confrontation with reality

[AUFAN78 4,130]

On 9/2/2019 at 3:13 PM, AUBourne said:

I'm for Gus because I think he can win 10 games a year. As long as he figures out someone must be able to develop a HS qb into an SEC qb. I'm still not sure if Nix arrival prevented us from Kiehl Frazier 3.0 or if JG is actually prepared to take over if needed. 

But I dont understand the thought process that a school can only hire a coach that has already won titles. Dabo's first HC job is Clemson. Lincoln Riley first hc job is Oklahoma. Smart's first hc job is Georgia. So yeah I'm pretty sure AU can hire a talented assistant too.

Hope you are right, but 10 games seems a bit of a stretch.

[gulftiger66 168]

5 hours ago, AU-24 said:

I believe the heavens just opened up, and commonsense has moved in amongst us! Thank you so much for the post.

Those of us that support Gus or semi support Gus.....show us the guaranteed up-and-coming Dudley Sweeney or Nick Satan and we will gladly say: buy-out Gus’s contract and hire. That up and coming guy, as far as we know, is just not out there.

Many Auburn fans seem to think (every year it seems) that "the up and coming guy" does exist..... until he is hired by someone and flames out a couple of years later.   I won't list the names but we all know who they are.  I'm just thankful that we aren't going through the agony that is Tennessee football  right now.  I guess this means that I'm still on the Gus Bus, but I am also prepared to hit a couple of potholes every year.  

[AU-24 3,128]

2 minutes ago, gulftiger66 said:

Many Auburn fans seem to think (every year it seems) that "the up and coming guy" does exist..... until he is hired by someone and flames out a couple of years later.   I won't list the names but we all know who they are.  I'm just thankful that we aren't going through the agony that is Tennessee football  right now.  I guess this means that I'm still on the Gus Bus, but I am also prepared to hit a couple of potholes every year.  

Well said!        UT, Tenn, UCLA, USCE, FSU, and the list goes on....

It will be interesting to see how the Jimbo experience works.

[AUBourne 425]

8 minutes ago, gulftiger66 said:

Many Auburn fans seem to think (every year it seems) that "the up and coming guy" does exist..... until he is hired by someone and flames out a couple of years later.   I won't list the names but we all know who they are.  I'm just thankful that we aren't going through the agony that is Tennessee football  right now.  I guess this means that I'm still on the Gus Bus, but I am also prepared to hit a couple of potholes every year.  

I understand your POV. But I would rather take a chance than accept 5 losses a year as a new standard of expectations. Right now I think Gus with his level of recruiting can maintain 10 wins a year over the next 5 seasons. If he cant I would be all for finding a new coach. No matter how bad a coach has been, since Pat Dye, they have all been able to win at AU. Unlike UT we have a great recruiting base around us. 

[oracle79 3,569]

5 hours ago, Auctoritas said:

What portion of his job is the 60 minutes on a Saturday vs the many other activities and outcomes?

The "60 minutes" on Saturday is a snapshot into what Gus has been doing with his time for at least 300+ days a year, 10 hour + days involving recruiting, scheming, program organization, managing assistants, film watching, practice preparation, game preparation, greasing the base of alumni/media/PTB, etc.  Think of it as 12 end of semester exams that he exhibits his mastery of his job to the fans.  Failing 5 or 6 of those indicates poor preparation or performance.  It's more than one 60 minute snapshot.

[augolf1716 21,939]

8 hours ago, bigbird said:

Wrong

Competely wrong good lord

[ChltteTiger 649]

2 hours ago, AUBourne said:

I understand your POV. But I would rather take a chance than accept 5 losses a year as a new standard of expectations. Right now I think Gus with his level of recruiting can maintain 10 wins a year over the next 5 seasons. If he cant I would be all for finding a new coach. No matter how bad a coach has been, since Pat Dye, they have all been able to win at AU. Unlike UT we have a great recruiting base around us. 

If Gus can manage 10 wins a year for the next 5 years in the toughest division in CFB they should probably name the stadium after him!

I would like to "realistically" see an average of 9 wins a year with at least one outstanding (12 or more wins) season mixed in.

 

[Texan4Auburn 1,626]

On 9/3/2019 at 2:11 AM, Dual-Threat Rigby said:

2017 Auburn didn’t have literally the worst playoff contending defense. Guy eviscerated UGA’s defense in the first and the second they stopped scoring consistently, UGA points came in droves. He also is reminiscent of the type of offense Stidham worked in at Baylor 

Stidham wasn't Baker Mayfield 2017 leading the nations best offense. OU actually quit scoring for the most part actually in the second lol:

Quote

Here is a recap of the Sooners’ drive results in the second half of the playoff game:

• Punt
• Punt
• Punt
• Interception
• Punt
• Touchdown
• Punt
• Punt

Also SEC defenses were not that good, ask Lincoln:

https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidching/2018/07/05/even-if-lincoln-riley-is-correct-about-georgias-defense-stats-say-he-is-not-so-what/#386e9e573523

My Texas grad gf and I were at a OU couples watch party for that.... good times... very entertaining.

[AUBourne 425]

2 hours ago, ChltteTiger said:

If Gus can manage 10 wins a year for the next 5 years in the toughest division in CFB they should probably name the stadium after him!

I would like to "realistically" see an average of 9 wins a year with at least one outstanding (12 or more wins) season mixed in.

 

Getting a bit picky in 9 vs 10 especially when talking averages over a 5 year period. During a 5 year period if we win 9 games 3 times, 10 games once and 13 once (SEC title) we avg 10. Win a playoff game or two and 10 win avg is easy. I dont consider 2018 LSU special and they won 10 games with an idiot for a coach. If an established AU coach is not winning an SEC title once every 5 years he needs to go. 

[Mikey 16,781]

2 hours ago, ChltteTiger said:

I would like to "realistically" see an average of 9 wins a year with at least one outstanding (12 or more wins) season mixed in.

I don't think that's "realistic". Nine wins in a regular season equals 75% wins. No coach in the history of Auburn football that coached more than one year has had a 75% winning record. The closest was Mike Donahue at .743 and he coached his last game at AU in 1922. What you're saying is you'd be somewhat satisfied if Gus turned into the best coach AU has ever had. Of course, any AU fan should be satisfied if Gus turned into our most successful coach ever but making 75% wins a standard to expect isn't being very realistic.

[AUBourne 425]

2 hours ago, Mikey said:

I don't think that's "realistic". Nine wins in a regular season equals 75% wins. No coach in the history of Auburn football that coached more than one year has had a 75% winning record. The closest was Mike Donahue at .743 and he coached his last game at AU in 1922. What you're saying is you'd be somewhat satisfied if Gus turned into the best coach AU has ever had. Of course, any AU fan should be satisfied if Gus turned into our most successful coach ever but making 75% wins a standard to expect isn't being very realistic.

But were not talking about an entire career. Were talking about the next 5 years of an established coach. Also hard to compare pre Dye AU to current AU. Not to mention how 14 or 15 games in a title year effects the average of games won per season. 

[ChltteTiger 649]

7 hours ago, Mikey said:

I don't think that's "realistic". Nine wins in a regular season equals 75% wins. No coach in the history of Auburn football that coached more than one year has had a 75% winning record. The closest was Mike Donahue at .743 and he coached his last game at AU in 1922. What you're saying is you'd be somewhat satisfied if Gus turned into the best coach AU has ever had. Of course, any AU fan should be satisfied if Gus turned into our most successful coach ever but making 75% wins a standard to expect isn't being very realistic.

Apparently you did not carefully read the original post and my reply; we are talking about a  hypothetical 5 year average. Pat Dye certainly averaged at least 9 wins a year from '82-'86 (47-14 record) and likely did even better later on when we won 3 straight SEC titles.  I believe Tubbs also managed 9 wins a year from 2002-2006.

[AU-24 3,128]

5 hours ago, AUBourne said:

But were not talking about an entire career. Were talking about the next 5 years of an established coach. Also hard to compare pre Dye AU to current AU. Not to mention how 14 or 15 games in a title year effects the average of games won per season. 

🤷‍♂️

[AU64 10,122]

57 minutes ago, ChltteTiger said:

Apparently you did not carefully read the original post and my reply; we are talking about a  hypothetical 5 year average. Pat Dye certainly averaged at least 9 wins a year from '82-'86 (47-14 record) and likely did even better later on when we won 3 straight SEC titles.  I believe Tubbs also managed 9 wins a year from 2002-2006.

Dye had probably the best talent those few years that AU ever had...before or afterward.    but Tubs was close behind in his best years......and did not hurt that bama was not what they are now.   

Comparing records is interesting IMO, but you have to consider context also. in 04 only 4 SEC teams won over 9 games and the year before when we were preseason in the top 5 and only won 8 games.   Seems that most coaches have streaks, usually tied to a guy named Bo or Cadillac....or maybe Jason.....and when those guys were gone, we generally revert to the "mean"....which means about 8 wins....plus or minus one.  

[DAG 34,553]

I am one of those people that thinks Gus should absolutely be able to get to 9 wins annually. 

We have 3 teams whom we have overwhelming talent over: Ole Miss, Arkansas and Mississippi State

we usually have three tune up  games a year 

so those are six very winnable games 

We have several competitive games: LSU, Bama, UGA, Aggies and out of conference game. There is no reason why we shouldn’t be able to win two out of five of those games

Finally you had the bowl game.

9 games in this day and age is definitely doable.

[keesler 5,943]

14 hours ago, AUBourne said:

I understand your POV. But I would rather take a chance than accept 5 losses a year as a new standard of expectations. Right now I think Gus with his level of recruiting can maintain 10 wins a year over the next 5 seasons. If he cant I would be all for finding a new coach. No matter how bad a coach has been, since Pat Dye, they have all been able to win at AU. Unlike UT we have a great recruiting base around us. 

The level of AU's recruiting the past 10 yrs has been the best it's ever been, yet this staff still hasn't seen fit to maintain anything better than the 8 win average.   I don't have your faith in them nor do I think they can miraculously achieve that level in the next 5 yrs.

Hell, at this point I'd be happy just to see them string together a few 9 win seasons.  Is that too much to ask from a crew that's pulling in a top 5 salary every year?

[dyehardfanAU 2,117]

5 minutes ago, DAG said:

I am one of those people that thinks Gus should absolutely be able to get to 9 wins annually. 

We have 3 teams whom we have overwhelming talent over: Ole Miss, Arkansas and Mississippi State

we usually have three tune up  games a year 

so those are six very winnable games 

We have several competitive games: LSU, Bama, UGA, Aggies and out of conference game. There is no reason why we shouldn’t be able to win two out of five of those games

Finally you had the bowl game.

9 games in this day and age is definitely doable.

I agree.  In a minimum 13 game season 9 wins should be our floor.  AU is paying for a Top 5 coaching staff so expecting Top 15 seasons is not too much to ask for.

[AUFAN78 4,130]

10 minutes ago, DAG said:

I am one of those people that thinks Gus should absolutely be able to get to 9 wins annually. 

We have 3 teams whom we have overwhelming talent over: Ole Miss, Arkansas and Mississippi State

we usually have three tune up  games a year 

so those are six very winnable games 

We have several competitive games: LSU, Bama, UGA, Aggies and out of conference game. There is no reason why we shouldn’t be able to win two out of five of those games

Finally you had the bowl game.

9 games in this day and age is definitely doable.

Doable yes, but to get there recruiting (particularly Oline) and play calling must improve IMO. Can Gus get there? IDK. #hopeful

[Tiger 8,853]

16 hours ago, Auctoritas said:

I don't disagree with anything you say.

Saturdays or a Saturday? Again, my issue was with the characterization that 1 game - in any coach - should be a thing that gets a coach fired.

My personal feeling is that it is 65/35, with the caveat that we are talking about over a LONG time AND that the off-the-field stuff ought to translate into improvement. I realize that's probably lower than other people, but that's also a reasonable disagreement to have. The "fireable offenses" thing though...that just grinds my gears. You don't fire a coach in knee-jerk reactions because of an outcome you don't like. There's a bigger picture.

The question of what a subpar W/L record is is another question. My personal (unpopular opinion): I happen to think that a 65/35 W/L is, ironically, also what buys another season (that's 8-4) so long as everything else is going well. For a time, at least. Would I like more wins? heck yes. I'd rather go undefeated every year, or at least 9-3 or 10-2 and ruin Bama or UGAs season.

I think we are almost there. I honestly do.
 

I agree 1 game shouldn't make or break someone. We can agree to disagree on the percentage splits as that's just a matter of opinion anyways. My thing with us being close or almost there to perennial 9 and 10 win seasons is that it's seemed like we've been close for a while but Gus has stumbled. And the Oregon game showed some of the same deficiencies Gus has always had, rather than proving he's improving on those.

I hope stability at QB for the next few years helps us achieve that and I hope Gus can put Bo in the maximum position to succeed. For the record I don't see our AD pulling the trigger on firing him until the buyout decreases significantly and that'll be in about 3 years. Maybe 2. But this also depends on how bad we look as a team since our entire OL will be gone next season.

I just don't want to look back at these years and think Gus' refusal to attack the middle of the field and give his QB checkdowns in the face of aggressive blitzes and say we squandered some of our best talent ever and have 1 SEC championship to show for it which was in Gus' first season. We've never recruited this well and I hate that we're not maximizing it. We had an NFL QB on the team last year and had a pretty poor season. Ugh.

[DAG 34,553]

1 hour ago, AUFAN78 said:

Doable yes, but to get there recruiting (particularly Oline) and play calling must improve IMO. Can Gus get there? IDK. #hopeful

Yeah I remember calling you out about your critique of the o line but in hindsight you were completely right. 

[DAG 34,553]

1 hour ago, dyehardfanAU said:

I agree.  In a minimum 13 game season 9 wins should be our floor.  AU is paying for a Top 5 coaching staff so expecting Top 15 seasons is not too much to ask for.

And I think that’s what most don’t get. Majority is not asking for him to even have top 5 results consistently. We just want him to consistently beat those teams that he should beat and be competitive with those quality teams.

granted in our past , we have been consistently inconsistent but when you are investing what we are investing , you have to get to a point of overcoming that. 

[AUFAN78 4,130]

4 minutes ago, DAG said:

Yeah I remember calling you out about your critique of the o line but in hindsight you were completely right. 

Thanks! I get one right occasionally. 

I do think the oline was okay in game one as far as pass protection goes, but Bo panicked when he could have stepped up in the pocket. He is a freshman. It happens.

My problem is with push on run plays. Still think that may be a problem as we move forward in the season. We shall see.

Always appreciate your insight. WDE!

[AU64 10,122]

1 hour ago, AUFAN78 said:

play calling must improve IMO.

JMO but such a nebulous comment.....improve how?     make more yards?...or what.  That seems like such a cheap complaint with no alternative to offer.   So we should throw more passes over the middle...but can you be sure the QB can make the throws?  or the receivers run the routes....or catch the ball.   I know I"m old fashioned but I still believe that when you throw the ball beyond the LOS there are two good possibilities for a negative result.    Does not seem reasonable that you can see another team's offense and think that AU could run that same offense with the same result.  

As I noted, Jerry Jeudy is gonna make anyone's passing offense look good.   And why did Oregon throw mostly 3-5 yard passes when they had an NFL QB?  

[AUFAN78 4,130]

1 minute ago, AU64 said:

JMO but such a nebulous comment.....improve how?     make more yards?...or what.  That seems like such a cheap complaint with no alternative to offer.   So we should throw more passes over the middle...but can you be sure the QB can make the throws?  or the receivers run the routes....or catch the ball.   I know I"m old fashioned but I still believe that when you throw the ball beyond the LOS there are two good possibilities for a negative result.    Does not seem reasonable that you can see another team's offense and think that AU could run that same offense with the same result.  

As I noted, Jerry Jeudy is gonna make anyone's passing offense look good.   And why did Oregon throw mostly 3-5 yard passes when they had an NFL QB?  

 I hear you. So it seems we have basically three pass plays: go pattern, quick out/wide receiver screen or wheel. I just find it hard to believe we can't hit an occasional slant or post. I just think we need to soften the middle on occasion. JMO

[keesler 5,943]

11 minutes ago, AU64 said:

JMO but such a nebulous comment.....improve how?     make more yards?...or what.  That seems like such a cheap complaint with no alternative to offer.   So we should throw more passes over the middle...but can you be sure the QB can make the throws?  or the receivers run the routes....or catch the ball.   I know I"m old fashioned but I still believe that when you throw the ball beyond the LOS there are two good possibilities for a negative result.    Does not seem reasonable that you can see another team's offense and think that AU could run that same offense with the same result.  

As I noted, Jerry Jeudy is gonna make anyone's passing offense look good.   And why did Oregon throw mostly 3-5 yard passes when they had an NFL QB?  

I don't know AU64, I watch a lot of other college level offenses consistently put an effective and productive offense on the field.  They'll have a few hick-ups, but over all they don't seem to struggle, force things or shoe a lack of execution from their players.  

I think Gus knows the issues, and I think he knows how his offense needs to execute.  I'm just not sure he knows how to translate it to the soldiers on the field.  Maybe Dillingham was hired to facilitate Gus' vision and get it to the field?