Auburn run defense vs. Kentucky key to handicapping Tigers

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Auburn run defense vs. Kentucky key to handicapping Tigers

Updated Sep 22, 2020; Posted Sep 22, 2020

TAMPA, FLORIDA - JANUARY 01: Big Kat Bryant #1 of the Auburn Tigers reacts to a play during the 2020 Outback Bowl against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Raymond James Stadium on January 01, 2020 in Tampa, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)Getty Images

 

 

By Christopher Smith

In a conference-only season, Kentucky is an ideal opening-week opponent for Auburn.

It’s a game Auburn should win. At the same time, the Wildcats are good enough at the line of scrimmage to help the Tigers evaluate their biggest weaknesses.

Before you scoff at the notion that Kentucky can even compete with Auburn, consider that Circa Sports and BetOnline (usually first to market) both opened at Auburn -10 on Sunday. Kentucky has drawn serious money, including from me at +9.5.

The betting line vacillated between Auburn -7 and -7.5 for most of the day Tuesday. ESPN’s SP+ ranks Auburn eighth among FBS teams that are currently active and Kentucky 15th, which isn’t a huge gap.

Kentucky is 32-20 overall and 18-18 in the SEC since 2016. The team’s SEC record during that time is seventh-best in the SEC, one game behind Texas A&M.

 

Coach Mark Stoops has consistently beaten expectations. That includes last season when his team went 10-3 against the spread mostly while starting a receiver at quarterback after losing running back Benny Snell Jr. and linebacker Josh Allen.

 

Most gave all the credit to Lynn Bowden Jr. But Stoops has turned Kentucky into a bona fide SEC team at the line of scrimmage, where he’s stocked his roster with four-star recruits.

Auburn lost defensive tackle Derrick Brown (No. 7 overall) and DE Marlon Davidson (No. 47 overall) to the NFL draft. The Tigers feature a good group of linebackers, but we’ll find out a lot about the team’s pass rush and run defense in this first game.

 

Phil Steele and Pick Six Previews both ranked Kentucky’s offensive line in the top 5 nationally before the season – rankings that included the Big Ten and Pac-12. That’s the type of respect that Auburn’s defensive line achieved before last season.

 

Kentucky center Drake Jackson is one of the best in the country. He and left tackle Landon Young (6-foot-7, 321 pounds) are NFL draft prospects.

Phil Steele picked right tackle Darian Kinnard (6-foot-5, 345 pounds) as part of his preseason first-team All-SEC. Athlon Sports and Lindy’s Sports selected Luke Fortner as third-team All-SEC.

 

Running backs A.J. Rose, Christopher Rodriguez and Kavosiey Smoke are nice players. But they would not have rushed for a combined 1,975 yards on 6.2 yards per carry last season without a great offensive line, even with Bowden making linebackers hesitate.

 

Things aren’t much different on the other side of the football. Center Nick Brahms is Auburn’s only returning starter on the offensive line, and he made five starts last season.

Kentucky’s defensive line can’t match the strength of its offensive line. But two of Kentucky’s three starting defensive linemen earned at least third-team preseason All-SEC honors.

 

I think Auburn’s skill talent is as exciting as it has been in several years. Assuming quarterback Bo Nix can cut down on mistakes and the team’s offensive line isn’t a disaster, the receivers and running backs probably will impress, or even surprise, some people nationally.

 

The Tigers have a more talented roster than Kentucky and are playing at home. I expect Auburn to win a competitive game.

 

But Auburn’s performance at the line of scrimmage against Kentucky will say a lot about Auburn’s betting value in future games against Alabama, LSU, Tennessee and Texas A&M.

I wouldn’t recommend a bet on Kentucky at the current price. But if Auburn gets steamed up to -8.5 or more before kickoff, I like the Wildcats to cover the spread.

 

Christopher Smith is a professional handicapper who specializes in college football and basketball. He’s the founder of Sports Locksmith.