letting a magical season slip away

[AUFriction 1,179]

34 minutes ago, nixtosanders94 said:

 

I suggest reading any of the data driven posts I’ve posted on this topic dealing with this issue. 8-9 win seasons are average for the coaches that most Auburn fans would call “good,” and above average for Auburn through history. We’re actually tied for 3rd (with LSU) in the SEC for most win/season during Gus’s tenure.  So, yes, 8-9 wins a season is acceptable. I’m not repeating everything I’ve already posted considering that you are in the lost cause anti-Gus group. If you really want to attack my points, go read those posts and reply to them.

[AUFriction 1,179]

17 minutes ago, lurtz said:

 

I’m not a Gus supporter. I just also don’t think he’s done badly enough to be fired. 

[auburnphan 6,050]

2 minutes ago, AUFriction said:

I suggest reading any of the data driven posts I’ve posted on this topic dealing with this issue. 8-9 win seasons are average for the coaches that most Auburn fans would call “good,” and above average for Auburn through history. We’re actually tied for 3rd (with LSU) in the SEC for most win/season during Gus’s tenure.  So, yes, 8-9 wins a season is acceptable. I’m not repeating everything I’ve already posted considering that you are in the lost cause anti-Gus group. If you really want to attack my points, go read those posts and reply to them.

Thank you!   

[nixtosanders94 2,180]

2 minutes ago, AUFriction said:

I suggest reading any of the data driven posts I’ve posted on this topic dealing with this issue. 8-9 win seasons are average for the coaches that most Auburn fans would call “good,” and above average for Auburn through history. We’re actually tied for 3rd (with LSU) in the SEC for most win/season during Gus’s tenure.  So, yes, 8-9 wins a season is acceptable. I’m not repeating everything I’ve already posted considering that you are in the lost cause anti-Gus group. If you really want to attack my points, go read those posts and reply to them.

I was just making a joke man. I’ve already figured out I have to tone down my posts so take it easy slim. 

[nixtosanders94 2,180]

22 minutes ago, AU-24 said:

FSU is going after Stoops.

Mark or Bob?

[AUFriction 1,179]

48 minutes ago, bigbird said:

1. Proven better offenses

2. Better recruiter, better coaching experience, and better team right now

3. Jeff Scott is very similar to Swinney and has been a multiple championship winning OC. 

4. Proven defensive mind at Wisconsin and LSU. One of the best at game planning, details, and adjustments.

 

All 4 have substantially better pedigree and coaching experience

 

Your argument against is weak and humorous

Your arguments are bound by conjecture and lack substance. 

1. Gus’s offense was very successful a few years ago. Now it hasn’t been as successful. The same thing could happen to Heupel. Also, Heupel’s team has no defense. We could just go back to looking like we did with Ellis Johnson.

2. How can you say better team right now? We beat them head to head, and they play in the worst of the power 5 conferences. No evidence that they are a better team than us or that they’d have a better record with our schedule.

3. Again... Chad Morris. People said the same things about him a few years ago. 

4.Pruitt was a proven defensive mind when UT hired him. Will Muschamp was a proven defensive mind when he was hired into both of his jobs. Plenty of coaches move from coordinator to coach and fail. And, if you are implying that Gus is a failure, you’d have to add him to the list as well. He was considered a proven coordinator when we hired him.

[PUB78 1,413]

10 hours ago, nixtosanders94 said:

I have no idea what everyone is so upset about? Look at these standings...we are right where Auburn belongs...right where mikey and the gang believe we should be...behind bama and lsu...yep, right where Auburn belongs...why some of y’all expect more than that is beyond me? Even if we lose to uga and bama...again...we will go to a nice semi- New Years Bowl game and have a shot at 9-4...well, hopefully Memphis or Purdue will be our opponent...

Better hope our bowl game is in December. Gus is 0-4 in January.

[bigbird 60,939]

42 minutes ago, AUFriction said:

Your arguments are bound by conjecture and lack substance. 

1. Gus’s offense was very successful a few years ago. Now it hasn’t been as successful. The same thing could happen to Heupel. Also, Heupel’s team has no defense. We could just go back to looking like we did with Ellis Johnson.

2. How can you say better team right now? We beat them head to head, and they play in the worst of the power 5 conferences. No evidence that they are a better team than us or that they’d have a better record with our schedule.

3. Again... Chad Morris. People said the same things about him a few years ago. 

4.Pruitt was a proven defensive mind when UT hired him. Will Muschamp was a proven defensive mind when he was hired into both of his jobs. Plenty of coaches move from coordinator to coach and fail. And, if you are implying that Gus is a failure, you’d have to add him to the list as well. He was considered a proven coordinator when we hired him.

1. You're right very successful...years ago. About 5 to be exact. And in your own words, "The coaches that are not progressing are the ones refusing to do those things. " So we agree, Gus is not progressing. As far as the no defense defense. That's just stupid when discussing Gus. How long before he realized we needed one? And he was gifted Steele. It wasn't Gus that brought Steele in. Fact.

2. Because right now they would wax the field with us. 8 weeks ago we were better. We have not progressed and in many areas have regressed. Oregon has not. They are clearly the better team right now.

3. Jeff Scott has had more success than Chad has. Both are upgrades over Gus. Both have taken Gus' concepts and evolved them. Winning cultures and programs breed winning coaches. Who did Gus learn from? Nutt? Chizik?

4. You're right, those were successful coordinators that haven't made it as HC. There are a lot of them. There are also a ton of them that have. The argument that he can't because because other haven't is not a good one because the converse is also equally true.

[johnnyAU 3,745]

Oregon would beat our eyes out right now. 

[bigbird 60,939]

4 minutes ago, johnnyAU said:

Oregon would beat our eyes out right now. 

We wouldn't score. 

[AUFriction 1,179]

56 minutes ago, bigbird said:

1. You're right very successful...years ago. About 5 to be exact. And in your own words, "The coaches that are not progressing are the ones refusing to do those things. " So we agree, Gus is not progressing. As far as the no defense defense. That's just stupid when discussing Gus. How long before he realized we needed one? And he was gifted Steele. It wasn't Gus that brought Steele in. Fact.

2. Because right now they would wax the field with us. 8 weeks ago we were better. We have not progressed and in many areas have regressed. Oregon has not. They are clearly the better team right now.

3. Jeff Scott has had more success than Chad has. Both are upgrades over Gus. Both have taken Gus' concepts and evolved them. Winning cultures and programs breed winning coaches. Who did Gus learn from?

4. You're right, those were successful coordinators that haven't made it as HC. There are a lot of them. There are also a ton of them that have. The argument that he can't because because other haven't is not a good one because the converse is also equally true.

1. Yes, I can concede that point to an extent. I’ve said multiple times that I’m not in love with Gus. Rather, I just don’t think he’s as bad as you all are making him out to be, and he certainly hasn’t done bad enough to make a risky hire So, a bit of a misconstrual here.

The offense has been less successful this year for sure. A lot of that is on us having a freshman at QB. The offense was very good in 2010, 2013, 2014, and 2017. Problems in 2015 and 2016 were failure to adapt, which is why Gus brought in an air raid guy. Our passing tree is very different than it was in 2016, and honestly looks a bit more diverse than it even was last year (never saw slants regularly before this year, and Ryan Davis was the only guy ever running dig routes). So I do think Gus was slow to adapt in the past, but I don’t see that as the problem this year.

The point I was trying to make is that Gus was also once seen as an innovative, exceptional coordinator. But, at times in his career, he’s gone a little stagnant. I think it happens to a lot of offensive guys, and I think there’s certainly the risk of it happening with Heupel. Just because his offense is moving now doesn’t mean it will always be that productive. 

Given the poor defense they seem to have at UCF, there’s a decent chance that Heupel will cause the same frustrations that people have with Gus.

2. We haven’t played Oregon again, and don’t have any opponents in common. So this is hard to judge. The only data point suggests we’re the better team. Anything beyond that is straight conjecture. Not sure how much you’ve watched Oregon, but I don’t think they look that much better. They beat Washington State (a team that lost to UCLA) by two points, and the PAC 12 as a whole is pretty weak this year. I don’t really buy the argument that they are clearly better than us now.

3. Has Scott really been an improvement, or is the ACC just weaker? We put up more points against TAMU on the road than they did at home.

I also don’t buy your comment on Cultures. First of all, they (Morris and Scott) came from the same culture. It was the same program with the same coach at the helm, and even the same DC. Cultural change is usually very slow unless you have some massive event that shifts everything.

Also, if you can find it, go read “The people make the place” by Ben Schneider, one of the leading experts on culture. Culture is more set by the people at the bottom than the top.  When someone is brought in at the top that is a misfit with the existing culture, they rarely last unless the culture is what is referrred to as “weak.”

I don’t necessarily buy into the idea that culture has a huge impact on development. Most organizational science research shows a relatively weak relationship between hierarchical culture elements and individual level performance. If culture played a role in the development of either, it was probably a small influence, and it would have affected them both pretty similarly.

4. I’m not saying he would for sure be a failure. I’m saying that it is kind of a toss up. Aranda’s been interviewed several times for head coaching jobs, and has never been selected. It could be that he was just a bad fit. It could be that he just hasn’t gotten an offer enticing enough to move on. Could also be that he is like some of the coordinators I mentioned. Either way, from what we as fans know, hiring him could be a risk. There’s no evidence that he’s capable of outperforming Malzahn as a head coach. Given what is know about Aranda’s knowledge, skills, abilities, etc. as a head coach, we could end up right there with UT, Arkansas, and some of the other programs that replaced adequate coaches with duds. 

[auburnphan 6,050]

14 hours ago, bigbird said:

Apparently

.....and apparently it gets you a stalker who hates on all your posts, lol.   @AUFriction I really hope that it made you feel better to look me up and negative my posts, it gave me a great big laugh . No need for name calling WDE.

you are welcome to follow me and become a Phan or feel free to block me, peace out Girl Scout. 🥰

[DAG 34,752]

9 hours ago, AUFriction said:

1. Yes, I can concede that point to an extent. I’ve said multiple times that I’m not in love with Gus. Rather, I just don’t think he’s as bad as you all are making him out to be, and he certainly hasn’t done bad enough to make a risky hire So, a bit of a misconstrual here.

The offense has been less successful this year for sure. A lot of that is on us having a freshman at QB. The offense was very good in 2010, 2013, 2014, and 2017. Problems in 2015 and 2016 were failure to adapt, which is why Gus brought in an air raid guy. Our passing tree is very different than it was in 2016, and honestly looks a bit more diverse than it even was last year (never saw slants regularly before this year, and Ryan Davis was the only guy ever running dig routes). So I do think Gus was slow to adapt in the past, but I don’t see that as the problem this year.

The point I was trying to make is that Gus was also once seen as an innovative, exceptional coordinator. But, at times in his career, he’s gone a little stagnant. I think it happens to a lot of offensive guys, and I think there’s certainly the risk of it happening with Heupel. Just because his offense is moving now doesn’t mean it will always be that productive. 

Given the poor defense they seem to have at UCF, there’s a decent chance that Heupel will cause the same frustrations that people have with Gus.

2. We haven’t played Oregon again, and don’t have any opponents in common. So this is hard to judge. The only data point suggests we’re the better team. Anything beyond that is straight conjecture. Not sure how much you’ve watched Oregon, but I don’t think they look that much better. They beat Washington State (a team that lost to UCLA) by two points, and the PAC 12 as a whole is pretty weak this year. I don’t really buy the argument that they are clearly better than us now.

3. Has Scott really been an improvement, or is the ACC just weaker? We put up more points against TAMU on the road than they did at home.

I also don’t buy your comment on Cultures. First of all, they (Morris and Scott) came from the same culture. It was the same program with the same coach at the helm, and even the same DC. Cultural change is usually very slow unless you have some massive event that shifts everything.

Also, if you can find it, go read “The people make the place” by Ben Schneider, one of the leading experts on culture. Culture is more set by the people at the bottom than the top.  When someone is brought in at the top that is a misfit with the existing culture, they rarely last unless the culture is what is referrred to as “weak.”

I don’t necessarily buy into the idea that culture has a huge impact on development. Most organizational science research shows a relatively weak relationship between hierarchical culture elements and individual level performance. If culture played a role in the development of either, it was probably a small influence, and it would have affected them both pretty similarly.

4. I’m not saying he would for sure be a failure. I’m saying that it is kind of a toss up. Aranda’s been interviewed several times for head coaching jobs, and has never been selected. It could be that he was just a bad fit. It could be that he just hasn’t gotten an offer enticing enough to move on. Could also be that he is like some of the coordinators I mentioned. Either way, from what we as fans know, hiring him could be a risk. There’s no evidence that he’s capable of outperforming Malzahn as a head coach. Given what is know about Aranda’s knowledge, skills, abilities, etc. as a head coach, we could end up right there with UT, Arkansas, and some of the other programs that replaced adequate coaches with duds. 

What has been your point this whole thread? I am honestly wondering since you been on the defensive for Malzahn this whole time? 
 

the fact is Dabo, Saban , etc isn’t coming here, so the names thrown out there are mere potential realistic coaching candidates for posters. You don’t think any of these candidates suffice. Cool. We get it. I don’t get clogging the threads with the same repeated verbiage. 

[AUFriction 1,179]

2 hours ago, DAG said:

What has been your point this whole thread? I am honestly wondering since you been on the defensive for Malzahn this whole time? 
 

the fact is Dabo, Saban , etc isn’t coming here, so the names thrown out there are mere potential realistic coaching candidates for posters. You don’t think any of these candidates suffice. Cool. We get it. I don’t get clogging the threads with the same repeated verbiage. 

First all, I’m hardly recycling points. I’ve had new data and new research presented in almost every post I’ve put up. I also think there are three different macro points I’ve raised in this particular thread. Although, they are clearly related, which is to be expected given that this is a topical thread...

1. Expectations by a faction within our fan base are insanely high. People are ignoring data that should be guiding our expectations (how we’ve done traditionally and how teams around us are doing), and are instead setting their expectations emotionally at win averages that are just never going to happen. Because if that, ...

2. Gus, who has underperformed a little over the course of his tenure, is getting way more criticism than he should be getting. A 7-2 coach with losses to 2 top 10 teams on the road should not be getting attacked like he’s getting. He certainly isn’t performing low enough to get fired. That’s especially true when you consider the fact that LSU was stolen from us by the refs with all of the non-holding calls. It’s not accepting mediocrity. It’s accepting good-but-not-great performance. (Why we should accept this is point 3.)

3. This is the hardest point, because it relies on probability theories and regression to the mean. It is insane to think we are going to dump Gus and absolutely find an upgrade. There are few coaches that have the ability to lead a team to the playoffs year after year. It is even harder in the SEC West. It is especially hard for Auburn who also plays UGA every year. Gus’s win percentage is on par with a lot of the better coaches in Auburn history, and probability suggests that we aren’t going to break that trend. It’s even less likely we’ll break it now, with Bama achieving what they are achieving. Maybe, it could be broken post Saban, but it’s unlikely to happen now. If we dump Gus, statistically, there’s a slim chance we find someone substantially better that’s going to get Auburn to 10-11 wins a year or more. There’s about an equivalent chance that we hire a complete bust that destroys our program. Most likely, we’d end up with a coach about as good (or slightly more likely just a little worse) than Gus. So, it makes no sense to call for Gus’s head because we probably aren’t going to replace him with anyone better. If we oust Gus, there better be multiple coaches available that are CLEARLY better. Every name I’ve seen (aside from Bob Stoops who isn’t coming here) is not a clear cut upgrade, and would likely have us at the same level of success as Gus or worse. It’s not fear. It’s not opinion. It’s probability. 

[DAG 34,752]

3 minutes ago, AUFriction said:

First all, I’m hardly recycling points. I’ve had new data and new research presented in almost every post I’ve put up. I also think there are three different macro points I’ve raised in this particular thread. Although, they are clearly related, which is to be expected given that this is a topical thread...

1. Expectations by a faction within our fan base are insanely high. People are ignoring data that should be guiding our expectations (how we’ve done traditionally and how teams around us are doing), and are instead setting their expectations emotionally at win averages that are just never going to happen. Because if that, ...

2. Gus, who has underperformed a little over the course of his tenure, is getting way more criticism than he should be getting. A 7-2 coach with losses to 2 top 10 teams on the road should not be getting attacked like he’s getting. He certainly isn’t performing low enough to get fired. That’s especially true when you consider the fact that LSU was stolen from us by the refs with all of the non-holding calls. It’s not accepting mediocrity. It’s accepting good-but-not-great performance. (Why we should accept this is point 3.)

3. This is the hardest point, because it relies on probability theories and regression to the mean. It is insane to think we are going to dump Gus and absolutely find an upgrade. There are few coaches that have the ability to lead a team to the playoffs year after year. It is even harder in the SEC West. It is especially hard for Auburn who also plays UGA every year. Gus’s win percentage is on par with a lot of the better coaches in Auburn history, and probability suggests that we aren’t going to break that trend. It’s even less likely we’ll break it now, with Bama achieving what they are achieving.  If we dump Gus, statistically, there’s a slim chance we find someone substantially better. There’s about an equivalent chance that we hire a complete bust that destroys our program. Most likely, we’d end up with a coach about as good (or slightly more likely just a little worse) than Gus. So, it makes no sense to call for Gus’s head because we probably aren’t going to replace him with anyone better. If we oust Gus, there better be multiple coaches available that are CLEARLY better. Every name I’ve seen (aside from Bob Stoops who isn’t coming here) is not a clear cut upgrade, and would likely have us at the same level of success as Gus or worse. It’s not fear. It’s not opinion. It’s probability. 

The content of your posts have legitimately been said in several other threads. Just because you are presenting  it differently doesn’t mean the content has changed.  You go on tangents and say a lot of volume words that get lost in translation. Pretty much your last sentence is the conclusion to several of your formal posts. We get it. 

[AUFriction 1,179]

7 minutes ago, DAG said:

The content of your posts have legitimately been said in several other threads. Just because you are presenting  it differently doesn’t mean the content has changed.  You go on tangents and say a lot of volume words that get lost in translation. Pretty much your last sentence is the conclusion to several of your formal posts. We get it. 

The theme of almost all posters is similar. We’re so divided right now that all the posts are pretty much just rationales for keeping or dumping Gus. So critiquing me for all of my posts have the same theme is quite frankly pointless, immature, and clearly just a half-hearted attempt to attack me.

At least I’ve been able to continually bring in new facts and figures to support my points. Most of the people I’ve been debating are either reusing the same data, or they are saying things purely grounded in conjecture. Either way, I apparently need to be posting more because my content rich, data driven, and fact driven posts are being ignored while the emotion guided and opinion filled Gus bashing posts are being praised and celebrated. 

[DAG 34,752]

5 minutes ago, AUFriction said:

The theme of almost all posters is similar. We’re so divided right now that all the posts are pretty much just rationales for keeping or dumping Gus. So critiquing me for all of my posts have the same theme is quite frankly pointless, immature, and clearly just a half-hearted attempt to attack me.

At least I’ve been able to continually bring in new facts and figures to support my points. Most of the people I’ve been debating are either reusing the same data, or they are saying things purely grounded in conjecture. Either way, I apparently need to be posting more because my content rich, data driven, and fact driven posts are being ignored while the emotion guided and opinion filled Gus bashing posts are being praised and celebrated. 

You should post less like this because you are slowly losing credibility daily .

[AU-24 3,130]

13 hours ago, nixtosanders94 said:

Mark or Bob?

Bob is number one on their list, Mark is number three or four.

From a (I will call him FSU) lawyer friend of mine. 

[bigbird 60,939]

The fact is there are two scenarios that can play out. 1. Keep Gus 2. Fire Gus

The first option has a known or at least very predictable outcome. A clean and stable  program, good recruiting, stale offenses, and most likely 4-5 yearly losses.

The second option involve much more risk. We don't know if his replacement will or won't be an upgrade. We don't know if the recruiting will continue at it's historic rate, we don't know if we will have the same caliber players, we don't know if it will in end scandal. However, we also don't know if they will be the next Dabo or Riley either. We equally have the same opportunity to take the next step as we do to take a step back.

The divide amongst fans and posters on here seems to lie along those lines. Some are willing and some are not willing to commit to a risk.

I prefer the chance of future success when weighed against a know mediocre commodity. For me, I'm optimistic, I choose to believe that the risk is worth it and it will be beneficial.

 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

27 minutes ago, AUFriction said:

The theme of almost all posters is similar. We’re so divided right now that all the posts are pretty much just rationales for keeping or dumping Gus. So critiquing me for all of my posts have the same theme is quite frankly pointless, immature, and clearly just a half-hearted attempt to attack me.

At least I’ve been able to continually bring in new facts and figures to support my points. Most of the people I’ve been debating are either reusing the same data, or they are saying things purely grounded in conjecture. Either way, I apparently need to be posting more because my content rich, data driven, and fact driven posts are being ignored while the emotion guided and opinion filled Gus bashing posts are being praised and celebrated. 

Except when I pushed back against your data in other threads, you conveniently didn't reply because the facts didn't suit you.  So let me repeat this about one of your biggest points:

Gus's win percentage is inflated by poor competition when compared to other coaches at AU historically.

He gets the benefit of 3 cupcake games per year.  Dye never had that.  Neither did Jordan.  Some years Tuberville didn't either.  Trying to compare 8-9 wins now vs 8-9 wins in the 70s or 80s is a fool's errand.  It wasn't until the mid 1970s that college football went to an 11 game schedule.

Here's some great examples of my point.

1) The 1972 Amazins schedule had one gimme game out of 10.  It was vs Chattanooga.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/auburn/1972-schedule.html

2) The 1983 team played 4 top 10 opponents in the regular season, two of which were non-conference games.

https://www.sports-reference.com/cfb/schools/auburn/1983-schedule.html

We can go on, but the point is clear.  There weren't games against Kent State, Samford, and Tulane on the schedule to inflate the record.

Since that amazing run in 2013, which was 6 years ago now, Gus is just 30-26 against Power 5 competition.  That's regression.

[kevon67 2,368]

18 hours ago, bigbird said:

Driving a model T is an option but I sure like the F-150

I prefer the F-350.

[kevon67 2,368]

16 minutes ago, bigbird said:

The fact is there are two scenarios that can play out. 1. Keep Gus 2. Fire Gus

The first option has a known or at least very predictable outcome. A clean and stable  program, good recruiting, stale offenses, and most likely 4-5 yearly losses.

The second option involve much more risk. We don't know if his replacement will or won't be an upgrade. We don't know if the recruiting will continue at it's historic rate, we don't know if we will have the same caliber players, we don't know if it will in end scandal. However, we also don't know if they will be the next Dabo or Riley either. We equally have the same opportunity to take the next step as we do to take a step back.

The divide amongst fans and posters on here seems to lie along those lines. Some are willing and some are not willing to commit to a risk.

I prefer the chance of future success when weighed against a know mediocre commodity. For me, I'm optimistic, I choose to believe that the risk is worth it and it will be beneficial.

 

Well put........how many years ago was it rival coaches lobbyed to slow the game down and what has CGM done to adjust? 

[Brad_ATX 13,654]

Just now, kevon67 said:

Well put........how many years ago was it rival coaches lobbyed to slow the game down and what has CGM done to adjust? 

He slowed down even more.

[bigbird 60,939]

2 minutes ago, Brad_ATX said:

He slowed down even more.

They'll never see it coming

[BJCrawford 1,568]

My problem (besides the fact I am old and the risk is higher I will not see another great season😬), is that I think there are more chad Morris types available than Riley and Swinney types and quite frankly, if we had Dabo the last five years, would our record be a lot better? Maybe, but would love to see his opponents record vs our opponents record.   I’m not even a huge and cheering Gus fan (don’t hate him), I just come down on the other side that Bird mentioned.