Conference realignment 2021

[AUBwins 10,162]

Now that Texas and OU are members, I wanted a thread for all of the upcoming realignment discussions.  Being some could be coming to SEC, I put this in main forum.  Mods move to Rivals please if you deem it necessary. 

 

[AUBwins 10,162]

This is a link to a kansas message board on 247 I believe. A trusted source (from the UTx board)  seems to indicate Kansas to Big 10 by Friday.  Something like expansion with Pac 12 teams is falling through and they want to act now.  There is some interesting back and forth on it.  

https://247sports.com/college/kansas/board/103723/Contents/realignment-mega-thread-fka-texas-oklahoma-reach-out-to-sec-168057492/?page=296

[TigerHorn 1,357]

7 minutes ago, AUBwins said:

Now that Texas and OU are members, I wanted a thread for all of the upcoming realignment rumors and discussions.  Being some could be coming to SEC, I put this in main forum.  Mods move to Rivals please if you deem it necessary. 

 

I think that second one is the critical point - ESPN used OU as sort of a lower bound for "A-list teams" that would incrementally increase the total contract revenue. I don't know that either FSU or Clemson make that A-list, despite the latter's recent success. Clemson is too nouveau riche to have built a national following, and FSU has seen its national following melt away over the years. If a team doesn't meet ESPN's criteria for A-list, they won't increase the TV revenue to match. 

[AUBwins 10,162]

2 minutes ago, TigerHorn said:

I think that second one is the critical point - ESPN used OU as sort of a lower bound for "A-list teams" that would incrementally increase the total contract revenue. I don't know that either FSU or Clemson make that A-list, despite the latter's recent success. Clemson is too nouveau riche to have built a national following, and FSU has seen its national following melt away over the years. If a team doesn't meet ESPN's criteria for A-list, they won't increase the TV revenue to match. 

Are you on the UTx boards as well? Orangebloods? Just wondering if you could validate the Cujo source the kansas folks are talking about on their board. 

[AuCivilEng1 11,115]

Auburn being in the SEC has given us an enormous advantage in the region. I’m telling you guys now, this may help everyone financially, but adding blue bloods to the conference like this is going to hurt us. I guess you’d rather be in the new Super SEC than out of it. But, man I hope Harsin pans out to be one of those transcendent best coach we’ve ever had type hires, if this is what we are going to be competing with in conference play. 

Edited August 2, 2021 by AuCivilEng1

[TigerHorn 1,357]

4 minutes ago, AUBwins said:

Are you on the UTx boards as well? Orangebloods? Just wondering if you could validate the Cujo source the kansas folks are talking about on their board. 

Nah, I've been kind of ambivalent about 'Horn sports for a long time now. 

[WDE_OxPx_2010 5,334]

1 hour ago, TigerHorn said:

Nah, I've been kind of ambivalent about 'Horn sports for a long time now. 

Seems like 09 was the really the last time they were relevant. The BigXII title game gimmie vs Suh and Nebraska, if I remember correctly

[AUwent 3,784]

2 hours ago, AuCivilEng1 said:

Auburn being in the SEC has given us an enormous advantage in the region. I’m telling you guys now, this may help everyone financially, but adding blue bloods to the conference like this is going to hurt us. I guess you’d rather be in the new Super SEC than out of it. But, man I hope Harsin pans out to be one of those transcendent best coach we’ve ever had type hires, if this is what we are going to be competing with in conference play. 

The hope is that we won't have to play a uniquely tough schedule in the SEC anymore. Obviously I've been worried about us becoming like the Vawls, but I'm trying to find the positive?

Edited August 3, 2021 by AUwent

[woodford 3,688]

2 hours ago, AuCivilEng1 said:

Auburn being in the SEC has given us an enormous advantage in the region. I’m telling you guys now, this may help everyone financially, but adding blue bloods to the conference like this is going to hurt us. I guess you’d rather be in the new Super SEC than out of it. But, man I hope Harsin pans out to be one of those transcendent best coach we’ve ever had type hires, if this is what we are going to be competing with in conference play. 

People who are excited about this are not thinking long term. They're getting caught in the excitement. 95% of this site has not admitted to themselves that Auburn will become the definition of an average CFB program post 2025. 

[AUwent 3,784]

14 minutes ago, woodford said:

People who are excited about this are not thinking long term. They're getting caught in the excitement. 95% of this site has not admitted to themselves that Auburn will become the definition of an average CFB program post 2025. 

I want to move to the ACC. $ will keep that from happening but I'd like to see us avoid falling back to the '70s.

Edited August 3, 2021 by AUwent

[IronMan70 3,277]

It's almost perfect with 16 teams, 4 divisions (pods), 3+6 schedule, 2 year rotation. You have a real conference with that structure. With 18 teams you would lose your pods and are almost forced back into East/West divisions and playing the opposite division teams every few years, if you're lucky.

A 20 team conference with East/ West divisions is even worse for that type structure. However, 20 teams could be organized into 5 divisions (pods). The scheduling wouldn't be a smooth as with 16 teams, 4 divisions (pods) but it's workable. Personally I hope they stay with 16 but this thing is moving so fast it's hard to tell.

Edited August 3, 2021 by IronMan70

[autigeremt 6,832]

3 hours ago, AuCivilEng1 said:

Auburn being in the SEC has given us an enormous advantage in the region. I’m telling you guys now, this may help everyone financially, but adding blue bloods to the conference like this is going to hurt us. I guess you’d rather be in the new Super SEC than out of it. But, man I hope Harsin pans out to be one of those transcendent best coach we’ve ever had type hires, if this is what we are going to be competing with in conference play. 

I worry about that myself. Time will tell. 

[Dual-Threat Rigby 8,841]

3 hours ago, AuCivilEng1 said:

Auburn being in the SEC has given us an enormous advantage in the region. I’m telling you guys now, this may help everyone financially, but adding blue bloods to the conference like this is going to hurt us. I guess you’d rather be in the new Super SEC than out of it. But, man I hope Harsin pans out to be one of those transcendent best coach we’ve ever had type hires, if this is what we are going to be competing with in conference play. 

Yep, either Auburn returns to 80s-90s status, or they're going to be behind by decades (if he flops). Went from having to compete against two of the 5 best perennial programs to 3. 

Edited August 3, 2021 by Dual-Threat Rigby

[Rednilla 5,405]

9 hours ago, woodford said:

People who are excited about this are not thinking long term. They're getting caught in the excitement. 95% of this site has not admitted to themselves that Auburn will become the definition of an average CFB program post 2025. 

People who are legitimately excited about this don't know what they're talking about (or work for ESPN/other news outlet). My hope is that most of the people who are "excited" are more in the "well this is the way it's going to be, so I might as well get pumped" kind of lackadaisical excitement.

[augolf1716 21,564]

12 hours ago, TigerHorn said:

I think that second one is the critical point - ESPN used OU as sort of a lower bound for "A-list teams" that would incrementally increase the total contract revenue. I don't know that either FSU or Clemson make that A-list, despite the latter's recent success. Clemson is too nouveau riche to have built a national following, and FSU has seen its national following melt away over the years. If a team doesn't meet ESPN's criteria for A-list, they won't increase the TV revenue to match. 

Agree completely

[AuCivilEng1 11,115]

11 hours ago, AUwent said:

I want to move to the ACC. $ will keep that from happening but I'd like to see us avoid falling back to the '70s.

Being in the ACC would absolutely kill our recruiting. Being an SEC team is the only thing keeping our head above water. There is no escaping this. The SEC is expanding with teams that WILL out recruit Auburn on a regular basis. We may be a relatively not thought about team on a national level, now. But in 2025 we are going to become a not thought about team, in our own conference, most likely.

[Hank2020 3,232]

1 minute ago, AuCivilEng1 said:

Being in the ACC would absolutely kill our recruiting. Being an SEC team is the only thing keeping our head above water. There is no escaping this. The SEC is expanding with teams that WILL out recruit Auburn on a regular basis. We may be a relatively not thought about team on a national level, now. But in 2025 we are going to become a not thought about team, in our own conference, most likely.

I don’t see it this way at all. No data to support that view but it is my humble opinion.

[AUwent 3,784]

11 minutes ago, AuCivilEng1 said:

Being in the ACC would absolutely kill our recruiting. Being an SEC team is the only thing keeping our head above water. There is no escaping this. The SEC is expanding with teams that WILL out recruit Auburn on a regular basis. We may be a relatively not thought about team on a national level, now. But in 2025 we are going to become a not thought about team, in our own conference, most likely.

If that’s the case why do we even bother to have a football program…

Seriously though, it depends ENTIRELY on how the scheduling shakes out. Those power rankings posted recently made it sound like we’d somehow still be in the west with the addition of TX and OK, and that’s just dishonest framing.

Edited August 3, 2021 by AUwent

[AuCivilEng1 11,115]

9 minutes ago, Hank2020 said:

I don’t see it this way at all. No data to support that view but it is my humble opinion.

I mean, I have no hard proof that it will for sure happen. But we already have a hard time out recruiting Bama, Georgia, Florida, Texas AM, and LSU. Those teams, for different reasons, are just able to pull in top recruits more regularly. Texas and Oklahoma are also in that list, and now they can. Label themselves as SEC teams. Clemson is the 2nd hottest team of the past decade, and also kill us in recruiting. If they become an SEC team, they’ll boost themselves. And FSU is a historical blue blood is a recruiting hotzone (Florida). Being in the SEC will boost them as well. 
 

So with all of that being said, where does that leave Auburn? Here is a ranking of the SEC members and applicants over the last 150 years, using ESPN ranking model.

 

1. Bama

2. Oklahoma 

3. Texas

4. Tennessee 

5. LSU

6.Florida St.

7. Auburn

8. Florida

9. Georgia 

10. Clemson

I think we can all agree that Clemson and Georgia, and Florida realistically, are more capable than us these days, but Tennessee probably isn’t. So that would put us at 9th on the list. That’s smack dab in the middle of a 18 team conference.

[AuCivilEng1 11,115]

23 minutes ago, AUwent said:

If that’s the case why do we even bother to have a football program…

Seriously though, it depends ENTIRELY on how the scheduling shakes out. Those power rankings posted recently made it sound like we’d somehow still be in the west with the addition of TX and OK, and that’s just dishonest framing.

I mean you can have a program, fans can enjoy the games, and you can bring in a crap ton of money. You just have to reside yourself to the fact that, realistically, we won’t ever be much more than average.

[Rednilla 5,405]

24 minutes ago, AuCivilEng1 said:

Being in the ACC would absolutely kill our recruiting. Being an SEC team is the only thing keeping our head above water. There is no escaping this. The SEC is expanding with teams that WILL out recruit Auburn on a regular basis. We may be a relatively not thought about team on a national level, now. But in 2025 we are going to become a not thought about team, in our own conference, most likely.

I just can't agree with this line of thought. For one thing, hope springs eternal with a new regime, and I like what I'm seeing out of them so far. And remember, the only reason Harsin left Boise was because Auburn IS a big player on the national stage. Yes, we are currently overshadowed by a couple of SEC programs, but we have the history, tradition, and support of a traditional power in THE power conference. 

And what's more, the playoffs are expanding. The SEC will be able to put as many as 4 teams in the playoffs. If you don't think we can make the playoffs, and thus have a shot at it all, at least somewhat regularly under those conditions, then I don't know what to tell you.

[Rednilla 5,405]

3 minutes ago, AuCivilEng1 said:

I mean, I have no hard proof that it will for sure happen. But we already have a hard time out recruiting Bama, Georgia, Florida, Texas AM, and LSU. Those teams, for different reasons, are just able to pull in top recruits more regularly. Texas and Oklahoma are also in that list, and now they can. Label themselves as SEC teams. Clemson is the 2nd hottest team of the past decade, and also kill us in recruiting. If they become an SEC team, they’ll boost themselves. And FSU is a historical blue blood is a recruiting hotzone (Florida). Being in the SEC will boost them as well. 
 

So with all of that being said, where does that leave Auburn? Here is a ranking of the SEC members and applicants over the last 150 years, using ESPN ranking model.

 

1. Bama

2. Oklahoma 

3. Texas

4. Tennessee 

5. LSU

6.Florida St.

7. Auburn

8. Florida

9. Georgia 

10. Clemson

I think we can all agree that Clemson and Georgia, and Florida realistically, are more capable than us these days, but Tennessee probably isn’t. So that would put us at 9th on the list. That’s smack dab in the middle of a 18 team conference.

Okay, I'm sorry, but if we're doing the last 150 years, there is NO WAY that FSU is ahead of Auburn. Bobby Bowden made that program. They didn't even JOIN A POWER CONFERENCE until 1992. I don't believe they fielded but like 2 teams before the 1940s. 

[AuCivilEng1 11,115]

4 minutes ago, Rednilla said:

I just can't agree with this line of thought. For one thing, hope springs eternal with a new regime, and I like what I'm seeing out of them so far. And remember, the only reason Harsin left Boise was because Auburn IS a big player on the national stage. Yes, we are currently overshadowed by a couple of SEC programs, but we have the history, tradition, and support of a traditional power in THE power conference. 

And what's more, the playoffs are expanding. The SEC will be able to put as many as 4 teams in the playoffs. If you don't think we can make the playoffs, and thus have a shot at it all, at least somewhat regularly under those conditions, then I don't know what to tell you.

My pessimism is assuming that Harsin is in line historically with the other coaches we have had. If he turns out to be the best coach we’ve ever had, that will likely boost our recruiting and assist in the conference relevance situation. But ask yourself this. If Harsin was also offered the job at Bama, UGA, FSU, LSU, Clemson, Florida, Texas, Oklahoma or AM, would he come to Auburn?

[Rednilla 5,405]

9 minutes ago, AuCivilEng1 said:

I mean you can have a program, fans can enjoy the games, and you can bring in a crap ton of money. You just have to reside yourself to the fact that, realistically, we won’t ever be much more than average.

Dude, where is this coming from? Every coach we have had since 1981 has either won some sort of national championship or gone undefeated, save for Gus, who went to the national title game (and was OC for the NC). If Auburn's football program has been any kind of average over the last couple of decades, it's only because the highs and the lows counteract one another and the overall mean is not astounding.

[AuCivilEng1 11,115]

2 minutes ago, Rednilla said:

Okay, I'm sorry, but if we're doing the last 150 years, there is NO WAY that FSU is ahead of Auburn. Bobby Bowden made that program. They didn't even JOIN A POWER CONFERENCE until 1992. I don't believe they fielded but like 2 teams before the 1940s. 

They may not be, but they are at the least setup up for success on an even level. So that puts us at 8. The point is adding Ok, Texas, Clemson, and FSU puts 4 or 3  more teams above us in most categories. Auburn has made their living on “lightning in a bottle” players and scenarios historically. Those programs above us, have been far more consistent with their success winning and recruiting.