QB development is good

[McLoofus 35,182]

1 minute ago, AUinTLoosa said:

So

My job here is done?

 

de nada

Yours is done, and mine is just beginning.

*furiously peruses "how to use a library" google results*

[AU64 10,122]

23 minutes ago, AUinTLoosa said:

Sorry

maybe wasn't clear enough with my underline of "question."

All "ghosts" (once recorded) are real in some sense, even if just bad measurements. In any finite dataset, the only way to settle a question as to whether the ghost is in any way "meaningful" to our understanding of the mechanism underlying the general pattern is more (sometimes much more) data (confirmational replication).

And isn't there something to the theory that if a "ghost" happens once, ...the probabilities are greater that it will happen again than that it will never happen again (a total one-off)..... but there could be a long time between appearances.  

Thus, in such cases I guess it is necessary, as you note, to just keep on collecting data and see where it takes you ?  And perhaps thus, at the moment we have too small a sample to draw conclusions about whether or not Gus is able to develop QBs.....and at what % of the opportunities?   Especially if we can't even decide on the definition of "develop". 

Hey...this is fun....

[McLoofus 35,182]

14 minutes ago, AU64 said:

And isn't there something to the theory that if a "ghost" happens once, ...the probabilities are greater that it will happen again than that it will never happen again (a total one-off)..... but there could be a long time between appearances.  

Thus, in such cases I guess it is necessary, as you note, to just keep on collecting data and see where it takes you ?  And perhaps thus, at the moment we have too small a sample to draw conclusions about whether or not Gus is able to develop QBs.....and at what % of the opportunities?   Especially if we can't even decide on the definition of "develop". 

Hey...this is fun....

Picking a top 5 list from the posts in this thread is proving difficult already. 

[AUld fAUx@ 2,584]

11 minutes ago, AU64 said:

And isn't there something to the theory that if a "ghost" happens once, ...the probabilities are greater that it will happen again than that it will never happen again (a total one-off)..... but there could be a long time between appearances.  

Thus, in such cases I guess it is necessary, as you note, to just keep on collecting data and see where it takes you ?  And perhaps thus, at the moment we have too small a sample to draw conclusions about whether or not Gus is able to develop QBs.....and at what % of the opportunities?   Especially if we can't even decide on the definition of "develop". 

Hey...this is fun....

Also, in review, 

I find myself remiss in not keeping clear that the discussion was about Mr. KC's "how many people are shown a pattern and bet the farm on the anomaly."

The ensuing discussion had little to do with whatever is the underlying reality, but with what we accept of it.

[AU64 10,122]

2 minutes ago, AUinTLoosa said:

Also, in review, 

I find myself remiss in not keeping clear that the discussion was about Mr. KC's "how many people are shown a pattern and bet the farm on the anomaly."

The ensuing discussion had little to do with whatever is the underlying reality, but with what we accept of it.

That is hardly debatable.....people here bet the farm on the anomaly all of the time...probably assuming that everything rises to the mean.  Thus if a guy is 2 for 8 in a game and keeps shooting he will eventually end up at 50% or something....even it takes some number of shots approaching infinity for him to get there...he should just keep on shooting...or is that a bad example? 

And of course, people are often inclined to bet on what they want to happen rather than what experience and probabilities should be telling them. 

[lionheartkc 6,150]

48 minutes ago, GwillMac6 said:

Look at Chris Todds numbers against sec competition and get back to me. He inflated his numbers considerably by beating up on the cupcakes. Thats the 1 I completely disagree on calling him a success. He had 1,295 yards passing with 6 tds and 5 int against the sec. So when you see he finished the year at 2,612 yards passing with 22 tds and 6 int you see his numbers are inflated against the weaker competition.

Whether you call him a success or not, he did improve dramatically from year 1 to year 2.

[GwillMac6 20,815]

1 minute ago, lionheartkc said:

Whether you call him a success or not, he did improve dramatically from year 1 to year 2.

I don't even count the 2008 debacle of a year he did not even complete the whole season as a starter.

[lionheartkc 6,150]

Just now, GwillMac6 said:

I don't even count the 2008 debacle of a year he did not even complete the whole season.

At the same time, the part of the season he played, he was under a coach who was 100% sold on him and tried to build the offense around him.  He looked like a whole new QB in 2009.

[GwillMac6 20,815]

Just now, lionheartkc said:

At the same time, the part of the season he played, he was under a coach who was 100% sold on him and tried to build the offense around him.  He looked like a whole new QB in 2009.

against inferior competition. He threw for 87 yards against kentucky in one of the WORST auburn performances I have ever seen. 16 of his 22 tds came against non sec teams. 5 of his INT came against the SEC. he was not a disaster but I would not equate him to a success.

[corchjay 5,311]

I'm not bashing a player with this but as I've said before and I'll say it again JJ6 almost got Gus fired.  Sean's inability to stay healthy has contributed.  Now here we are with hopefully a solid starter and backup.  New OC and fresh ideas.  If we are unable to score points in the games we need to then I'll admit I was wrong.  But betcha anything I'm right at the end of this coming season.  

War Eagle

[GwillMac6 20,815]

29 minutes ago, corchjay said:

I'm not bashing a player with this but as I've said before and I'll say it again JJ6 almost got Gus fired.  Sean's inability to stay healthy has contributed.  Now here we are with hopefully a solid starter and backup.  New OC and fresh ideas.  If we are unable to score points in the games we need to then I'll admit I was wrong.  But betcha anything I'm right at the end of this coming season.  

War Eagle

Running game and scheme is fine. Its better than fine its at time historic with our performances. SEE ARKY this past season. Passing game I trust gus with it now about as much as I trust les miles to come up with a dynamic passing attack! He just is lost in that area. Its not that we have not had a dynamic QB since nick its that he is trying nothing new and just relying on the same tired ol playcalls he has always used. I love that with chip we will finally see some true rb screens again! I mean they work so well against us lets give it a shot. Chip has a lot of air raid background in him. I like that because we obviously are not going to be throwing it 45 times a game. Meshed together with Gus running game is a happy medium this offense needs.  55/45 run to pass ratio is what we should shoot for. 70/30 is absurd for non service academies in the run to pass ratio. The best part though about all of this is we may finally see some passes when GASP! first downs and non obvious passing situations. Hopefully when we go hurry up after a first down instead of the same ol dive play its something different and new.

[AUld fAUx@ 2,584]

38 minutes ago, AU64 said:

That is hardly debatable.....people here bet the farm on the anomaly all of the time...probably assuming that everything rises to the mean.  Thus if a guy is 2 for 8 in a game and keeps shooting he will eventually end up at 50% or something....even it takes some number of shots approaching infinity for him to get there...he should just keep on shooting...or is that a bad example? 

And of course, people are often inclined to bet on what they want to happen rather than what experience and probabilities should be telling them. 

Certainly not a perfect example, but eminently showcases my lack of communication skills.

Apologies.

1st observation of a "ghost" turns its probability of occurrence from completely unknowable to empirically "knowable," but poorly quantifiable (poorly "known").

Observation of any "ghost" in a machine renders our understanding of how it operates finite, and empirically calls into question our understanding of the machine's mechanism.

The significance of the "ghost" (and even the likelihood that it is philosophically "true") can only be empirically estimated with more data. 

I (again, apologetically) limit myself to the empirical side of things.

Is there any (any?) way to re-seal a can of worms once it's opened?

[DAG 34,103]

If we go the Juco route every year and be successful than whatever. However, There is not one single QB that Gus recruited out of high school and ultimately panned out, including at Arkansas. I think that is what most people are referencing. And I think some of you guys know that.

[DAG 34,103]

For instance, Gus did a very good job at Tulsa with his QBs, but both of those guys were SRs when they started for Gus. He maximized their talent for sure, which is a portion of development, but I would like to see him recruit a high school talent and groom them to success. SW is the closest. 

[Altima 200]

Year 1 at Tulsa - Sr QB

Year 2 at Tulsa - 5th year SR QB

Year 1 at AU - 5th year SR QB

Year 2 at AU - JUCO transfer QB

Year 3 at AU - SR and JR QB's (bad)

HC year 1 ASU - 5th year SR QB

HC year 2 AU - JUCO transfer QB (good)

HC year 3 AU - JUCO transfer QB (not much better)

HC year 4 AU - JR QB (bad)

HC year 5 AU - rsSoph QB (just ok)

My point is, it's very hard to see where Gus has shown he can "develop" a QB...  His offenses have done well when there's already an established QB in place.  

Gus cannot take credit for Cam and Nick. They both played in different systems before arriving to AU... and they both excelled on pure athleticism.  And... you can't really say Nick progressed from year 1 to year 2.

So really and truly, all we have to go on is Jeremy and Sean.  JJ was a complete disaster under Gus for 4 years... and honestly, I wouldn't say Sean has 'regressed' in 3 years, but he definitely hasn't gotten any better since arriving at AU as a freshman.

Hopefully Chip is gonna be the answer we've been looking for.

[Tiger Refuge 6,686]

7 hours ago, lionheartkc said:

So I can't get by with just calling it a ghost in the machine?

The reality here is you can't satisfactorily explain the mechanism causing the anomaly because either a. we're not privy to enough data to thoroughly analyze the problem (Jeremy), or b. those we are trying to explain it to refuse to accept the logic behind the shift in pattern, even though we, unfortunately, were able to replicate the circumstances and achieved similar results (Sean). 

That's a really good beer. Wait, what were y'all talking about? Dang it, nevermind.

[metafour 4,969]

6 hours ago, lionheartkc said:

At the same time, the part of the season he played, he was under a coach who was 100% sold on him and tried to build the offense around him.  He looked like a whole new QB in 2009.

Bro, the 2008 team was so f*cked up that Tony Franklin had a meltdown in a practice and started coaching every position by himself like a lunatic.  Anyone who uses Todd's improvement from 08 to 09 as proof of sort of magic coaching job by Malzahn has zero insight into how disfunctional that 2008 team was.

[mikeholiday 132]

3 hours ago, Altima said:

Year 1 at Tulsa - Sr QB

Year 2 at Tulsa - 5th year SR QB

Year 1 at AU - 5th year SR QB

Year 2 at AU - JUCO transfer QB

Year 3 at AU - SR and JR QB's (bad)

HC year 1 ASU - 5th year SR QB

HC year 2 AU - JUCO transfer QB (good)

HC year 3 AU - JUCO transfer QB (not much better)

HC year 4 AU - JR QB (bad)

HC year 5 AU - rsSoph QB (just ok)

My point is, it's very hard to see where Gus has shown he can "develop" a QB...  His offenses have done well when there's already an established QB in place.  

Gus cannot take credit for Cam and Nick. They both played in different systems before arriving to AU... and they both excelled on pure athleticism.  And... you can't really say Nick progressed from year 1 to year 2.

So really and truly, all we have to go on is Jeremy and Sean.  JJ was a complete disaster under Gus for 4 years... and honestly, I wouldn't say Sean has 'regressed' in 3 years, but he definitely hasn't gotten any better since arriving at AU as a freshman.

Hopefully Chip is gonna be the answer we've been looking for.

2

Gus was so lucky he managed to land a polished Qb recruit of Nick's caliber. Man, every team in the country was just clamoring for his services at QB. What really impressed me was how he managed to keep down his turnovers in Juco. 

 

[Strychnine 1,804]

I thought this thread (particularly its title) had to be satire when I opened it up to read it.  How can anyone assert that QB development is good and keep a straight face?  We just finished up the second season in a row with basically one QB on the roster.  That is not something you see when QB development is good.

[lca408 374]

9 hours ago, metafour said:

Bro, the 2008 team was so f*cked up that Tony Franklin had a meltdown in a practice and started coaching every position by himself like a lunatic.  Anyone who uses Todd's improvement from 08 to 09 as proof of sort of magic coaching job by Malzahn has zero insight into how disfunctional that 2008 team was.

Cannot agree more. I can't stand seeing people use Todd as the end all be all of proof of Malzahn's QB development. Todd was a 5th year senior, had experience at Texas Tech, JUCO, and Auburn. Todd was also hurt by his shoulder injury in 2008 and had to have surgery mid season. He didn't take a single snap in Spring practice and beat out Burns, Caudle, And Trotter after 9 days of fall camp. He was the best QB on campus and didn't get much if any development from Malzahn in that time frame, other than learning the offense and sitting in the classroom without an opportunity to practice until August. Malzahn gets credit for figuring out how to best use Todd in the offense that year but I doubt he did much to improve him. If Todd had been healthy in 2008, gotta think Auburn would have won a couple more games at a minimum.

Marshall is the outlier. He clearly got better and became a serviceable QB and an excellent running QB. But to me, that's the only clear evidence of Malzahn's QB development. Anyone trying to take credit for the 2015 MVP other than Mike Shula is a liar. It remains to be seen whether White is going to significantly improve if he even has the chance.

[auburnphan 6,050]

Somebody should stop writing articles on football, coming to those conclusions, lol.  Kinda like participation trophies.

[I_M4_AU 8,285]

10 hours ago, Altima said:

Year 1 at Tulsa - Sr QB

Year 2 at Tulsa - 5th year SR QB

Year 1 at AU - 5th year SR QB

Year 2 at AU - JUCO transfer QB

Year 3 at AU - SR and JR QB's (bad)

HC year 1 ASU - 5th year SR QB

HC year 2 AU - JUCO transfer QB (good)

HC year 3 AU - JUCO transfer QB (not much better)

HC year 4 AU - JR QB (bad)

HC year 5 AU - rsSoph QB (just ok)

My point is, it's very hard to see where Gus has shown he can "develop" a QB...  His offenses have done well when there's already an established QB in place.  

Gus cannot take credit for Cam and Nick. They both played in different systems before arriving to AU... and they both excelled on pure athleticism.  And... you can't really say Nick progressed from year 1 to year 2.

So really and truly, all we have to go on is Jeremy and Sean.  JJ was a complete disaster under Gus for 4 years... and honestly, I wouldn't say Sean has 'regressed' in 3 years, but he definitely hasn't gotten any better since arriving at AU as a freshman.

Hopefully Chip is gonna be the answer we've been looking for.

In addition to this, Gus can not (IMO) evaluate talented QB candidates out of HS.  Only from a observer's point of view, Gus has relied upon previous years of playing in college competition to know if a QB can fit into his system.  With JJ he totally missed and with Sean, Gus didn't offer until after he won the elite 11 competition, therefore, relying on someone else's evaluation.  I think Gus knows who he wants to run his system, but he has a hard time competing with other schools to get them on campus.

6 hours ago, mikeholiday said:

Gus was so lucky he managed to land a polished Qb recruit of Nick's caliber. Man, every team in the country was just clamoring for his services at QB. What really impressed me was how he managed to keep down his turnovers in Juco. 

 

I'm sure this is a sarcastic statement, so if you believe you can give credit to Gus for developing Nick, how do you explain JFIII?  To your point "every team in the country" wanted him, it's amazing when he picks JUCO players there's really no competition from other P5 schools, it's Auburn or bust.  When he competes with other schools for the services of 4 and 5* QBs, he loses more time than he wins.

Arguably, Gus' job was on the line when he recruited JFIII and he completely whiffed, even after he gave FJIII every opportunity to be the starting QB.  Gus was fortunate to have a 6 game winning streak during the season to keep his job.

I'm looking forward to see what CCL can do with regards to QB evaluation and development from the HS level.

[Tiger Refuge 6,686]

I can't believe I have read through yet another Gus/QB discussion.

 

What is wrong with me? I must have serious issues. 

[AUld fAUx@ 2,584]

11 hours ago, Tiger Refuge said:

That's a really good beer. Wait, what were y'all talking about? Dang it, nevermind.

Sorry – just can’t seem to help myself.

 

“Ghost in the machine” was originally penned by a philosopher in order to illustrate the logical flaw of Cartesian dualism, the separability of “mind” and the “matter” from which mind arises. We sort’a bent the term (as has been done before, e.g., see Arthur Clark and HAL) to refer to inexplicable, anomalous behavior of a previously and more generally well-behaved system. Better, more technically accurate terms in this sense might include “gremlin” (as used in early aviation) or “glitch” (early space program). Really doesn’t matter.

 

Fact is, observation of any anomaly inherently gives rise to differing viewpoints concerning reliability of the system. Clashes between “it’s usually worked” and “how do we know it’ll ever work again?”  do matter to those responsible for operation of the system, but arise naturally, and we shouldn’t mind such conflict. That can of worms is open.

 

Your advice of “nevermind” is well taken. If you don’t mind, I now retire to a beer. Lacking any Parish Brewing products, however, I’ll make do with my can of Pabst.

[McLoofus 35,182]

1 hour ago, Tiger Refuge said:

I can't believe I have read through yet another Gus/QB discussion.

What is wrong with me? I must have serious issues. 

I bet all this "Ghost in the Machine" talk made you thirsty to boot.