'Call his bluff': Edward Norton lays out poker-style Trump analysis we never expected

[aubiefifty 18,231]

'Call his bluff': Edward Norton lays out poker-style Trump analysis we never expected

 

Nardine Saad

Fri, November 20, 2020, 12:36 PM CST·4 min read

 

 

Actor Edward Norton is using poker knowledge to analyze Donald Trump's lame-duck period. (Kirk McKoy / Los Angeles Times)

Actor Edward Norton knows a thing or two about playing poker and is using that knowledge to call what he sees as Donald Trump's bluff.

The Oscar-nominated star broke down the president's "desperate endgame" on Friday, giving followers a nuanced political analysis that likened Trump's lame-duck period — and reluctance to peacefully transfer power to President-elect Joe Biden — to a failed poker hand.

Alas, there is no trump card in this game play.

 

"The Illusionist" star called Trump's actions a "contemptible, treasonous, seditious assault" on the stability of the country and its institutions, and that's when he put it lightly. Norton has been a vocal opponent of Trump and GOP leaders enabling him for quite some time. He's also an active proponent of Democratic candidates in the decisive Georgia run-off elections to determine party majority in the U.S. Senate.

"I’m no political pundit but I grew up w[ith] a dad who was a federal prosecutor & he taught me a lot & I’ve also sat a fair amount of poker w[ith] serious players & l’ll say this: I do not think Trump is trying to ‘make his base happy’ or ‘laying the groundwork for his own network,' or that ‘chaos is what he loves," Norton said in series of tweets Friday morning.

"The core of it is that he knows he’s in deep, multi-dimensional legal jeopardy & this defines his every action," he continued in the thread. "We’re seeing 1) a tactical delay of the transition to buy time for coverup & evidence suppression 2) above all, a desperate endgame which is to create enough chaos & anxiety about peaceful transfer of power, & fear of irreparable damage to the system, that he can cut a Nixon-style deal in exchange for finally conceding. But he doesn’t have the cards. His bluff after ‘the flop’ has been called in court."

The "Rounders" star, who's played in several poker tournaments, broke down Trump's "flop," and what he also considers to be the outgoing president's turn and river cards.

"[T]hey have to be called," Norton wrote. "We cannot let this mobster bully the USA into a deal to save his ass by threatening our democracy. THAT is his play. But he’s got junk in his hand. So call him."

The "American History X" actor wasn't above name-calling the 45th U.S. president — some choice words were "whiny, sulky, petulant, Grinchy, vindictive" — and accused him of throwing "a wicked pout fest & trying to give a tiny-hand middle finger to the whole country for pure spite, without a single thought for the dead & dying."

He continued to break down Trump's actions as an effort to "leverage to trade for a safe exit."

"Call. His. Bluff," Norton tweeted.

"Faith in the strength of our sacred institutions & founding principles is severely stretched...but they will hold. They will," he concluded. "He’s leaving, gracelessly & in infamy. But if we trade for it, give him some brokered settlement, we’ll be vulnerable to his return. We can’t flinch.

See the whole thread below:

This story originally appeared in Los Angeles Times.

[aubiefifty 18,231]

i think this cat is on to something. this is what i believe. he knows he is toast when he loses the presidential protections he enjoys right now. and i bet they are deleting emails and making stuff go away as hard as they can.............

[homersapien 12,230]

Now for the bad news:   Biden is not going to push for accountability. 

I don't like it - but I understand it.

Hopefully, accountability will come from other sectors of the government - even if only at the state level - as well as the press.   It needs to be exposed for the sake of our future as a democratic republic.  

 

[CleCoTiger 1,957]

2 hours ago, homersapien said:

Now for the bad news:   Biden is not going to push for accountability. 

I don't like it - but I understand it.

Hopefully, accountability will come from other sectors of the government - even if only at the state level - as well as the press.   It needs to be exposed for the sake of our future as a democratic republic.  

 

I read Biden's remarks somewhat differently. He was basically saying "I'm not going to be Trump and call for the DoJ to be my enforcer by prosecuting political enemies. My administration will not be about 'Lock him up!'  The DoJ in my administration will function independently. They will be able to follow the evidence and do what they think needs to be done without interference from me."

So the way I read it is...the very pissed off prosecutors in the DoJ can turn over all the rocks they want. Biden just isn't going to tell them what to do.

[aubiefifty 18,231]

when people like trump abuse office like he has they should be held accountable in case someone wants to do it down the road. i doubt i will ever be swayed from that.

[CleCoTiger 1,957]

1 hour ago, aubiefifty said:

when people like trump abuse office like he has they should be held accountable in case someone wants to do it down the road. i doubt i will ever be swayed from that.

Full accountability under the law for someone like Trump is the only option. I'm of the same opinion as others who think his desperate attempts to hold onto power are driven by his fear of being held accountable. I would not be at all surprised if he tries to issue a pardon to himself for federal crimes (though I really can't see how a president could be held to have the power to pardon themselves as that power would render them essentially unaccountable under the law and in fact above the law as with kings before the Magna Carta.) Of course he can't pardon himself from state crimes...and I think he has likely run his personal life and businesses as criminal enterprises. Here's to fruitful investigations in New York and elsewhere!

[TitanTiger 21,241]

My guess is, Biden won't pursue federal charges against Trump for the sake of unity and attempting to bring the country back together ala Ford's pardon of Nixon.  But that won't shield Trump from state charges such as in New York State who could pursue Trump for various things even if Biden went so far as to issue an official pardon.

[homersapien 12,230]

11 hours ago, CleCoTiger said:

I read Biden's remarks somewhat differently. He was basically saying "I'm not going to be Trump and call for the DoJ to be my enforcer by prosecuting political enemies. My administration will not be about 'Lock him up!'  The DoJ in my administration will function independently. They will be able to follow the evidence and do what they think needs to be done without interference from me."

So the way I read it is...the very pissed off prosecutors in the DoJ can turn over all the rocks they want. Biden just isn't going to tell them what to do.

I sincerely hope you are right.  But it starts and ends with the AG, and Biden will undoubtedly let him know what his general priorities are.

It's a dilemma.  Our country is extremely polarized but accountability is essential for the long term health of our democracy, especially if Trump intends to run again in 2024.

[Grumps 3,706]

52 minutes ago, homersapien said:

I sincerely hope you are right.  But it starts and ends with the AG, and Biden will undoubtedly let him know what his general priorities are.

It's a dilemma.  Our country is extremely polarized but accountability is essential for the long term health of our democracy, especially if Trump intends to run again in 2024.

I absolutely think that Trump is incredibly egotistical. If he runs for POTUS in 2024 then he would have to be THE MOST egotistical person who has ever lived. Please don't let that be the case!

[homersapien 12,230]

Trump should be held accountable to the emoluments clause:

7 Key Findings About Trump’s Reinvented Swamp

The president built a system of favor-seeking at his hotels and resorts that is unrivaled in modern American politics.

By The New York Times,Published Oct. 10, 2020Updated Nov. 1, 2020

Campaigning four years ago as a Washington outsider, Donald J. Trump electrified rallies with his vows to “drain the swamp.” But once he was in the White House, President Trump didn’t merely fail to end Washington’s insider culture of lobbying and favor-seeking. He reinvented it, turning his own hotels and resorts into the Beltway’s new back rooms, where public and private business mix and special interests reign.

Federal tax-return data for Mr. Trump and his business empire obtained by The New York Times shows that even as he leveraged his image as a successful businessman to win the presidency, large swaths of his real estate holdings were under financial stress, having racked up losses over the preceding decades.

After the election, his family business discovered a lucrative new revenue stream: people who wanted something from the president.

An investigation by The Times has found over 200 companies, special-interest groups and foreign governments that patronized Mr. Trump’s properties while reaping benefits from him and his administration. Nearly a quarter of those patrons have not been previously reported.

Here are some key findings from the investigation.

The president’s family business earned millions from customers with interests before his administration

Just 60 customers with interests at stake before the administration brought the Trump Organization nearly $12 million during the first two years of Mr. Trump’s presidency, The Times found. Almost all saw their interests advanced, in some fashion, by the president or his government.

Interviews with nearly 250 business executives, club members, lobbyists, Trump property employees and current or former administration officials provided a comprehensive account of how well customers fared with the administration — and how the president profited.

Many said in interviews that any favorable outcome was incidental to their patronage. But whether these customers won or lost, Mr. Trump benefited. They paid his family business for golf outings and steak dinners, for huge corporate retreats and black-tie galas.

During Mr. Trump’s campaign and the months leading up to his inauguration, the in-house magazine at his Mar-a-Lago club in Florida announced nearly 100 new members, a number of whom had significant business interests in Washington. The tax records show that in 2016 alone, the club’s initiation fees delivered close to $6 million in revenue.

The president kept an eye on the Trump Organization from Washington

As president-elect, Mr. Trump had pledged to step back from the Trump Organization and recuse himself from his private company’s operation. As president, he kept watch on properties run by the company, which is now led by his sons Eric and Donald Jr.

Dealbook: An examination of the major business and policy headlines and the power brokers who shape them.

When Mr. Trump stopped by the Trump International Hotel in Washington, he sometimes let managers know he was being briefed on their performance. At Mar-a-Lago, he told longtime members that he ought to raise prices on the new crowd angling to join. Then he did, at least twice.

Eric Trump sometimes told his father about specific groups that had booked events at Mar-a-Lago, a former administration official said. And as Mr. Trump surveyed his business empire from the White House, he occasionally familiarized himself with details from club membership lists, according to two people with knowledge of the activity.

Getting access to Mr. Trump was easy: He has spent time at his hotels and resorts on roughly one day out of every four of his presidency

When the president walked into his Washington hotel for dinner, word seemed to spread almost instantaneously. People might camp out at the hotel bar for hours, hoping for even a brief audience. At Mar-a-Lago, members paid Mr. Trump to spend time at what was, ultimately, his home. During meals, people would line up at his table. Guests, even paying members, had a habit of thanking Mr. Trump for having them over.

“People know and expect him to be at Mar-a-Lago, so they’ll bring a guest or come with a specific idea,” said Fernando Cutz, a former national security aide who often visited the club with Mr. Trump. “With that access, you could pitch your ideas. With this president, he’d actually listen and direct his staff to follow up.”

And chances were good he’d be around. Mr. Trump has visited the Trump family’s hotels and resorts on nearly 400 days of his presidency.

Victories were as weighty as a presidential directive and as ephemeral as a presidential tweet

Patrons at the properties ranged widely: foreign politicians and Florida sugar barons, a Chinese billionaire and a Serbian prince, clean-energy enthusiasts and their adversaries in the petroleum industry, avowed small-government activists and contractors seeking billions from ever-fattening federal budgets.

Mr. Trump’s administration delivered them funding and laws and land. He handed them ambassadorships, appointments, presidential directives and tweets.

More than 70 advocacy groups, businesses and foreign governments threw events at the properties that had previously been held elsewhere, or created new events that drove dollars into Mr. Trump’s business.

Donors also paid for the privilege of giving money to his campaign and super PAC. Mr. Trump attended 34 fund-raisers held at his hotels and resorts, events that brought them another $3 million in revenue. Sometimes, he lined up his donors to ask what they needed from the government.

Some customers framed their patronage in religious terms

Almost from the outset of the Trump presidency, his Washington hotel was a hub of religious gatherings, fund-raisers and tours — events that converted Mr. Trump’s most loyal voters into some of his most reliable customers.

Prominent evangelical ministers were given V.I.P. status at the hotel, according to former employees, with their names and pictures distributed to the staff alongside those of senior Republican lawmakers and Fox television luminaries. And they spent big.

Unlike businesses and trade groups, many religious conservatives explicitly linked their support of Mr. Trump’s business to his administration’s socially conservative agenda. Some explained in interviews how Mr. Trump had delivered so much for evangelicals — on abortion, judges, Israel and more — that they wanted to show their gratitude.

“If we can support this president by having dinner or staying at the hotel, then we want to do that,” said Sharon Bolan, an evangelist from Dallas who belongs to Mr. Trump’s national faith leaders group.

Even politicians from small countries rubbed shoulders with the leader of the free world

The Times identified more than 20 foreign officials, politicians and businesses or groups closely affiliated with governments abroad that held events at Mr. Trump’s properties or paid for rooms there.

For foreign politicians on the lower rungs of Washington’s diplomatic ladder, even a chance meeting with the American president can be a significant propaganda victory. At a gala held by local Republicans last spring at Mar-a-Lago, the head of Romania’s sixth-largest political party shook hands with Mr. Trump. And some embassies moved their annual galas or independence commemorations to the Washington hotel.

When the prime minister of the Serbian enclave in Bosnia, Zeljka Cvijanovic, stopped at the hotel and met Kellyanne Conway and Sarah Huckabee Sanders, she issued a news release almost suggestive of a state function. “On the first day of her visit to Washington, Prime Minister Cvijanovic met with the closest associates of the US President,” it proclaimed.

Selfies and social media posts chronicled the favor-seeking

Many of those seeking help from his administration were not shy about advertising their access to the president’s realm. The Times’s investigation includes a review of hundreds of social media posts, many by patrons enthusiastically documenting their visits to Mr. Trump’s properties, as well as an array of published news articles where some patrons spoke candidly about their access.

“Once he became president, everyone wanted to be around him,” said Jeff Greene, a Florida real estate developer and Mar-a-Lago member. It wasn’t influence-peddling, Mr. Greene said. “People like to be where presidents are.”

The Trump Organization did not respond to repeated requests for comment over the past week, nor did it respond to a detailed description of facts included in the article.

A White House spokesman, Judd Deere, issued a brief statement saying that Mr. Trump had “turned over the day-to-day responsibilities of the very successful business he built” to his two adult sons. “The president has kept his promise every day to the American people to fight for them, drain the swamp and always put America first,” he added.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/10/us/trump-hotels-resorts-takeaways.html

[homersapien 12,230]

The Swamp That Trump Built

A businessman-president transplanted favor-seeking in Washington to his family’s hotels and resorts — and earned millions as a gatekeeper to his own administration.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/10/us/trump-properties-swamp.html?action=click&module=RelatedLinks&pgtype=Article

[Grumps 3,706]

If you know you have the winning hand you don't have to even consider whether the other person is bluffing or not. Just play your hand and take your chips.