might not play the toughest schedule

[aubiefifty 18,231]

For once, Auburn might not have to play the toughest football schedule in the SEC

 

6-7 minutes

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AUBURN — You could almost hear the groans across the Plains as soon as the first two opponents were announced on the SEC Network just after 5 p.m. on Friday.

Had the conference followed the cross-division rotation already in place and looked to 2021 and 2022 to complete teams' 10-game, conference-only, pandemic football schedules, Alabama would have added games against Florida and Vanderbilt to a schedule that already featured Georgia and Tennessee.

But instead of having to face the best two teams in the SEC East like Auburn did last season, the Crimson Tide got Kentucky and Missouri.

MORE:What you need to know about SEC rules for COVID-19 testing, masks and quarantine

Auburn somehow getting saddled with the most difficult possible outcome almost felt inevitable. After all, Gus Malzahn's Tigers have an annual claim to "the toughest schedule in college football," given that they're the only team in the league that has to play all three of Alabama, Georgia and LSU every season, and the SEC didn't give any insight into how the extra two opponents were decided.

This year, though, the Tigers won't even have the toughest in the SEC. The two games added to their 2020 slate were at home against Tennessee and on the road at South Carolina. They still have to face the rest of the SEC West, the best team in the SEC East (Georgia) and a solid Kentucky team (that could be quarterbacked by old friend Joey Gatewood, if the NCAA grants his waiver), but even that's not as brutal a slate as they're used to.

Auburn went into the 2019 campaign set to face six teams ranked in the top 15 of the preseason Amway Coaches Poll: No. 2 Alabama, No. 3 Georgia, No. 6 LSU, No. 8 Florida, No. 11 Texas A&M and No. 13 Oregon.

This year, that number is only four: No. 3 Alabama No. 4 Georgia, No. 5 LSU and No. 13 Texas A&M, with the first two being on the road and the others at home. That's still difficult, of course — the conference hasn't announced dates yet, so there could be some rough stretches — but life always is in the SEC West, especially when Georgia is your permanent SEC East rival.

And it could have been much worse. Just ask Arkansas, which added games vs. Georgia and at Florida to an SEC East draw that already included Tennessee and Missouri. That means the Razorbacks will have to face every team that finished ahead of it in the West standings last season as well as the top three projected teams in the East, all while trying to snap a 19-game conference losing streak under first-year head coach Sam Pittman.

So how does No. 11 Auburn's 2020 schedule stack up against the rest of the teams in the SEC? ESPN's projected win total, according to its Football Power Index, can help us make that determination:

Opponents' projected win total

1. Arkansas — 59.3
2. South Carolina — 53.6
3. Mississippi State — 53.3
4. Tennessee — 52.7
5. Auburn — 52
6. Ole Miss — 51.6
7. Kentucky — 51.5
8. Vanderbilt — 51.5
9. Missouri — 50.7
10. Alabama — 49.5
11. Texas A&M — 48.7
12. LSU — 46.2
13. Florida — 45
14. Georgia — 44.7

So, as you can see, there are a few teams heading into this pandemic-affected football season that, on paper, have it more difficult than Auburn. None more so than Arkansas; but South Carolina also has to play Auburn, LSU and Texas A&M out of the East; and Tennessee added Texas A&M and Auburn to a slate that always includes Alabama, Georgia and Florida.

(Missouri received the worst draw Friday, when the SEC took a relatively easy schedule that included the East division, Arkansas and Mississippi State and added Alabama and LSU to it.)

Eight SEC teams rank in the top 30 of Bill Connelly's SP+ ratings, which are a tempo and opponent-adjusted measure of college football efficiency. Tennessee (which is one of them) and Mississippi State have to play six, and South Carolina and Arkansas have to face seven.

The two opponents the Tigers had added to their schedule Friday, Tennessee and South Carolina, rank No. 19 and 35.

Opponents' average SP+ ranking

1. Arkansas — 18.7
2. Vanderbilt — 23.8
3. Auburn — 25.9
4. South Carolina — 27.2
5. Alabama — 28.3
6. Kentucky — 30.7
7. Ole Miss — 31.8
8. Missouri — 32
9. Tennessee — 32.2
10. Mississippi State — 32.3
11. Texas A&M — 33.6
12. Florida — 36.5
13. LSU — 37
14. Georgia — 37

Auburn, which ranks No. 11 in SP+, could have gotten it easier on Friday, too. Kentucky and Missouri, Alabama's additional opponents, rank No. 28 and 35 in SP+. LSU added No. 49 Missouri and No. 101 Vanderbilt.

But Tennessee and South Carolina is still a pretty good draw for the Tigers, all things considered.

The Volunteers won the last meeting between the two teams, 30-24, at Jordan-Hare Stadium in 2018 and appear to be on the rise under third-year head coach Jeremy Pruitt. But in four games against common opponents last season, Tennessee lost to Florida by 31, Georgia by 29, Alabama by 22 and beat Mississippi State by 10. Auburn beat Mississippi State by 33, Alabama by 3 and played Florida and Georgia much closer.

The Gamecocks went 4-8 (3-5 SEC) under former Auburn defensive coordinator Will Muschamp and graduated their top two rushers and leading receiver from an offense that finished 12th in the league in scoring. Quarterback Jake Bentley transferred to Utah. They've lost eight straight meetings against the Tigers, with their last win coming way back in 1933.

Auburn will still have a difficult road ahead when — or if — the 2020 season begins Sept. 26. It always will as long as Alabama, Georgia and LSU are at the peak of their powers, which they certainly are now ranked No. 3, 4 and 5, respectively, in the initial coaches poll. And all those teams have easier schedules than Auburn does by these metrics.

But this Tigers schedule isn't as difficult as last year's, and neither Tennessee or South Carolina should provide as tough a test as No. 19 North Carolina would have had the SEC not moved to a conference-only schedule.

Malzahn is surely glad to see that.

Josh Vitale is the Auburn beat writer for the Montgomery Advertiser. You can follow him on Twitter at @JoshVitale. To reach him by email, click here.

[McLoofus 35,182]

42 minutes ago, aubiefifty said:

Opponents' projected win total

1. Arkansas — 59.3
2. South Carolina — 53.6
3. Mississippi State — 53.3
4. Tennessee — 52.7
5. Auburn — 52
6. Ole Miss — 51.6
7. Kentucky — 51.5
8. Vanderbilt — 51.5
9. Missouri — 50.7
10. Alabama — 49.5
11. Texas A&M — 48.7
12. LSU — 46.2
13. Florida — 45
14. Georgia — 44.7

Soooo, of the best 6 teams in the conference the last decade, 5 of them have the easiest schedules and the other one has one of the 5 most difficult. Seems legit. 

If I were the Little General, I'd be awfully concerned that kirby, Mullen and the Ogre have more stroke than I do now. 

[AUwent 3,831]

You know, IF we were willing to sacrifice P5 OOC games, a permanent 10 game conference schedule could work nicely. Think about it: Mizzou could move to the West, we could move to the East and UAT would keep their two most important rivalries.

[Win4AU 4,182]

I have to believe South Carolina has had it just as bad if not worse than Auburn.

[Gowebb11 9,871]

If we would start beating UGA again their schedule would suddenly be more difficult. We REALLY need to reverse recent trends vs them. 

[Win4AU 4,182]

10 minutes ago, Gowebb11 said:

If we would start beating UGA again their schedule would suddenly be more difficult. We REALLY need to reverse recent trends vs them. 

That goes for LSU too.  About to be 4 straight if we don’t turn it around this year.  It’s AUmazing when you think of the bad luck Auburn had in 15, 16, and maybe even 17 with injuries against UGA.