondary seems to be the biggest strength yet.

I would have guessed we were pretty close to a top 3 defense in 2017, but don't have anything in front of me

[AUloggerhead 2,319]

15-0, all the way baby!   All y'all suck at predictions.  When it happens, this season is going to be totally unpredictable, unexpected and AUsome.  Enjoy each win and 1-0 at a time!  

 

[bigbird 60,624]

1 hour ago, toddc said:

Past play would be the biggest indicator by far when making predictions

That's why so many are in a holding pattern in regards to the OL

[DAG 34,126]

37 minutes ago, Tigerpro2a said:

Correct....there is no proof either way. 

Haha what? The proof is they haven't been a top 3 defense in over a decade. Why do you think they are going to be a top 3 all of a sudden? I have my reasons but I know it is not based on anything statistically to prove that point. That’s called over hyping them and that’s fine. I completely can admit I am doing that. 

 

[DAG 34,126]

14 minutes ago, W.E.D said:

I would have guessed we were pretty close to a top 3 defense in 2017, but don't have anything in front of me

#5 total defense in the SEC. Alabama , UGA, LSU and Miss St were ahead of us. It is very hard to do for sure especially when you have UGA and Bama in your conference. 

[toddc 13,195]

6 minutes ago, bigbird said:

That's why so many are in a holding pattern in regards to the OL

I agree with that.

[W.E.D 11,070]

16 minutes ago, DAG said:

#5 total defense in the SEC. Alabama , UGA, LSU and Miss St were ahead of us. It is very hard to do for sure especially when you have UGA and Bama in your conference. 

Yds/Gm we were 5th, but looking now at PPG we were 3rd.  IDK which is really the best stat.  I'd probably go the later?  But could see an argument for both

Edited August 11, 2021 by W.E.D

[woodford 3,688]

9 wins. Our talent is utilized properly for the first time in years. We will beat average teams on talent alone like Auburn usually does. Still lose 3 because it’s the SEC and I’m not completely sure how Bo will do. 
 

Lose tough ones to Georgia, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M  

Win a huge game in Happy Valley, win in Death Valley against an underwhelming LSU, and beat Alabama in what will be a JHS that will be shaking for 60 minutes  

 

[DAG 34,126]

9 minutes ago, W.E.D said:

Yds/Gm we were 5th, but looking now at PPG we were 3rd.  IDK which is really the best stat.  I'd probably go the later?  But could see an argument for both

Yeah I think we edged out LSU that year in that statistic. And remember, that defense had bonafide NFL players on that squad. I think we had both Derrick and Marlon Davidson? Not too mention CD in the secondary and a very salty LB core. It is hard as hell being top 3 in the SEC.

[McLoofus 35,182]

23 minutes ago, DAG said:

#5 total defense in the SEC. Alabama , UGA, LSU and Miss St were ahead of us. It is very hard to do for sure especially when you have UGA and Bama in your conference. 

Also hard to analyze the stats when several opponents knew we wouldn't be scoring touchdowns. (Probably no accident that all four of the teams ahead of us in a defensive category also played against our offense.)

And that's not me beating a dead horse. It's a legitimate factor in how teams played us. I'm sure those who thought that Gus was strategically sound in shutting down the offense against LSU that season would agree. 

I refuse to take anything away from those players, though. Several guys from those squads will be wearing the terrible puke-green plaid jacket of the Loof HOF one day. 

[DAG 34,126]

1 minute ago, McLoofus said:

Also hard to analyze the stats when several opponents knew we wouldn't be scoring touchdowns. (Probably no accident that all four of the teams ahead of us in a defensive category also played against our offense.)

And that's not me beating a dead horse. It's a legitimate factor in how teams played us. I'm sure those who thought that Gus was strategically sound in shutting down the offense against LSU that season would agree. 

I refuse to take anything away from those players, though. Several guys from those squads will be wearing the terrible puke-green plaid jacket of the Loof HOF one day. 

It is a lot to go into it for sure. Point remains, we got to show it on the field consistently. I think we have the potential to do it on both ends of the ball, but all it is, is potential right now. The only for sure thing right now is Tank for me. You can add Smoke Monday in the secondary, but as a unit, I want to see some strives into excellence.

[Win4AU 4,057]

Based off all the sunshine I've heard recently 15-0.  

Akron - closer than maybe it should be with the new team 38-13

Alabama State - blowout

Penn State - Stingy D and run game quiet Happy Valley 31 -17

Ga State - Blowout

LSU - Baton Rogue beat down.  LSU is better but still not great.  38-21

UGA - huge momentum and the home crowd spring the upset - 27 -21

Arkanslaw - potential let down game.  No more Gus bowl.  No more coaches with ARky ties.  30 - 17

Ole Miss - trendy pic this season.  Defense forces Corral into mistakes.  D is still suspect. 38-24

TaMu - Talent and the home crowd keep this close. 31 - 27

Moo State - Leach gets offense better but defense starts to fade.  41 - 24

USCe - Auburn exercises some demons.  Bo Nix throws for 400+ 0 picks.  49 -17

Iron Bowl - Another Classic in JH.  Too many mistakes by Bryce - 34 -30

SEC Champ - UGA part 2.  Another tight one 31 -27

Playoff Round 1 - Oklahoma goes down to the SEC again - 42 -38

Championship Game - Auburn vs. Clemson in Indy.  Auburn is too much for their young QB  30 - 24

 

Edited August 11, 2021 by Win4AU

[W.E.D 11,070]

21 minutes ago, DAG said:

Yeah I think we edged out LSU that year in that statistic. And remember, that defense had bonafide NFL players on that squad. I think we had both Derrick and Marlon Davidson? Not too mention CD in the secondary and a very salty LB core. It is hard as hell being top 3 in the SEC.

Yeah, those players is why I thought we were possibly top 3.

If we're in the top ~6 it'll still be a really good defenses.

I'm bullish on our DL but there is a ton of unproven guys there. He'll It's almost all unproven guys. 

[BornAU76 403]

7-5 this year, as long we go 10-2 next season.  I'm willing to take some first year "getting to know ya" type games but want more, quickly.  I know...give it some time and stuff.  I want to see some W's!

[W.E.D 11,070]

21 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

Also hard to analyze the stats when several opponents knew we wouldn't be scoring touchdowns. (Probably no accident that all four of the teams ahead of us in a defensive category also played against our offense.)

And that's not me beating a dead horse. It's a legitimate factor in how teams played us. I'm sure those who thought that Gus was strategically sound in shutting down the offense against LSU that season would agree. 

I refuse to take anything away from those players, though. Several guys from those squads will be wearing the terrible puke-green plaid jacket of the Loof HOF one day. 

We had a really good offense in 2017. 4th in the SEC. 35.5 ppg. Only 2pts separated us vs Alabama, who was #1 at 37.5

[oracle79 3,569]

Like what I'm seeing so far. 8-4 regular season plus a bowl win for 9-4. Unless we have one of those magical seasons with a new head coach...lol. Then, you never know.

[Tigerpro2a 5,650]

1 hour ago, DAG said:

Haha what? The proof is they haven't been a top 3 defense in over a decade. Why do you think they are going to be a top 3 all of a sudden? I have my reasons but I know it is not based on anything statistically to prove that point. That’s called over hyping them and that’s fine. I completely can admit I am doing that. 

 

I am well aware of how our Defense has performed in years past. Past performance doesn't dictate what will happen this year. New staff. New scheme. 

I have my reasons as well as to why I think that. I think we will have one of the better secondaries in the country and that has been a weak point for a lot of AU defenses. I also think we have a solid LB core as well. Lastly, I believe that we have a coach that is chomping at the bit with the pieces he has to work with. 

Again, I am not arguing with you about semantics. I call it hyping, you call it over-hyping. Tomato tomato. I think we both believe the same things lol. Now, if after the season they do not perform to what I expect them to, then I would have been guilty of "over-hyping" them. 

[Tigerpro2a 5,650]

1 hour ago, DAG said:

It is a lot to go into it for sure. Point remains, we got to show it on the field consistently. I think we have the potential to do it on both ends of the ball, but all it is, is potential right now. The only for sure thing right now is Tank for me. You can add Smoke Monday in the secondary, but as a unit, I want to see some strives into excellence.

How dare you, Dag. Don't you dare talk about sure things without mentioning "The Alpha" the one Roger McCreary, who also happens to be my man crush. SHAME SHAME SHAME.

[AuburnNTexas 7,242]

I have been down on the O-line for a while now. A few things have made me think they will be better. Earlier this year there was a post where game film was broken down of some of our bad O-line play. It was both encouraging and discouraging. Encouraging because most of the time we got beat it was because of bad decisions by O-lineman not they were physically beaten discouraging because of the bad decisions by O-Lineman. Reasons I am feeling better bad decisions can be corrected with good coaching and players buying into the coaching, Players coming out of Winter workouts had positive weight gain and claimed to be stronger, New coaches pushing getting physically bigger and stronger and no tolerance for players arriving late or missing meetings. New coaches saying players have been buying into the system and doing the work.  

That is why I feel a little better about the O-line, but up till now my more optimistic view is basically based on talk both from players and coaches and the record of the new O-coaches at past positions. All that is great but until I see a few nasty pancake blocks, O-lineman seamlessly passing a defensive player onto another O-lineman and pick up another attacking defensive player. Another words until I see the individuals playing quickly and physically and the O-Line as a whole functioning like a well oiled machine in a few games I will reserve judgement as the old saying goes "Seeing is Believing".

Edited August 13, 2021 by AuburnNTexas

[toddc 13,195]

1 hour ago, W.E.D said:

Yds/Gm we were 5th, but looking now at PPG we were 3rd.  IDK which is really the best stat.  I'd probably go the later?  But could see an argument for both

PPG all day long 

[bigbird 60,624]

1 hour ago, Tigerpro2a said:

"The Alpha" the one Roger McCreary, who also happens to be my man crush.