Just an interesting note

[COLORADOTIGER 0]

Thanks Shug

[n2hoops 0]

Hey Red (or anybody else in the know),

Do you think the ship has sailed on Jayron Kearse or will Auburn try to flip him back from Miami? 

My personal opinion is that, from our own perspective, I think that ship has sailed and rightfully so. Too bad for him actually. Since we have so few slots for 2013 and we just received a WR commit, I think of the 8 slots remaining most (5 ish) will go to fill defensive needs.

Sorry but I am confused... what do you mean 8 slots remaining? With the five we have are we only signing eight more?

Can I ask again? 

Current seniors 13

13 -  5 = 8

We will definitely sign more than 13 players next year.....I expect a class similar in size to this class - i.e 20-22, with a few counting back to this year's class

[ShugFan 0]

No reason to count back unless we lose about 16 juniors and sophomores.

[AUbritt 611]

So I wasn't online at all this weekend, meaning that when I got on this morning and saw that Kozan had committed, I was a bit giddy. I'll admit that I was somewhat expecting it, but it's an awesome piece of news to receive.

Anyway, I went over to rivals just to check out the new rankings and such, and something caught my eye: after a year in which we signed 13 four stars but only two who were rated better than 5.8 (Avery Young and Jaquay Williams were both 5.9), we've already got commitments from two 6.0 four star players and one 5.9 four star player. Of course, this is early enough on that there's no telling where they'll go from here, but it really stood out to me that we've already got those kind of prospects on board. This may well end up being the best recruiting year we've had...and after the last few years, that's a pretty big statement!

Red, I was thinking that we might get our BCSNC bump a year late since all the negative press really seemed to steal our momentum last year.  We'll see, but I think this could be a stellar year for us recruiting wise.

best year is 3 years out, which would be 2014

Sigh ... don't you get tired of repeating this, Bird. How many times have you and the other mods had to say this? Perhaps we need a reprisal of that thread (I seem to recall one).

By the way, what's up with the spell check? Every word except for 'I' is being underlined.

[AUbritt 611]

So I wasn't online at all this weekend, meaning that when I got on this morning and saw that Kozan had committed, I was a bit giddy. I'll admit that I was somewhat expecting it, but it's an awesome piece of news to receive.

Anyway, I went over to rivals just to check out the new rankings and such, and something caught my eye: after a year in which we signed 13 four stars but only two who were rated better than 5.8 (Avery Young and Jaquay Williams were both 5.9), we've already got commitments from two 6.0 four star players and one 5.9 four star player. Of course, this is early enough on that there's no telling where they'll go from here, but it really stood out to me that we've already got those kind of prospects on board. This may well end up being the best recruiting year we've had...and after the last few years, that's a pretty big statement!

I agree -- a pretty big statement, but also a real possibility!

[kkolumbo 8]

Thanks KKOLUMBO, I appreciate all you do.

so does your mother! Love me some Kendra!

Calm down, don't get me started on Linda.

You started on Linda, I finished on Kendra!!!

[Rednilla 5,403]

So I wasn't online at all this weekend, meaning that when I got on this morning and saw that Kozan had committed, I was a bit giddy. I'll admit that I was somewhat expecting it, but it's an awesome piece of news to receive.

Anyway, I went over to rivals just to check out the new rankings and such, and something caught my eye: after a year in which we signed 13 four stars but only two who were rated better than 5.8 (Avery Young and Jaquay Williams were both 5.9), we've already got commitments from two 6.0 four star players and one 5.9 four star player. Of course, this is early enough on that there's no telling where they'll go from here, but it really stood out to me that we've already got those kind of prospects on board. This may well end up being the best recruiting year we've had...and after the last few years, that's a pretty big statement!

Red, I was thinking that we might get our BCSNC bump a year late since all the negative press really seemed to steal our momentum last year.  We'll see, but I think this could be a stellar year for us recruiting wise.

best year is 3 years out, which would be 2014

Wait a minute.  I thought it was like this;

NC in 2010.   so .... (1) 2011, 2 (2012), 3 (2013)

In any case  THE BEST IS YET TO COME!!!

the recruiting class that was signed 3 weeks after the game had a negligible affect from us winning.  The relationships had already been established and fortified.  The next year, the year which we could claim all year that we were national champs, should be considered year 1. Therefore, the greatest affect on recruiting should be seen in 2014. 

Pretty sure that's innaccurate. You're right about the effect on the following class being negligible, but that's why it's the third year and not the first. For instance, according to rivals.com, Auburn was 10th in recruiting in 2006, two years after the perfect season, 6th in 07, and 20th in 08...

[bigbird 60,624]

the recruiting class that was signed 3 weeks after the game had a negligible affect from us winning.  The relationships had already been established and fortified.  The next year, the year which we could claim all year that we were national champs, should be considered year 1. Therefore, the greatest affect on recruiting should be seen in 2014. 

Pretty sure that's innaccurate. You're right about the effect on the following class being negligible, but that's why it's the third year and not the first. For instance, according to rivals.com, Auburn was 10th in recruiting in 2006, two years after the perfect season, 6th in 07, and 20th in 08...

I did not realize it posted when i hit tab. Here is the full one with records for each year for each team.

Year Champion

Year after champions NC 1 2 3 4

2000- OU

2001 Record 13-0        11-2              12-2       12-2       12-1

Scout

    overall         - 2 3 7 5

    player avg. - 5 3 2 12

Rivals

    overall         - 7 4 8 3

    player avg. - 2* 6 2 6

2001- Miami

2002 Record            12-0                 12-1         11-2           9-3           9-3

                Scout

    overall         4 6 3 12 14

    player avg. 1* 8 5 6 10                            

Rivals   

                    overall         8 5 5 7 14

    player avg. 5 5 9 2 15

2002- Ohio State       

2003 Record             14-0          11-2         8-4            10-2          12-1

                Scout

    overall        25 11 7 13 16

    player avg. 5 12 7 7 5

Rivals

     overall         41 9 12 12 15

    player avg. 11 11 9 8 4

2003- LSU

2004 Record             12-1          9-3           11-2          11-2          13-0

                Scout

    overall         2 19 7 5 7

    player avg. 4 8 9 3 11

Rivals

    overall         2 22 7 4 11

    player avg. 6 4 12 3 9

2004- USC                 

2005 Record             13-0          12-1         11-2          11-2          12-1

                Scout

    overall         6 1 2 9 9

    player avg. 1 1 1 3 1

Rivals

    overall         1 1 2 8 4

    player avg. 1 2 1 2 2

2005- Texas

2006 Record             13-0          10-3          10-3         12-1          13-1

                Scout

    overall         3 3 16 7 3

    player avg. 3 4 6 6 2

Rivals

    overall         5 5 14 5 3

    player avg. 9 5 10 3 2

2006- Florida

2007 Record             13-1          9-4            13-1        13-1

                Sciout

    overall         1 12 22 1

    player avg. 2 7 3 3

Rivals

    overall         1 3 11 2

    player avg. 2 4 1 3

2007- LSU

2008         Record              12-2         7-5           9-4

                Scout

    overall          7 3 7

    player avg. 11 5 12

Rivals

    overall        11 2 6

    player avg. 9 6 6

2008- Florida

2009         Record            13-1          13-1

                Scout

    overall        22 1

    player avg. 8 3

Rivals

    overall         2 2

    player avg. 6 3

2009- Alabama

2010 Record              14-0

                Scout

    overall          4

    player avg. 10

Rivals

    overall         5

    player avg. 4

Scout averages

Year after championship NC 1 2 3 4

overall rank avg.         8.2 7.1 8.4 7.7 9

per player avg.          5 5.9 6.8 4.3 6.8

Rivals averages

overall rank avg.         8.4 6.2 7.6 6.6 8.3

per player avg.         5.9 4.7 6.8 3.3 6.3   

Notes:

NC=national champion.

ESPN rankings were not used because they only go back to 2006 and do not have a per player ranking.

Player average and per player average are in terms on stars per player.

*=Miami and OU were not technically 1 and 2 in star player average in Scout. They were 2 and 5 but were calculated as 1 and 2 for the data because the other 3 teams were new to D-! and only had 1 or 2 recruits. http://recruiting.scout.com/a.z?s=73&p=9&c=14&yr=2002

Conclusions:

1. USC should have never EVER lost a game.

2. If you want to win a national championship you better be no more than 1 state away from the big 4 recruiting states...ie Florida, Texas, California, and Georgia. Ohio state is the only school to win the title in the BCS era and not be no more than a state away from the big 3 states in recruiting.

3. The south is the best area for high school football. It's not just media hype. Again Ohio State is the only exception. You may say Oklahoma but remember OU has Texas and Texas is in the South.

Correlations:

1. There is not consistent evidence to correlate winning a national title with the quality of players that sign 1 season/2nd recruiting class after winning the championship being better than the players signed the same year as winning the Championship. A factor in this could be that the idea of building at least a 2 year relationship with recruits is important does appear to be true.

2. There appears to be a some correlation between winning the championship and signing a better overall class the following year. This point combined with point 1 would seem to indicate the better overall class comes from key players graduating or turning pro more than quality of players coming in. More players are needed thus overall numbers are better.

3. The most interesting correlation to me is that the most dramatic increase in quality of player signed in both Scout and Rivals is in season 3/4th recruiting class after winning the national title. For Auburn that season is 2013-2014 and the year that current Freshmen graduate. So if auburn wins the national title the biggest recruiting jump in quality of player is projected in the 2014 signing class according to the data. If you have any questions or further explanation needed feel free to post them here or PM me. I hope you enjoy. Now I am finally going to eat. lol

[Rednilla 5,403]

Hmm...I don't remember seeing that particular post, but now that I think about it, I remember hearing it. I had heard the third class after winning it all before he ran those numbers, though, so I'm sure that's what I'm thinking about.

[netwitt 1]

This is just my opinion and you are welcome to disagree but with the addition of Van Gorder and Martinez I have noticed bigger names on the D side of the ball having us #1 as their top college choices. With GA and FL being fertile recruiting grounds and these two states being their back yard I hope we get some top names to stack our D.

I agree, I've also noticed a bump with the WR's and QB's taking more interest - possible because of Lefty and his reputation of a QB coach??

[ShugFan 0]

the recruiting class that was signed 3 weeks after the game had a negligible affect from us winning.  The relationships had already been established and fortified.  The next year, the year which we could claim all year that we were national champs, should be considered year 1. Therefore, the greatest affect on recruiting should be seen in 2014. 

Pretty sure that's innaccurate. You're right about the effect on the following class being negligible, but that's why it's the third year and not the first. For instance, according to rivals.com, Auburn was 10th in recruiting in 2006, two years after the perfect season, 6th in 07, and 20th in 08...

I did not realize it posted when i hit tab. Here is the full one with records for each year for each team.

Year Champion

Year after champions NC 1 2 3 4

2000- OU

2001 Record 13-0        11-2              12-2       12-2       12-1

Scout

    overall         - 2 3 7 5

    player avg. - 5 3 2 12

Rivals

    overall         - 7 4 8 3

    player avg. - 2* 6 2 6

2001- Miami

2002 Record            12-0                 12-1         11-2           9-3           9-3

                Scout

    overall         4 6 3 12 14

    player avg. 1* 8 5 6 10                            

Rivals   

                    overall         8 5 5 7 14

    player avg. 5 5 9 2 15

2002- Ohio State       

2003 Record             14-0          11-2         8-4            10-2          12-1

                Scout

    overall        25 11 7 13 16

    player avg. 5 12 7 7 5

Rivals

     overall         41 9 12 12 15

    player avg. 11 11 9 8 4

2003- LSU

2004 Record             12-1          9-3           11-2          11-2          13-0

                Scout

    overall         2 19 7 5 7

    player avg. 4 8 9 3 11

Rivals

    overall         2 22 7 4 11

    player avg. 6 4 12 3 9

2004- USC                 

2005 Record             13-0          12-1         11-2          11-2          12-1

                Scout

    overall         6 1 2 9 9

    player avg. 1 1 1 3 1

Rivals

    overall         1 1 2 8 4

    player avg. 1 2 1 2 2

2005- Texas

2006 Record             13-0          10-3          10-3         12-1          13-1

                Scout

    overall         3 3 16 7 3

    player avg. 3 4 6 6 2

Rivals

    overall         5 5 14 5 3

    player avg. 9 5 10 3 2

2006- Florida

2007 Record             13-1          9-4            13-1        13-1

                Sciout

    overall         1 12 22 1

    player avg. 2 7 3 3

Rivals

    overall         1 3 11 2

    player avg. 2 4 1 3

2007- LSU

2008         Record              12-2         7-5           9-4

                Scout

    overall          7 3 7

    player avg. 11 5 12

Rivals

    overall        11 2 6

    player avg. 9 6 6

2008- Florida

2009         Record            13-1          13-1

                Scout

    overall        22 1

    player avg. 8 3

Rivals

    overall         2 2

    player avg. 6 3

2009- Alabama

2010 Record              14-0

                Scout

    overall          4

    player avg. 10

Rivals

    overall         5

    player avg. 4

Scout averages

Year after championship NC 1 2 3 4

overall rank avg.         8.2 7.1 8.4 7.7 9

per player avg.          5 5.9 6.8 4.3 6.8

Rivals averages

overall rank avg.         8.4 6.2 7.6 6.6 8.3

per player avg.         5.9 4.7 6.8 3.3 6.3   

Notes:

NC=national champion.

ESPN rankings were not used because they only go back to 2006 and do not have a per player ranking.

Player average and per player average are in terms on stars per player.

*=Miami and OU were not technically 1 and 2 in star player average in Scout. They were 2 and 5 but were calculated as 1 and 2 for the data because the other 3 teams were new to D-! and only had 1 or 2 recruits. http://recruiting.scout.com/a.z?s=73&p=9&c=14&yr=2002

Conclusions:

1. USC should have never EVER lost a game.

2. If you want to win a national championship you better be no more than 1 state away from the big 4 recruiting states...ie Florida, Texas, California, and Georgia. Ohio state is the only school to win the title in the BCS era and not be no more than a state away from the big 3 states in recruiting.

3. The south is the best area for high school football. It's not just media hype. Again Ohio State is the only exception. You may say Oklahoma but remember OU has Texas and Texas is in the South.

Correlations:

1. There is not consistent evidence to correlate winning a national title with the quality of players that sign 1 season/2nd recruiting class after winning the championship being better than the players signed the same year as winning the Championship. A factor in this could be that the idea of building at least a 2 year relationship with recruits is important does appear to be true.

2. There appears to be a some correlation between winning the championship and signing a better overall class the following year. This point combined with point 1 would seem to indicate the better overall class comes from key players graduating or turning pro more than quality of players coming in. More players are needed thus overall numbers are better.

3. The most interesting correlation to me is that the most dramatic increase in quality of player signed in both Scout and Rivals is in season 3/4th recruiting class after winning the national title. For Auburn that season is 2013-2014 and the year that current Freshmen graduate. So if auburn wins the national title the biggest recruiting jump in quality of player is projected in the 2014 signing class according to the data. If you have any questions or further explanation needed feel free to post them here or PM me. I hope you enjoy. Now I am finally going to eat. lol

Thanks.  I stand corrected.