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StatTiger column: previewing Auburn football's 2020 ground game


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StatTiger column: previewing Auburn football's 2020 ground game

ByStuart Carter

 

Gus Malzahn’s success on offense has been predicated primarily on the achievement of the running game. Auburn’s offense under Malzahn is 74-14 when rushing for at least 175 yards during a game.

With all the preseason discussion of the Tigers throwing the football more often under new offensive coordinator Chad Morris, what is to become of the running game?

Two of Auburn’s three leading rushers from the running back position are not on the 2020 roster, opening the door of opportunity for the current crop of backs. DJ Williams and Shaun Shivers are the key returning runners, but Mark-Antony Richards and Tank Bigsby have garnered Malzahn’s attention

“They can create big plays,” Malzahn said of Richards, a redshirt freshman, and true freshman Bigsby. “We have seen that throughout practice. Both those guys can catch the ball out of the backfield. That has been one of Chad’s emphases, getting the ball out in the passing game to our running backs.”

Richards has been compared to former Auburn great Kerryon Johnson and Bigsby is loaded with talent.

Morris is looking for balance to prevent having to always depend on the running attack for offensive success. There remains an appreciation for the ground game as Clemson was 30-1 with Morris calling the plays and the team rushing for at least 150 yards.

When Auburn runs the football, Morris wants to have multiple options to make it work. “In this league, as physical as this league is, you better have four solid guys right now that you can count on,” the coach said.

The Tigers should have quality depth in 2020 and could be as talented at running as the 2013 combination of Tre Mason, Cameron Artis-Payne and Corey Grant. With limited practices and players not always available, Auburn’s running back rotation will not likely be established until a few games into the season.

Coach Carnell Williams has preached a “team” concept when it comes to the position, knowing the practice competition will carry over to game competition. Shivers and Williams will likely get the nod for the bulk of the carries against Kentucky, but their production level will dictate for how long.

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Shaun Shivers scores for the Tigers in the first half vs. Arkansas last season. (Photo: Jason Caldwell, Inside the Auburn Tigers/AUTigers.com, 247Sports).

What will the Auburn offense look like should the Tigers average 35 pass attempts per game? During Malzahn’s 10 seasons at Auburn as a head coach or offensive coordinator, the Tigers averaged 45.2 rush attempts per game. This could be the first time since 2012 that Auburn averaged less than 40 rush attempts per game.

Because the team is playing a conference-only schedule, it is crucial to remember the Tigers averaged 40.1 rush attempts per game last season in conference play with 31.9 pass attempts. Can Auburn become an offense that sets up the run with the passing game?

Last season the Tigers ran the football only 51.3 percent of the time during the first half and 64.8 percent during the second half. Malzahn was making the step towards being more balanced on offense, but success is defined more so in quality than quantity. Under Malzahn, Auburn has compiled a pass efficiency rating of 114.4 during Power-5 games in which it was held to under 140 yards rushing. The Tigers were 6-21 during those games.

Venturing away from Malzahn’s offensive strength in the running game will be uncharted waters under Morris. Five fewer plays devoted to the run could be worth it if the pass offense is efficient. A swing pass to a running back on first down could be more productive than an off-tackle run with the same player. Though Auburn threw the football 37.3 percent of the time on first downs during 2019 (fifth-most since 1991), the Tigers were No. 22 over the past 28 seasons in yards per attempt. Auburn increased the quantity but for less quality, despite completing 65 percent of its passes on first down.

More than 50 percent of Auburn’s rush attempts have come on first down during the past five seasons. If Auburn sacrifices the primary down to run the football, it should only be because the Tigers have elected to be more aggressive on first down. Too many conservative passes on first down will fill a stat sheet, but rarely put points on the scoreboard. Last season the Tigers ranked No. 103 nationally in producing a first down while throwing on first down.

The Options at Running Back:

The five players at running back give the Tigers four players over 200 pounds at the position. AU’s leading rusher this season will likely come from Shivers, Williams, Bigsby, or Richards while Joiner will probably be utilized more as a utility back who will be moved around the field to take advantage of his flexibility. Morris wants his running backs to be productive as receivers, which will favor the more athletic back who makes plays on the ground and as a receiver.

Though Shivers is the smallest option, his speed and playmaking skills could make him a front-runner to be the starter. Running by “committee” will likely be the trend until one or two backs rise above the others. Rotating 3-4 backs when the game is on the line could diminish the offense's continuity so establishing a 1-2 punch becomes essential. Auburn has won 72.4 percent of its games since 1999 with a running back leading the team with at least 15 carries. The winning percentage drops to 58.1 percent with less than 15 attempts.

The covid-19 outbreak has flipped sporting events upside down, which places a premium on having quality depth at all positions. Simply following medical protocol could sideline healthy players from week to week. Malzahn has emphasized having newcomers ready to play because there will be players that miss games because of the pandemic.

The NCAA has already ruled that all players will maintain their 2020 classification in 2021 so coaches across the country can play anyone they want without burning a season of eligibility. Playing ten conference games will stretch most team's limits, making Auburn fortunate to have five scholarship running backs available. Last season Kentucky allowed 170 yards rushing per game in conference play on 5.1 yards per attempt. Morris is looking to open up the offense, but cannot afford to abandon the running game against the Wildcats. During the 2019 season teams in the Southeastern Conference were 14-37 in conference play when held under 140 yards rushing, a statistic that stands out as teams across the league prepare to tee it up.

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