Iron Bowls are won up front

[aubiefifty 18,230]

Iron Bowls are won up front. A deeper look at how Alabama matches up with Auburn.

Today 5:59 AM

6-7 minutes

In the BT world, the plea for Alabama was to just run the damn ball. Passing wasn’t as consistent Before Tua.

And now in an AT reality, the Crimson Tide face perhaps its biggest defensive challenge of the season. Auburn brings an NFL-caliber defensive front to face a Mac Jones-led offense that saw a renaissance in the running game before the After Tua period began.

Najee Harris is playing as well as any running back in the conference entering an Iron Bowl that could hold the keys to Alabama’s postseason destination.

A look at advanced analytics and historical trends paint an interesting picture should this game turn into a slog in the trenches.

Big picture, Alabama is No. 57 nationally in rushing yards per game (168.9) while Auburn is No. 18 in stopping it (109.6). Context is important in that. Alabama’s 368 total carries this season is 108th among 130 FBS teams and the 5.05-yard average carry ranks 26th.

Auburn defensive coordinator Kevin Steele (previously at Alabama) set a lofty goal for stopping the run in the preseason. With All-American talents in Derrick Brown and Marlon Davidson, Steele wanted Auburn to hold opponents to 3.33 or fewer yards per carry. Through 11 games, that sits at 3.27, the 16th lowest in the country.

“I think these two guys are really hard to block,” Saban said. “I think their whole front seven is really hard to block. They’re very physical. They play tough. They play together.”

The Tigers have allowed only eight rushing touchdowns, the 11th fewest nationally, while holding opposing runners out of the end zone in six of 11 games. Alabama has 24 rushing touchdowns (37th most).

Diving deeper, FootballOutsiders.com breaks things down into specific situations.

Alabama is No. 8 nationally in standard rushing situations defined as first down, second-and-7 or fewer, third-and-4 or fewer, fourth-and-4 or fewer. Running the ball in traditional passing situations drops the Tide to No. 110.

Conversely, Auburn’s run defense is No. 12 stopping the run in both standard rushing and passing downs.

“I think that A) I thought we were making a lot of progress in how we ran the ball,” Saban said. “I thought last week we had some issues and problems in the blocking movements up front that gave us some negative plays with some stunts and movements and things like that, which we definitely need to get corrected.”

The site also calculates the stuff rate -- the percentage of the time runners are stopped at or behind the line of scrimmage. Alabama is stuffed 16.3 percent of the time (36th fewest) while Auburn’s defense stuffs the opposition 24 percent of the time (19th most).

For context, Alabama’s struggling/injured defensive front is No. 97 with a stuff rate of 16.5. Back in the national title season of 2015 with experienced future NFL linemen, Alabama was No. 9 with a 25 percent stuff rate.

The Auburn run defense played well in its most recent meeting with a playoff contender. No. 4 Georgia averaged 3.9 yards a carry, well below the 5.2-yard season average. LSU got 4.1 yards a carry while running the ball 46 times --12 more than average -- after Auburn pulled out a surprise formation designed to stop the pass.

“If they put extra guys in the box, which they do sometimes, we either have to account for them or we’ve got to throw the ball,” Saban said. “If they play split safeties, we’ve got to be good enough to be able to finish blocks and be able to make positive running plays, whether they’re direct runs or perimeter runs. They’ve got good players, that’s why they have a good defense.”

It centers around Brown and Davidson. The two have combined for 21.5 tackles for loss including 11.5 sacks. Brown is up for national defensive player of the year and Gus Malzahn on Tuesday called him a “game-changing” talent.

“You’ve got to gameplay around him, and it really starts with him,” Malzahn said. “It really starts with him. When you go against him in practice, it’s the same deal. He’s a disruptor, really raised his level -- he had a good year last year -- but I mean he’s really raised his level, playing with confidence and he’s disrupting things. He really makes people around him better.

For Alabama, Harris is running with as much confidence as any time in his three-year Alabama career. He had a career-high 146 yards on 19 carries against LSU’s No. 31 rush defense with a mix of power and elusiveness. In five SEC games in October and November, he’s averaging 6.0 yards per carry, 108 per game and nine touchdowns. That doesn’t include the 14 receptions and four additional touchdowns in that span

It’s a long way from the South Carolina game when Alabama ran it just 25 times for 76 yards. The program known for running the ball with two Heisman running backs in the past decade had the lowest rushing output that day since a 2014 game with Arkansas. None of that was an issue with Alabama’s starting quarterback throwing for the third-most yards in school history with 444 in a 47-23 win.

That, however, came in the Tua Era.

And the Auburn defense Jones and the AT offense will face Saturday held its three November opponents -- Georgia included -- to an average of 84.9 passing yards a game.

Jones has still completed 28 of 34 passes in his two starts against Arkansas and Western Carolina. He also has the same menu of elite receivers with Henry Ruggs coming back from a rib injury this week but this will be the first big-time defense he’s faced. Arkansas has the No. 118 total defense and WCU finished 3-9 in the FCS.

So, it could come down to the battle for control at the point of attack.

How Alabama’s offensive front handles Auburn’s generational talent on the defensive line figures to be crucial in the defining moment for the AT Tide.

[Randman5000 4,271]

No doubt! No doubt!!! 

[PowerOfDixieland 3,236]

I'm probably not going out on a limb believing Saban has Sark game planning to put a heavy load on Harris to take the pressure off of lil' Mac.  He's one hell of a running back, fully capable of putting that Updyke offense on his back and carrying the load.  Looking for our LB's to make a statement Saturday...our DL will just have to play like they have all year long.  They have been pretty spectacular.

[AUFAN78 4,156]

Most every game is won at the LOS. Given our oline play this is concerning. I hold out hope we can score one point more than them. War Eagle!

[aucanucktiger 1,889]

I think in the fourth quarter we'll be scratching our heads asking where this Auburn oline has been all season. 

[bigbird 60,939]

Iron Bowls are won up front

 

[KnightTiger 205]

by that stat then unfortunately that means our O-Line may be what costs us the game

[SumterAubie 3,085]

And Auburn will field the strongest AND the weakest units

[Farmer Brown 2,461]

13 hours ago, aucanucktiger said:

I think in the fourth quarter we'll be scratching our heads asking where this Auburn oline has been all season. 

Now that is a headsctatcher.

😆😆😆 

[sevenlee36 1,705]

All games are

[Sully to Beasley 643]

Unfortunately, our defense will have to overcome a bunch of blatant non penalized holding by bammer to keep them from running the ball effectively. Tall order, us against bammer and the SEC officiating mob along with their cronies back at the bammerham command center. 

[dyehardfanAU 2,117]

21 minutes ago, Sully to Beasley said:

Unfortunately, our defense will have to overcome a bunch of blatant non penalized holding by bammer to keep them from running the ball effectively. Tall order, us against bammer and the SEC officiating mob along with their cronies back at the bammerham command center. 

You're setting yourself up nicely for that moral victory post this weekend.

[Sully to Beasley 643]

35 minutes ago, dyehardfanAU said:

You're setting yourself up nicely for that moral victory post this weekend.

No moral victories here my friend. Just stating the facts.

[Zeek 16,953]

On 11/27/2019 at 8:01 AM, aubiefifty said:

Iron Bowls are won up front.

Well with our OL we’re doomed 

[AUGoo 2,703]

In other news:

Pope is Catholic.

Water is wet.

Bears poop in the woods.