letting a magical season slip away

[DAG 34,752]

4 minutes ago, BJCrawford said:

My problem (besides the fact I am old and the risk is higher I will not see another great season😬), is that I think there are more chad Morris types available than Riley and Swinney types and quite frankly, if we had Dabo the last five years, would our record be a lot better? Maybe, but would love to see his opponents record vs our opponents record.   I’m not even a huge and cheering Gus fan (don’t hate him), I just come down on the other side that Bird mentioned. 

My problem is why do you guys go through these extremes? Lol. Chad Morris was never proven to be a quality coach. Arkansas was desperate when they picked him up. He did alright at SMU and that’s it. No reason to think he was going to turn Arkansas around but wishful thinking. The problem with Auburn in my lifetime is they went after mediocre coaches previous to auburn. 

[BJCrawford 1,568]

2 minutes ago, DAG said:

My problem is why do you guys go through these extremes? Lol. Chad Morris was never proven to be a quality coach. Arkansas was desperate when they picked him up. He did alright at SMU and that’s it. No reason to think he was going to turn Arkansas around but wishful thinking. The problem with Auburn in my lifetime is they went after mediocre coaches previous to auburn. 

Can’t disagree with the going after mediocre coaches....valid point 

[AUFriction 1,179]

34 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

Except when I pushed back against your data in other threads, you conveniently didn't reply because the facts didn't suit you.  So let me repeat this about one of your biggest points:

Gus's win percentage is inflated by poor competition when compared to other coaches at AU historically.

He gets the benefit of 3 cupcake games per year.  Dye never had that.  Neither did Jordan.  Some years Tuberville didn't either.  Trying to compare 8-9 wins now vs 8-9 wins in the 70s or 80s is a fool's errand.  It wasn't until the mid 1970s that college football went to an 11 game schedule.

Here's some great examples of my point.

1) The 1972 Amazins schedule had one gimme game out of 10.  It was vs Chattanooga.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/auburn/1972-schedule.html

2) The 1983 team played 4 top 10 opponents in the regular season, two of which were non-conference games.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/auburn/1983-schedule.html

We can go on, but the point is clear.  There weren't games against Kent State, Samford, and Tulane on the schedule to inflate the record.

Since that amazing run in 2013, which was 6 years ago now, Gus is just 30-26 against Power 5 competition.  That's regression.

Yeah. I ignored it because it is so clearly wrong. The SEC West has won 7 out of the last 13 NCs. The SEC has won 9 of the last 13. Our two biggest rivals played each other for one two years ago. This last decade and a half has been the peak of SEC dominance. There may have been no cupcakes back then, but there were also less dominant teams and less games overall for teams to get beat up. At best, it's a wash.

[abw0004 10,303]

10 minutes ago, DAG said:

My problem is why do you guys go through these extremes? Lol. Chad Morris was never proven to be a quality coach. Arkansas was desperate when they picked him up. He did alright at SMU and that’s it. No reason to think he was going to turn Arkansas around but wishful thinking. The problem with Auburn in my lifetime is they went after mediocre coaches previous to auburn. 

Well, what about Jimbo Fisher at A&M?  He is being paid a lot of money to perform worse than us.  So far, he is 0-2 against Auburn at A&M.

[nixtosanders94 2,180]

1 minute ago, abw0004 said:

Well, what about Jimbo Fisher at A&M?  He is being paid a lot of money to perform worse than us.  So far, he is 0-2 against Auburn at A&M.

This isn’t really a statement on the coach debate one way or the other but I feel like Jimbo has always been overrated. Take away one great year by Famous Jamies and our blowing a 21-3 lead and he has no national title.  Just my two cents on ol Jimbo. 

[DAG 34,752]

1 minute ago, abw0004 said:

Well, what about Jimbo Fisher at A&M?  He is being paid a lot of money to perform worse than us.  So far, he is 0-2 against Auburn at A&M.

What about him? 

[bigbird 60,939]

17 minutes ago, DAG said:

The problem with Auburn in my lifetime is they went after mediocre coaches previous to auburn. 

Exactly. We've never brought in a "winner" that has a proven track record or even one with proven pedigree.

[bigbird 60,939]

4 minutes ago, DAG said:

What about him? 

Hard to tell much after 2 years. Ask me about him after 7 years there.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

10 minutes ago, AUFriction said:

Yeah. I ignored it because it is so clearly wrong. The SEC West has won 7 out of the last 13 NCs. The SEC has won 9 of the last 13. Our two biggest rivals played each other for one two years ago. This last decade and a half has been the peak of SEC dominance. There may have been no cupcakes back then, but there were also less dominant teams and less games overall for teams to get beat up. At best, it's a wash.

Oh, so that yearly game against Bama (who has won 5 of those titles you speak of) should count for more?  Got it.

There has been exactly one consistently dominant team during Gus's run: Bama.

UGA just got to that point two years ago.  This is the first time LSU has been in the national conversation since Gus has been HC.

And here's the deal.  Let's throw out that 2-5 record against Bama since they are on a historic run of greatness.  Let's also throw out that 6-1 record against Arkansas since they are on a historic run of ineptitude for their program.  We have to play both teams every year so I think that's a fair comparison.

It leaves you at 22-20 since the end of 2013 against P5 competition.  That's not good enough.

[DAG 34,752]

1 minute ago, bigbird said:

Hard to tell much after 2 years. Ask me about him after 7 years there.

Even so , that is one dude. So one dude being 1-2 against Gus means we should stick with Gus and not look?

Jeremy Pruitt is also 1-0 against Gus. Not making nearly as much money, so I guess that means we should definitely look for someone who was a coordinator before?

I didn’t get why he was used as an example for my post in regards to auburn. People know how I feel about Jimbo. 

[McLoofus 35,182]

24 minutes ago, DAG said:

The problem with Auburn in my lifetime is they went after mediocre coaches previous to auburn. 

 

6 minutes ago, bigbird said:

Exactly. We've never brought in a "winner" that has a proven track record or even one with proven pedigree.

And yet they've all tasted big time success. Imagine if we ever brought in somebody with even just a pretty good resume. 

Of the long list of names that gets passed around and added to, at least half a dozen of them are far more qualified than Gus, Gene, Terry or Pat were. 

[abw0004 10,303]

8 minutes ago, DAG said:

What about him? 

You stated Chad Morris was on one side of the extremes since he wasn't tenured, so I brought up Fisher as someone who would fit the billing you were looking into.

[bigbird 60,939]

Just now, DAG said:

Even so , that is one dude. So one dude being 1-2 against Gus means we should stick with Gus and not look?

Jeremy Pruitt is also 1-0 against Gus. Not making nearly as much money, so I guess that means we should definitely look for someone who was a coordinator before?

I didn’t get why he was used as an example for my post in regards to auburn. People know how I feel about Jimbo. 

Grasping at hyperbolic straws.

[Mikey 16,781]

23 minutes ago, DAG said:

My problem is why do you guys go through these extremes? Lol. Chad Morris was never proven to be a quality coach. Arkansas was desperate when they picked him up. He did alright at SMU and that’s it. No reason to think he was going to turn Arkansas around but wishful thinking. The problem with Auburn in my lifetime is they went after mediocre coaches previous to auburn. 

It was said on these very boards that Chad Morris would kill it at Arky, he has all those recruiting connections in Texas, you know. Maybe he just needs more time there...

[DAG 34,752]

Just now, abw0004 said:

You stated Chad Morris was on one side of the extremes since he wasn't tenured, so I brought up Fisher as someone who would fit the billing you were looking into.

Both are extremes as to why we shouldn’t look for another coach. We can make a counter argument all day towards that. It doesn’t change anything the fact that we consistently are fielding the same results .

[DAG 34,752]

Just now, Mikey said:

It was said on these very boards that Chad Morris would kill it at Arky, he has all those recruiting connections in Texas, you know. Maybe he just needs more time there...

Not by me lol Arkansas was desperate because they wanted Gus and he spurned them. Many of their fans wanted Norvell but he has something behind the scenes and here lies Chad...

[abw0004 10,303]

Just now, DAG said:

Both are extremes as to why we shouldn’t look for another coach. We can make a counter argument all day towards that. It doesn’t change anything the fact that we consistently are fielding the same results .

Maybe I misread what you said then.  I thought you meant the coaches themselves were extremes.  I just used Fisher as an example that coaches we think would be home-run hires still may not be that.

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

15 minutes ago, abw0004 said:

Well, what about Jimbo Fisher at A&M?  He is being paid a lot of money to perform worse than us.  So far, he is 0-2 against Auburn at A&M.

Jimbo was 23-17 at FSU against P5 competition when his QB wasn't named Jameis Winston.  He was never a great coach.  He had a great player (similar to Chizik).

[bigbird 60,939]

3 minutes ago, Mikey said:

It was said on these very boards that Chad Morris would kill it at Arky, he has all those recruiting connections in Texas, you know. Maybe he just needs more time there...

That was me.

I still think he could once he turns over the roster. It's hard to compete in a spread O with Bilema's players. He may not be given the chance though. I don't mind being wrong about him at Arkansas.

[DAG 34,752]

3 minutes ago, abw0004 said:

Maybe I misread what you said then.  I thought you meant the coaches themselves were extremes.  I just used Fisher as an example that coaches we think would be home-run hires still may not be that.

Of course! There is always that risks. Even with a homerun hire. Although I think Jimbo is far from a homerun hire. That’s just me. 

[McLoofus 35,182]

11 minutes ago, DAG said:

Of course! There is always that risks. Even with a homerun hire. Although I think Jimbo is far from a homerun hire. That’s just me. 

I thought he was for TAMU but I was wrong. But- and this isn't directed at you, DAG- I guarantee you there's nobody in College Station wishing they'd held onto Sumlin.

And that's the point. Maybe we get the next hire right, maybe we don't. But who the hell thinks 8 wins a year is worth not trying? Rhetorical question, of course. 

[DAG 34,752]

1 minute ago, McLoofus said:

I thought he was for TAMU but I was wrong. But- and this isn't directed at you, DAG- I guarantee you there's nobody in College Station wishing they'd held onto Sumlin.

And that's the point. Maybe we get the next hire right, maybe we don't. But who the hell thinks 8 wins a year is worth not trying? Rhetorical question, of course. 

Yep. Sumlin had to go big time point blank period. 

[AUFriction 1,179]

2 hours ago, bigbird said:

The fact is there are two scenarios that can play out. 1. Keep Gus 2. Fire Gus

The first option has a known or at least very predictable outcome. A clean and stable  program, good recruiting, stale offenses, and most likely 4-5 yearly losses.

The second option involve much more risk. We don't know if his replacement will or won't be an upgrade. We don't know if the recruiting will continue at it's historic rate, we don't know if we will have the same caliber players, we don't know if it will in end scandal. However, we also don't know if they will be the next Dabo or Riley either. We equally have the same opportunity to take the next step as we do to take a step back.

The divide amongst fans and posters on here seems to lie along those lines. Some are willing and some are not willing to commit to a risk.

I prefer the chance of future success when weighed against a know mediocre commodity. For me, I'm optimistic, I choose to believe that the risk is worth it and it will be beneficial.

 

Finally something we (mostly) see eye to eye on. It is largely about risk. 

For me, I'm still stuck on a one thing in your post that I keep seeing others reference despite it not being supported by data though. This is my hang-up...my frustration... the thing that is making me so adamant about arguing with you all...whatever you want to call it. I'm going to ask that you please read this all the way through if you choose to reply to it as it seems like a lot of people are seeing my posts but paying little attention to the numbers I include in them. People keep using the word mediocre. But that just simply isn't true.  If you want to compare us to other teams, we have the 4th most wins (BARELY edged out by LSU) in the SEC over Malzahn's tenure. The 4th most wins! In the best conference in college football! One of the teams in front of us is UGA, who benefits a lot from playing in the SEC east. We are also the only team other than Bama to represent the SECW in the SEC Championship over Gus's tenure. (The last other team was LSU in 2011.) It is true that we haven't been THE best team, but there's absolutely nothing mediocre about how we are performing in the SEC or compared to other teams around the country. If you want to compare us to an internal standard for mediocrity, Gus is exceeding that standard too. The average games-won percentage of all of the Auburn coaches in history is about 51%. If you start with Jordan and only consider coaches since then, it is about 63%. If you only fixate on coaches with winning records, it is about 64%. If you only focus on coaches that "most" current fans respect (this includes Donnahue, Dye,Tubberville, and Jordan), it is about 70%. If you only include recent coaches in the modern era of football, it is 68%. Gus has won more than 69% of his games. Regardless of how you slice it, Gus's records are objectively not bad. Which brings me back to the point that this "standard" you all have set is completely subjective, grounded in emotions rather than reason. You all (the anti-Gus group) are judging success not based on what is reasonable, but instead based on what you are seeing Bama do in conference and Ohio State/Oklahoma/Clemson do in easy peasy fluff conferences. You all want to throw out a coach that is good-but-not-great for the extremely unlikely chance that we pick up coach that wins more than 3 quarters of our games (more than 9 a year), which would be the best coach in Auburn history because that percentage has never been achieved before over a coach's tenure (aside from 2 early coaches with <5 games). I just don't buy that the next hire is going to be the best coach in Auburn history, especially not since we have Saban next door and play a lot of great teams every single year in addition to bama. It is much more likely that we hire someone with Malzahn's level of success or worse. So, why throw him out and risk it being worse over the extremely low-probability chance that we hire the best coach in Auburn history? If someone can provide a concrete, theoretically and/or statistically sound answer to this question, I'd back off. But, to date, all I'm seeing is people ticked off because our current coach isn't achieving at a level that would make him the best coach in program history. 

I'll hang up and listen...

 

[McLoofus 35,182]

2 minutes ago, DAG said:

Yep. Sumlin had to go big time point blank period. 

Agreed. And his winning percentage was about the same as Gus's. (Again, not a comment directed at you.)

[leglessdan 1,934]

The record or the win total rankings don't mean s*** when the LOSSES are to the teams that you have to get through to set up for playoff contention. You can point out all the fancy numbers you want. Bottom line is an extremely high percentage of the losses come to the teams we have to beat to move forward...period. Then add in games like Tennessee last year and Miss St the year prior and it paints a pretty obvious picture of a guy in over his head. Period. Wde