Bold predictions for the SEC

[aubiefifty 18,201]

SEC bold predictions for the 2019 season

ByBrad Crawford Jun 29, 11:32 AM

 

Kirby Smart said it best earlier this summer in response to Dan Mullen's plethora of playful shots at Georgia.

"I just don't know that there is a lot that we control by the words we say," Smart said. "Football so much to me is played between the lines and the physicality of the people that play it."

Much like preseason predictions from those who don't strap on a helmet and shoulder pads, take these picks as you may. Whether they're used for bulletin board fodder or I-told-you-so tweets during the season, these SEC prognostications are meant to warrant discussion and make you ponder arguments outside of the norm.

Some predictions are bolder than others, but here are 10 picks that could surprise in the SEC this season:

10. Mizzou is a Top 10 team in November

It'll only last a week, but the Tigers will be ranked inside the Top 10 at 8-0 following a win over Kentucky on Oct. 26, heading into a mammoth showdown vs. Georgia in Athens coming out of their bye week in November. Courtesy of the SEC's softest schedules next fall, Mizzou will take full advantage of a favorable slate with Clemson transfer Kelly Bryant at quarterback and benefit from a five-week stretch of home games from Sept. 7 to Oct. 12. They'll flounder down the stretch, but the Tigers will be 2019's Kentucky from last season. With the current Vegas win total at 6.5 for Mizzou, get in quickly and buy low.

9. Arkansas goes bowling

Arkansas will be a much-improved football team in 2019, largely due to better quarterback play, an underrated rushing attack and immediate impact newcomers at wideout. In other words, expect Chad Morris' offense to take a substantial step forward after a two-win disaster. Road games at Ole Miss and Kentucky are the two swing contests that will dictate whether the Razorbacks finish 6-6 or worse. Win both of those, sweep the cupcake non-conference slate and there's your bowl berth. My take on the Razorbacks' potential bowl hopes this season and projected hot start in September can be heard, here.

8. Kentucky misses a bowl game after 10 wins

First, Kentucky veteran linebacker Kash Daniel has something to say about the onslaught of less-than-positive preseason projections involving his Wildcats this season: "They're just a bunch of jackasses, who cares," Daniel said this month. "ESPN, CBS, NBC, I don't care. The season starts in August and we'll see how it goes."

I'm not high on Kentucky either and attributing it to substantial personnel losses, faltering hopes in quarterback Terry Wilson and an opening SEC stretch on the schedule that will put Mark Stoops' team against the wall early. Kentucky's 5-year winning streak vs. South Carolina will end, chalk the Florida game to the Gators with the revenge factor setting in and the road trip to Starkville will be a challenge. That leaves the biggest shock of all — a home loss to Arkansas — as the potential head-scratcher this fall that may keep the Wildcats out of the postseason.

7. The SEC produces two Heisman finalists

Tua Tagovailoa has to be a Heisman finalist lock as a junior after finishing second to Kyler Murray last fall, right? The other pick here is Georgia's Jake Fromm, who should take the next step as one of college football's top passers. He rarely gets the credit he deserves in the quarterback conversation nationally, but that'll change this season when he does more with less after losing top receiver Jeremiah Holloman this summer. At times, Fromm will shoulder the offensive burden for the Bulldogs, who I expect to reach the College Football Playoff despite a litany of reasons — schedule toughness, personnel departures at the skill spots — why they should not. Both of these quarterbacks should pass the 3,000-yard, 30-touchdown plateau this season as leaders of two Top 5 teams throughout.

6. Gus Malzahn is SEC's only departing coach

With Gus Malzahn's buyout considerable, it wouldn't have made much sense financially to pull the plug on his regime at the end of last season for the Tigers' power brass. But will eight wins (or worse) for a preseason Top 25 team be enough for Malzahn to keep his job on the Plains after the 2019 season? The added role of play-caller may help, but Auburn feels like it is stuck in a strange realm of not knowing who it wants to be right now. Beginning with the opener vs. Oregon (in Dallas) and culminating with the Iron Bowl showdown vs. Alabama, Auburn's 2019 schedule is filled with potential potholes. Say the Tigers lose both of those matchups vs. Top 10 teams — do you think Malzahn can scrap and claw his way to eight wins over the 10 contests in-between? That slate includes road trips to LSU, Florida and Texas A&M as well as tough games on the Plains vs. Georgia and Mississippi State. This is not the season the Tigers compete for a crown in the SEC West. The schedule doesn't set up for it, even if Auburn is solid at the quarterback spot and improved offensively.

5. South Carolina ends skid vs. Top 25 teams

Will Muschamp has lost 10 straight games against nationally-ranked teams with the Gamecocks, dating back to his first season in 2016. Facing the nation's toughest schedule this fall with as many as six matchups vs. Top 25 competition, it's not far-fetched to think South Carolina prevails in at least one of those contests, right? Muschamp says this will be the best team he's had in Columbia and that he expects the Gamecocks to be formidable. The victory may not come against Alabama, Georgia or Clemson, but Florida and Texas A&M are winnable games for a team led by senior quarterback Jake Bentley and a few elite players on defense.

4. Jim Chaney is SEC's top (new) assistant

There's nowhere to go but up for the Vols offensively and Chaney is the right man for the job. With the help of first-year Tennessee assistant Tee Martin, Chaney should help Tennessee excel in the primary area the program has been lacking in recent years — quarterback. The Vols have weapons at the skill position, but there's uncertainty on whether rising junior Jarrett Guarantano is the long-term difference maker under center. Tennessee has ranked dead-last in the SEC the past two seasons in total offense, but the Vols will jump several spots in that category and get to a bowl game this season with Chaney's help offensively. I'll even go one step further and project Tennessee to hit the over with eight regular-season wins this fall. Chaney will be a major part of that.

3. LSU, Texas A&M decides SEC West runner-up

This one's not a huge limb, but one of these teams is going to win 10 games this season and reach the New Year's Six as the SEC's third-best team. Considering Texas A&M's preseason win total of 7.5, the Aggies would be the bigger surprise. By most accounts, they face the second toughest schedule in the conference behind South Carolina and are one of only two teams nationally who will play Alabama, Georgia and Clemson this season. This regular-season finale in Baton Rouge will be seismic should both teams come in ranked inside the Top 10 with a major bowl invite on the line in front of the selection committee.

2. Florida beats Georgia, doesn't win East

I initially made this pick back in January and I'm sticking to it for the lightweight upset prediction in the East. Honestly, it won't be all that surprising since both teams should be inside the Top 10 when this matchup comes around in November. The Gators' schedule isn't going to do them any favors, however. Florida will come into the Cocktail Party with at least one SEC loss (Auburn, LSU, South Carolina three straight weeks pre-Georgia) and then face enormous pressure at Mizzou on Nov. 16 after beating the Bulldogs to potentially clinch the East. Somehow, Florida will finish 6-2 in SEC play and miss out on a trip to Atlanta despite beating the eventual division champs. Another 10-win season for Dan Mullen, perhaps 11 if the Gators care about their postseason game in the New Year's Six. This is undoubtedly the most important game on Florida's schedule.

1. Nick Saban suffers first loss to former assistant

The six-time national champion has never tasted defeat against a former assistant, an unprecedented mark that could reach 20 games this fall should Alabama meet Georgia as an unbeaten in the SEC Championship Game. But will it? I have a feeling the 2019 season will be a strange one for the Bulldogs, who will be 11-1 (with a loss to Florida) and playing for a spot in the Playoff vs. the Crimson Tide in Atlanta. After coming up a couple plays short the past two games in the budding rivalry, Georgia will end Saban's streak in December to win the SEC, but could wind up playing the Crimson Tide again in the Playoff.

[keesler 5,957]

1 hour ago, aubiefifty said:

6. Gus Malzahn is SEC's only departing coach

With Gus Malzahn's buyout considerable, it wouldn't have made much sense financially to pull the plug on his regime at the end of last season for the Tigers' power brass. But will eight wins (or worse) for a preseason Top 25 team be enough for Malzahn to keep his job on the Plains after the 2019 season? The added role of play-caller may help, but Auburn feels like it is stuck in a strange realm of not knowing who it wants to be right now. Beginning with the opener vs. Oregon (in Dallas) and culminating with the Iron Bowl showdown vs. Alabama, Auburn's 2019 schedule is filled with potential potholes. Say the Tigers lose both of those matchups vs. Top 10 teams — do you think Malzahn can scrap and claw his way to eight wins over the 10 contests in-between? That slate includes road trips to LSU, Florida and Texas A&M as well as tough games on the Plains vs. Georgia and Mississippi State. This is not the season the Tigers compete for a crown in the SEC West. The schedule doesn't set up for it, even if Auburn is solid at the quarterback spot and improved offensively.

 

I've felt like Auburn has had no "identity" for 5 yrs now.  I've questioned whether CGM even knows how to get what HE wants out of HIS players and coaches?

[aubiefifty 18,201]

1 hour ago, keesler said:

I've felt like Auburn has had no "identity" for 5 yrs now.  I've questioned whether CGM even knows how to get what HE wants out of HIS players and coaches?

i will fully support gus until he is no longer a coach at auburn. and i will wish him the best with whatever he does next.

[DAG 34,725]

4 hours ago, keesler said:

I've felt like Auburn has had no "identity" for 5 yrs now.  I've questioned whether CGM even knows how to get what HE wants out of HIS players and coaches?

The biggest undoing for Gus was giving up playcalling duties. He should’ve never done that to begin with. 

[McLoofus 35,182]

15 minutes ago, DAG said:

The biggest undoing for Gus was giving up playcalling duties. He should’ve never done that to begin with. 

Except the only time he did that was for the middle of the season in 2016. Our offense immediately got much better as soon as he did that. And it stayed really good until most of our guys got hurt. Whether Rhett asked him or he took it upon himself, he took back over for the end of the season. 

That's not me saying that Rhett called the good plays and Gus called the bad ones. It's just what happened. Rhett took over, we had the 6-FG win that got Les Miles fired, and then we tore the SEC a new one. Then both of our primary RBs and Sean White were hurt. Gus tried to save the season after Vandy but we couldn't get off the mat. 

The case can just as easily be made that Gus's mistake was to not actually give play-calling duties over to Lindsey, but instead run whatever BS co-OC scheme we had going. Who knows what we could have accomplished last year if Lindsey was actually able to fulfill the duties of an OC.

I can agree that Gus calling the plays is better than whatever the last couple years were. But I'm not convinced that it's a better idea than him hiring a real play caller (which he did) and actually letting that guy do his job (which he didn't). 

 

[DAG 34,725]

47 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

Except the only time he did that was for the middle of the season in 2016. Our offense immediately got much better as soon as he did that. And it stayed really good until most of our guys got hurt. Whether Rhett asked him or he took it upon himself, he took back over for the end of the season. 

That's not me saying that Rhett called the good plays and Gus called the bad ones. It's just what happened. Rhett took over, we had the 6-FG win that got Les Miles fired, and then we tore the SEC a new one. Then both of our primary RBs and Sean White were hurt. Gus tried to save the season after Vandy but we couldn't get off the mat. 

The case can just as easily be made that Gus's mistake was to not actually give play-calling duties over to Lindsey, but instead run whatever BS co-OC scheme we had going. Who knows what we could have accomplished last year if Lindsey was actually able to fulfill the duties of an OC.

I can agree that Gus calling the plays is better than whatever the last couple years were. But I'm not convinced that it's a better idea than him hiring a real play caller (which he did) and actually letting that guy do his job (which he didn't). 

 

Well I am not saying he would’ve been better. I am saying that is his passion and if he wanted it to go a certain direction, there shouldn’t have been any doubt who was calling plays. He got hired for his offensive prowess. When he said he wanted to “give that up” that’s kind of all I needed to know tbh. We will see how it plays out this year because now it’s once again no doubt .

[JBiGGiE 2,488]

I feel this #6 assessment is way off the mark. I think Gus knows exactly what his identity is because he's been preaching it for years. I think he'd been handcuffed since the Jeremy Johnson debacle by Jay Jacobs and then Allen Greene came in let him do his thing. Except Chip Lindsey also wanted to keep doing his thing.

I don't think identity will be an issue this year.

[DAG 34,725]

2 minutes ago, JBiGGiE said:

I feel this #6 assessment is way off the mark. I think Gus knows exactly what his identity is because he's been preaching it for years. I think he'd been handcuffed since the Jeremy Johnson debacle by Jay Jacobs and then Allen Greene came in let him do his thing. Except Chip Lindsey also wanted to keep doing his thing.

I don't think identity will be an issue this year.

Yellow font?

[dyehardfanAU 2,117]

13 minutes ago, JBiGGiE said:

I feel this #6 assessment is way off the mark. I think Gus knows exactly what his identity is because he's been preaching it for years. I think he'd been handcuffed since the Jeremy Johnson debacle by Jay Jacobs and then Allen Greene came in let him do his thing. Except Chip Lindsey also wanted to keep doing his thing.

I don't think identity will be an issue this year.

How was Gus handcuffed from recruiting QBs and OL by Jay Jacobs?

[twilli13 600]

1 hour ago, dyehardfanAU said:

How was Gus handcuffed from recruiting QBs and OL by Jay Jacobs?

Exactly. I'm really failing to see this one. 

[toddc 13,197]

1 hour ago, dyehardfanAU said:

How was Gus handcuffed from recruiting QBs and OL by Jay Jacobs?

I think he was talking about the rumors of CGM being pushed to be more of an executive and back off running the offense. Not trying to speak for you @JBiGGie, but that’s my assumption.

[twilli13 600]

1 hour ago, JBiGGiE said:

I feel this #6 assessment is way off the mark. I think Gus knows exactly what his identity is because he's been preaching it for years. I think he'd been handcuffed since the Jeremy Johnson debacle by Jay Jacobs and then Allen Greene came in let him do his thing. Except Chip Lindsey also wanted to keep doing his thing.

I don't think identity will be an issue this year.

The Jeremy Johnson thing I think was a foreshadowing of a part of a larger issue...offensive identity. Gus tried to make the mistake of running a true passing offense with a passing playbook that was not very complex and a qb that couldnt read defenses or escape when things broke down. To beat top tier sec teams, you need to be able to run and pass well. Without a more sophisticated passing offense, Gus will always need a dual threat guy to keep defenses honest and add an extra element to an otherwise simplistic scheme. 

[dyehardfanAU 2,117]

15 minutes ago, toddc said:

I think he was talking about the rumors of CGM being pushed to be more of an executive and back off running the offense. Not trying to speak for you @JBiGGie, but that’s my assumption.

Gus has failed in so many aspects as HC and program manager that I find it hard to lay any of them at the feet of Jay Jacobs.  And this is coming from someone who has disliked Jacobs as AD from the moment he was hired.

[Dual-Threat Rigby 9,035]

I'm not saying it's biased towards anyone, or for everyone. But still eating up the UGA hype train, especially after all the pieces they lost last year? Good grief. 

How the hell is Jake Fromm going to be a Heisman finalist? 

[Dual-Threat Rigby 9,035]

Guy did nothing against a UT team that gave up 40 several times against real Heismen candidates, but now Jake Fromm....alright man. 

[dyehardfanAU 2,117]

20 minutes ago, twilli13 said:

The Jeremy Johnson thing I think was a foreshadowing of a part of a larger issue...offensive identity. Gus tried to make the mistake of running a true passing offense with a passing playbook that was not very complex and a qb that couldnt read defenses or escape when things broke down. To beat top tier sec teams, you need to be able to run and pass well. Without a more sophisticated passing offense, Gus will always need a dual threat guy to keep defenses honest and add an extra element to an otherwise simplistic scheme. 

There are HS teams all over the country running more advance passing schemes than Gus.

[alexava 6,974]

1 hour ago, toddc said:

I think he was talking about the rumors of CGM being pushed to be more of an executive and back off running the offense. Not trying to speak for you @JBiGGie, but that’s my assumption.

A couple of “ insiders” here claimed he was forced to give Rhett the offense then forced to push Rhett out and hire another coordinator. That’s exactly when he quit calling plays. 

[DAG 34,725]

1 hour ago, toddc said:

I think he was talking about the rumors of CGM being pushed to be more of an executive and back off running the offense. Not trying to speak for you @JBiGGie, but that’s my assumption.

He definitely didn’t have to accept that. Either way, he is still the head coach. Nick Saban doesn’t call plays , but rest assured he has a vision for what offense he wants to run and the guy he hires better follow suit with it.

[AUsince72 11,084]

On 7/3/2019 at 3:48 PM, DAG said:

The biggest undoing for Gus was giving up playcalling duties. He should’ve never done that to begin with. 

Well, this is partially correct.

The REAL issue is that he decided to only call plays that didn't work while letting Rhett & Chip call the good plays.

 

[gr82be 14,901]

44 minutes ago, AUsince72 said:

Well, this is partially correct.

The REAL issue is that he decided to only call plays that didn't work while letting Rhett & Chip call the good plays.

 

Was Chip in the restroom the entire second half of the LSU game in '17? That has to be the only explanation. 

[AUsince72 11,084]

13 minutes ago, gr82be said:

Was Chip in the restroom the entire second half of the LSU game in '17? That has to be the only explanation. 

EXACTLY!!

[McLoofus 35,182]

15 hours ago, gr82be said:

Was Chip in the restroom the entire second half of the LSU game in '17? That has to be the only explanation. 

His whereabouts are yet to be confirmed, but he was definitely ****ting a brick. 

(Gus said at hafltime that he figured, "How many points can they score on this defense?" He shut the offense down.)

[WalkingCarpet 1,379]

15 hours ago, gr82be said:

Was Chip in the restroom the entire second half of the LSU game in '17? That has to be the only explanation. 

DACOACHO fed him some bad gumbo on Friday night. It's the only explanation. 

[gr82be 14,901]

31 minutes ago, McLoofus said:

His whereabouts are yet to be confirmed, but he was definitely ****ting a brick. 

(Gus said at hafltime that he figured, "How many points can they score on this defense?" He shut the offense down.)

Here's an idea. Let's pay the HC by the win, you aren't paid to lose. Let's pay OC per point scored. Then pay the DC a salary that is deducted by each point scored. That should be incentive to not shut things down. 

I know, I know. We'd never get a coach to agree to it but I can dream. 

 

[McLoofus 35,182]

20 minutes ago, gr82be said:

Here's an idea. Let's pay the HC by the win, you aren't paid to lose. Let's pay OC per point scored. Then pay the DC a salary that is deducted by each point scored. That should be incentive to not shut things down. 

I know, I know. We'd never get a coach to agree to it but I can dream. 

Lucky for Chip he wasn't subjected to that. Would've been like only feeding a dog on a leash when he catches a squirrel. 

Actually lucky for Steele, too. Hard to keep a clean sheet when you're on the field for 70% of the game. 

Our HC got paid over $800k per win last year.