aubiefifty 18,231 Posted October 6, 2020 Share Posted October 6, 2020 al.com Ignore perfect storm and back Auburn vs. Arkansas By Christopher Smith 5-6 minutes If you just read headlines, you may have been tempted to hammer a bet on Arkansas when the lines opened Sunday. Auburn lost to Georgia, 27-6, in a game that wasn’t that close. Arkansas beat Mississippi State, which smashed LSU, one week after leading Georgia at halftime. In what world should the Tigers be favored by more than two touchdowns against an SEC team not named Vanderbilt, right? Not so fast. Circa Sports, which releases the world openers for college football betting lines, made the Tigers an 18-point favorite. That number got knocked down as low as Auburn -15 by Sunday evening, and that’s where I bet on the Tigers. Auburn is not as bad as it seems and Arkansas is not as good as it seems. Let’s look at the hidden factors that are giving Auburn some extra value in the betting market this week. Fade the Arkansas offense while you can Sportsbooks typically don’t release team totals until later in the week. I’ll be eager to see what number they post on the Arkansas team total against Auburn. Arkansas' offense has scored 24 points on 29 drives this season. The Razorbacks have rushed for 2.2 yards per carry and have converted just 8 of 30 third- and fourth-down attempts (26.7 percent). Arkansas' defense contributed a 69-yard interception return for a touchdown to help them beat Mississippi State. Florida transfer quarterback Feleipe Franks completed just 59 percent of his passes throwing to the Gators receivers the last three seasons. For reference, Kyle Trask has completed 67.6 percent of his passes in the same offense. Instead of throwing to Van Jefferson and Kyle Pitts, Franks is now throwing to Arkansas leading receiver De’Vion Warren, a 5-foot-10 senior who was a three-star member of the 2017 class. This is major class relief for Auburn, which got surprisingly bullied by what’s probably Georgia’s worst offensive line in a few years. Safety Smoke Monday got ejected for targeting early. The emergence of Kearis Jackson at receiver along with George Pickens and an effective running game made Georgia a tough cover. The Tigers defensive line isn’t what it was the last two seasons, but it isn’t as bad as it sometimes looked Saturday. That will be apparent against Arkansas. Auburn’s offense will play better vs. Arkansas Bo Nix has consistently struggled against top 25 defenses and against pressure, real or perceived. Facing an early deficit against Georgia was the stuff of nightmares. The Bulldogs may have a historic defense if you believe some of the advanced stats like SP+ and the recruiting rankings. Add to that a below-average SEC offensive line, the absence of starting running back Shaun Shivers and the early exit of starting receiver Eli Stove and the degree of difficulty was too much to overcome. Arkansas' defensive numbers are excellent so far this season. According to SEC StatCat, Arkansas is second in the SEC in defensive success rate (36.7 percent) and third in expected points added per play (0.947). But the Razorbacks got to defend Georgia with quarterback D’Wan Mathis for a chunk of the season opener. Mathis was 8 of 17 for 55 yards and an interception and he rushed 10 times for four yards. Against Mississippi State, coordinator Barry Odom made a simple schematic decision, albeit one that LSU failed to make at any point the week prior. Arkansas dropped eight players into coverage, took away the short crossing routes that Air Raid offenses exploit against man coverage and disrupted the timing of an offense that’s still very new to the players running it. Smart football people were shocked at how LSU chose to defend Mike Leach’s version of the Air Raid, which has hardly changed since he left Texas Tech in 2009. I think Odom was an excellent coordinator hire for Sam Pittman, I wouldn’t crown his Arkansas defense just yet. Consider the luck Arkansas had against Mississippi State: RB Kylin Hill, who exploded for 192 yards against LSU, got knocked out of the game after one carry for seven yards. Mississippi State turned the ball over four times. Mississippi State’s final five drives ended on 1) an interception deep in Arkansas territory, 2) a three-and-out, 3) a turnover on downs (fourth-and-2 at the Arkansas 13), 4) another turnover on downs (fourth-and-2 from the Arkansas 7), and 5) as the game clock expired. Arkansas-Auburn betting analysis The best wager on this game probably was under 61, which is the total that Circa Sports posted Sunday. That didn’t last long, as the number dipped as low as 50 by mid-day Monday. An 11-point move on a total without any significant injury or suspension news is rare. Auburn is now favored by 16.5 points. I am happy with my Auburn -15 ticket, as I projected Auburn as a 19-point favorite. Given that 17 is a key number, I still like Auburn against the spread, though I think there are some other games with larger edges. If you want to bet on the game at this point, I’d suggest looking for an Arkansas team total later in the week or putting in a small play on Auburn -16.5. Christopher Smith is a professional handicapper who specializes in college football and basketball. He’s the founder of Sports Locksmith. Note to readers: if you purchase something through one of our affiliate links we may earn a commission. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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