SEC Championship Statistical Model

[StatTiger 3,188]

Taking the 13 primary statistical categories, I sorted the average national rankings of the SEC Champions from 2000-2012. I also included the average rankings of Alabama in 2011 since they won the BCSNC that year. The following will show the average national ranking in eaqch statistical category and the number of top-20 and top-10 finishes in each category.

Here are the average rankings of the SECC winners:

Note the top-6 categories. Scoring-defense was No. 1 with an average national ranking of 12.0 from 2000-2012. Eleven teams finished in the nation's top-20 of scoring defense, which included 10 top-10 finishes.

Here are the average rankings of the SECC losers:

The average rankings are obviously lower for the teams that lost the SECC game but the same top-6 categories appear at the top. Scoring-defense, run-defense, pass-efficiency offense, total-defense, scoring-offense and pass-efficiency defense remain the top-6 categories. They might have appeared in a different pecking order than the SECC winner but it's a strong indicator of the priorities required to win the SEC.

In the middle of the 13 statistical categories was turnover-margin for both the winner and the loser of the SECC game. When you consider 34 percent of the games played within the conference (conference games only) have been decided by 7-points or less since 2000, turnovers can make a huge difference as well as special teams. Even though special teams were at the bottom of the 13 categories based on average rankings, punt-return offense and defense topped the other special team categories among the SECCG winners. Once again, special teams is magnified in close games and 1 of every 3 conference games is decided by 7-points or less.

Having an efficient pass-offense and pass-defense has been vital for the elite teams of the SEC. During the last 5 conference championships, the average national ranking of the starting QB's has been 17th nationally. The return of Aaron Murray and A.J. McCarron will make Georgia and Alabama heavy favorites to win their respective Divisions in 2013. Conner Shaw was the No. 10 rated passer nationally for South Carolina and Johnny Manziel was No. 16 for Texas A&M during 2012.

Of the top-6 statistical categories, 4 were on the defensive side of the football. As good as Texas A&M was on offense, they did not field a strong defense during 2012 compared to other SEC teams. They did improve as the season progressed and their current rankings were solid enough to build upon. The Aggies were 57th in total-defense, 26th in scoring-defense, 35th in run-defense and 39th in pass-efficiency defense.

If Auburn is to return to competing for a championship, Gus Malzahn and Ellis Johnson will need to improve the defense. Auburn had a record setting offense during 2010 but were also No. 9 against the run that year. Six teams in the SEC averaged over 400-yards per game on offense, which means defense more than ever is vital for success within the conference.

[AUbritt 611]

Nice. I look forward to improvements in the D!!

[BornAU76 405]

Thanks Stat...and yes, I look forward to a much better D next season as well.

[waspan 0]

I'll go old school on numbers this year... Just "Kick'em in the butt Big Blue"........