Breaking down 2021 schedule

[aubiefifty 18,231]

al.com

 

Breaking down Auburn’s 2021 football schedule

By Tom Green | tgreen@al.com

7-8 minutes

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Bryan Harsin’s first season at Auburn will have its share of challenges on the field.

The schedule for Year 1 of the Harsin era was laid out before the Tigers on Wednesday, when the SEC revealed the full slate of games across the conference for the 2021 season. After an unorthodox 2020 season that saw the league ditch nonconference games in favor of a 10-game, SEC-only schedule, things are expected to be back to normal for this fall: four nonconference games, with at least one Power 5 opponent, and an eight-game SEC schedule.

For Auburn, that nonconference slate includes home games against Akron, Alabama State and Georgia State, as well as an early-season road trip to take on Penn State in a marquee SEC-Big 10 matchup. Auburn’s conference schedule includes its usual odd-year SEC West gauntlet -- trips to LSU, Texas A&M and Arkansas, with home games against Ole Miss, Mississippi State and Alabama -- as well as cross-division games against Georgia (at home) and South Carolina (on the road.

With the dates set and the schedule finalized, here are some takeaways from the Tigers’ 2021 slate:

-- Auburn’s nonconference schedule will be out of the way early on. The Tigers open the season with four straight nonconference games, including back-to-back home games against Akron and Alabama State before that Week 3 trip to Penn State, followed by a return to Jordan-Hare Stadium to take on Georgia State. The Alabama State game was originally slated for November -- the week before the Iron Bowl -- but was moved to early in the season instead. It’s the first time since 1922 that Auburn will be opening the season with four consecutive nonconference opponents, and Auburn is the only team in the SEC this season with all of its out-of-conference games coming before the start of league play.

While that’s certainly unusual and Auburn won’t play its SEC opener until the start of October in Week 5, it does present an opportunity for Harsin’s team to get its feet under it in his first season. The Tigers should start, at worst, 3-1 to open the season -- with that trip to Penn State on Sept. 18 looming as the program’s first true test of the Harsin era.

-- October may not be as kind to Auburn. After those four nonconference games in September, Auburn has a potentially difficult start awaiting in SEC play. Auburn’s league opener on Oct. 2 will require a trip to Death Valley against LSU, where the program has not won a game since 1999, losing 10 consecutive matchups in Baton Rouge, La., during that span. LSU had a down season in 2020 following its 2019 national championship, but Ed Orgeron’s team will likely be improved this fall, and Auburn should be in for another challenge on the bayou.

Things don’t get easier for Auburn after that opener, either. The Tigers return home the following week for the 126th edition of the Deep South’s Oldest Rivalry against Georgia. It’s the second straight season that the cross-division rivalry will be played in early October, and while the Tigers will benefit from this year’s meeting coming at Jordan-Hare Stadium, it’s a rivalry that has largely favored Georgia in recent years, with the Bulldogs winning four in a row against the Tigers, seven of the last eight meetings and 13 of the last 16 overall dating back to 2006. That rivalry game will be followed by a trip to Arkansas against a Razorbacks team that gave Auburn a run last season and could foreseeably take another step forward in Year 2 under coach Sam Pittman. After that road trip, Auburn will have a chance to regroup with its lone bye week of the season in Week 8 before hosting Ole Miss on Oct. 30.

-- The final month of the season will be a challenge for Auburn, but also a chance for some redemption against three of the teams that beat the Tigers last season: Texas A&M, South Carolina and Alabama. Auburn opens the month with a road trip to Texas A&M, which finished 2020 as the nation’s fourth-ranked team and handed the Tigers a 31-20 loss on the Plains last December. Auburn is 4-0 at Kyle Field since Texas A&M joined the SEC, as the series has been mostly controlled by the road team over the last nine seasons.

After that, Auburn returns home to host Mike Leach and Mississippi State -- the team the Tigers defeated in their regular-season finale last year -- before a road trip to South Carolina in Week 12. Thanks to the quirk of the 2020 schedule, which added two additional cross-division games for each team, this will mark the second straight year that Auburn will travel to Columbia, S.C., to take on the Gamecocks. Of course, that’s a game South Carolina won early last season, handing Auburn its most perplexing loss of the year and one of the most confounding setbacks of Gus Malzahn’s eight-year tenure. Auburn won’t have to wait long for a chance to avenge that loss, with South Carolina remaining on the schedule for 2021. That game has added intrigue thanks to the construction of Harsin’s coaching staff, with Auburn poaching a pair of assistants -- offensive coordinator Mike Bobo and offensive line coach Will Friend -- from Shane Beamer’s staff.

-- The Iron Bowl is back in its traditional spot as the regular-season finale for Auburn and Alabama. The date of the game didn’t change last season; it was still the Saturday after Thanksgiving, but thanks to the altered 2020 schedule, there were still two weeks of the regular season remaining after that rivalry game. That won’t be the case this season, with the Tigers and Tide meeting in Jordan-Hare Stadium in Week 13 on Nov. 27 to close out the regular season. Auburn has won three of the last four Iron Bowls at Jordan-Hare Stadium, including back-to-back home wins in 2017 and 2019. And while Auburn will have its pre-Iron Bowl tune-up at South Carolina, Alabama will host Arkansas the week before the rivalry game.

-- In terms of schedule strength, half of Auburn’s games are against teams currently projected in ESPN’s way-too-early top 25 for the 2021 season. That includes Alabama (No. 2), Georgia (No. 4), Texas A&M (No. 6), Ole Miss (No. 18), LSU (No. 20) and Penn State (No. 22) -- with half of those games coming at home and half on the road. Of course, it remains to be seen what stadium attendance capacities will be by the time the season rolls around with regards to the status of the COVID-19 pandemic, so crowd sizes for all games are to be determined.

-- One other interesting note on Auburn’s schedule: After opening the year with back-to-back home games, the Tigers will alternate between road and home the rest of the way. That means no prolonged road trips -- not even back-to-back road games -- or extended homestands this season.

Tom Green is an Auburn beat reporter for Alabama Media Group. Follow him on Twitter @Tomas_Verde.

[W.E.D 11,071]

6-6 or 7-5 seem like the most reasonable outcomes

[autigeremt 7,205]

I’m going 9-4 with a bowl win. Finally 

[bigbird 60,939]

9 hours ago, autigeremt said:

I’m going 9-4 with a bowl win. Finally 

Which 4 do you think will be the losses?

[Win4AU 4,182]

UGA has the chance to be the team with Daniels.  Texas A&M has been stockpiling talent for years and depending on QB play could be really good again.  Penn State is a wildcard.  They were top 10 preseason and knowing Auburn’s luck they’ll rebound this year.  How good will teams like Ole Miss, Miss State, and Arkansas be in year 2?  Will Bama take a step back with all it’s losing on offense and Bill O’Brien as OC?  Can Auburn break the Red Stick curse?  LSU will be replacing all its coordinators again trying to recreate 2019.

[toddc 13,197]

19 minutes ago, bigbird said:

Which 4 do you think will be the losses?

I think it’s Penn State, turds, humpers, and lswho. I don’t like it playing at State, but could be a toss up 

[cole256 17,085]

I have us losing 4 I think the range of losses is 3-5

[bigbird 60,939]

14 minutes ago, cole256 said:

I have us losing 4 I think the range of losses is 3-5

That's where I'm at too. Just wondering exactly which teams though.

Just a gut feeling, but I think we beat PennSt. 

[Auctoritas 2,907]

3 minutes ago, bigbird said:

That's where I'm at too. Just wondering exactly which teams though.

Just a gut feeling, but I think we beat PennSt. 

I think so too. New OC (although supposedly a good one, although I'd like to see what it looks like without a Sam Ehlinger), and speaking of that, they haven't exactly fixed their QB problem. They had a lot of stuff wrong last year that was related to the pandemic, but that team looked more  out of sorts than any football team I can remember except for 2012 Auburn. Then again, we know what that next year looked like.
 

[aucom96 1,652]

Weak OL, ridiculously thin at RB, lost all of our playmakers at WR, defense is still growing and a pretty tough schedule. Arkansas, Ole Miss and State should all be improved and we barely beat Arkansas. We'll have them on the road this year. 

If Harsin gets 8 wins, we should all be very happy about the future. I'm thinking 6 or 7. Gus didn't leave us very well stocked and we'll be changing everything. Nevertheless, I'm very happy I won't be watching a Malzahn offense this Fall. 

[bigbird 60,939]

6 minutes ago, aucom96 said:

Weak OL, ridiculously thin at RB, lost all of our playmakers at WR, defense is still growing and a pretty tough schedule. Arkansas, Ole Miss and State should all be improved and we barely beat Arkansas. We'll have them on the road this year. 

If Harsin gets 8 wins, we should all be very happy about the future. I'm thinking 6 or 7. Gus didn't leave us very well stocked and we'll be changing everything. Nevertheless, I'm very happy I won't be watching a Malzahn offense this Fall. 

How many of the losses or close victories can be directly attributed to poor scheme and bad play calling? Just eliminate those two and we're automatically better.

[CameronCrazy 1,111]

Biggest question mark for me is can Bo Nix win on the road in Happy Valley if they have a packed stadium?

[cole256 17,085]

49 minutes ago, bigbird said:

That's where I'm at too. Just wondering exactly which teams though.

Just a gut feeling, but I think we beat PennSt. 

I think LSU, bammer, uga and maybe a&m.....depends on how the QB plays

[jAUSon 2,836]

48 minutes ago, bigbird said:

How many of the losses or close victories can be directly attributed to poor scheme and bad play calling? Just eliminate those two and we're automatically better.

A very good chance to compensate for those apparent weaknesses by just plain knowing how to play football in '21.

[W.E.D 11,071]

1 hour ago, bigbird said:

That's where I'm at too. Just wondering exactly which teams though.

Just a gut feeling, but I think we beat PennSt. 

PSU was one of the worst teams in the B1G last year. Idk if it was Covid related or what...that could definitely be a win

[bigbird 60,939]

54 minutes ago, cole256 said:

I think LSU, bammer, uga and maybe a&m.....depends on how the QB plays

I think we take 1 of those 3 and split TAMU and OM.

 

[W.E.D 11,071]

Assuming we stay healthy... Unless we can improve our scheme and coaching so much to over come some apparent weakness or they really weren't weaknesses, just massive coaching failures, this is How I see it:

Easy wins: 3 cupcakes 

Should win: State+ @South Carolina

Toss ups: @PSU, Ole Miss, Ark

TD+ Dogs: @LSU, @Aggies

10+ Dogs: Bama, UGA

 

8-4 would be two good wins vs much improved Ole Miss and Arkansas and a OOC Road win. That would be good 

9 wins means a major road upset or actually beating one of our two biggest rivals. 

Aggies could struggle to reload and that outlook might be different in November. Conversely, PSU could be better than last year if it was just Covid issues. 

[gravejd 3,304]

I think it’ll depend on how our defense adjusts to the new scheme. If we are really doing a full on change to the 3-4 look then that could be a problem. Teams almost always struggle first year doing this switch. 
 

I have more hope with the offense adjusting easier to a new scheme. Maybe it is wishful thinking but with the last scheme being so simple I gotta expect improvement on that side of the ball just because our opponents won’t know the plays as well. 
 

Having the 3 tune up games in first 4 is big. I’m hoping and expecting 7 or 8 wins next season. I think we could win against some decent teams like Penn St, A&M, and LSU and then lose to a team like Miss St and ole miss who have schemes that can confuse our defense and exploit that for big points. 

[cole256 17,085]

1 minute ago, gravejd said:

I think it’ll depend on how our defense adjusts to the new scheme. If we are really doing a full on change to the 3-4 look then that could be a problem. Teams almost always struggle first year doing this switch. 
 

I have more hope with the offense adjusting easier to a new scheme. Maybe it is wishful thinking but with the last scheme being so simple I gotta expect improvement on that side of the ball just because our opponents won’t know the plays as well. 
 

Having the 3 tune up games in first 4 is big. I’m hoping and expecting 7 or 8 wins next season. I think we could win against some decent teams like Penn St, A&M, and LSU and then lose to a team like Miss St and ole miss who have schemes that can confuse our defense and exploit that for big points. 

I agree, as far as defense. And I don't think it will be an easy transition. I don't think we were tough enough in any way and it's going to take a season for us to get that back in us

[SumterAubie 3,086]

3 hours ago, bigbird said:

How many of the losses or close victories can be directly attributed to poor scheme and bad play calling? Just eliminate those two and we're automatically better.

 

2 hours ago, jAUSon said:

A very good chance to compensate for those apparent weaknesses by just plain knowing how to play football in '21.

Right. Just do the basic football boilerplate things. Instead of trying to look so smart by doing weird sh!t. Such as changing the game plan to using 5 qbs a week before playing the game.

[Auhud08 596]

Penn State, LSU, and Texas A&M are pivotal games. That said we cant overlook anyone and better be prepared for a fight against Mississippis and Arkansas

[Hank2020 3,355]

21 minutes ago, Auhud08 said:

Peen State, LSU, and Texas A&M are pivotal games. That said we cant overlook anyone and better be prepared for a fight against Mississippis and Arkansas

A school will not survive w/o being at least competitive ( even Vandi) so they are all trying to get there making every game important to prepare for.

[Proud Tiger 4,261]

On 1/29/2021 at 11:55 AM, W.E.D said:

6-6 or 7-5 seem like the most reasonable outcomes

I agree. I wish I felt better but at least five other SEC teams have had higher recruiting classes recently. Coaching can only do so much. But time will tell.

[W.E.D 11,071]

2 hours ago, Auhud08 said:

Peen State, LSU, and Texas A&M are pivotal games. That said we cant overlook anyone and better be prepared for a fight against Mississippis and Arkansas

PSU was bad last year.  I'm not exactly sure what they are looking like in '22, but right now PSU is probably the most important game on our schedule.

No one is expecting us to beat the big 4 in the SEC, so losses them aren't going ot hurt much outside our feelings.  But PSU will be a national game and give Auburn the opportunity to set our narrative nationally.  New Staff, new team, new scheme vs a B1G Legacy.

Win that game and it's going to do wonders to recruiting and the future of our program

[Auhud08 596]

1 hour ago, W.E.D said:

PSU was bad last year.  I'm not exactly sure what they are looking like in '22, but right now PSU is probably the most important game on our schedule.

No one is expecting us to beat the big 4 in the SEC, so losses them aren't going ot hurt much outside our feelings.  But PSU will be a national game and give Auburn the opportunity to set our narrative nationally.  New Staff, new team, new scheme vs a B1G Legacy.

Win that game and it's going to do wonders to recruiting and the future of our program

I agree, i do think TAMU and LSU are vulnerable. Both on the road makes it that much more difficult though