Auburn football record prediction

[aurules16 0]

If we see moderate improvement from the defense, and develop a QB, then I think we can win 9-10 games.

[YaBoyMaxWeezy 0]

Well, Red, I think we will be better. Just not enough to win one of the four games against LSU, Alabama, Arkansas, or Georgia. Considering we have no way of knowing the bowl opponent, I don't like penciling in a win there.

Your record doesn't always represent progress or your team's overall strength. But as I said, we have a thousand unknowns. New position coaches, new offense, new defense, no all SEC RB, no proven QB, etc.

That's a lot to deal with. A 7 win regular season doesn't mean I have no faith or hope for the coaches or the program. It just simply means I'm unwilling to place high expectations on a staff that's changing nearly everything. It's not fair to them.

But yeah, it's just, like, my opinion, man. 

It's not fair to degrade them for struggling with such issues, no, but then I've spent a fair portion of the last seven months defending the coaches and players for failing to live up to unreasonable expectations, so it should be obvious that I agree.

It was unreasonable last year. There was too much inexperience and not enough veteran talent to mix with it. This year is different. No, 7-5 is not impossible, but it's scraping the very bottom, IMO. The offense is going to change, but it will be more an evolution than an overhaul. Loeffler has never been a coordinator when he could do things his way, so he doesn't have a set playbook that he has to install, and VanGorder isn't exactly reinventing the wheel if he's going to still run the 4-3.

Every team has issues to deal with in the offseason. That's the natural course of things. All things considered, I've seen far too much good from Chizik to believe he won't have us back on pace in short order.

It's not fair to degrade them for struggling with such issues, no, but then I've spent a fair portion of the last seven months defending the coaches and players for failing to live up to unreasonable expectations, so it should be obvious that I agree.

It was unreasonable last year. There was too much inexperience and not enough veteran talent to mix with it. This year is different. No, 7-5 is not impossible, but it's scraping the very bottom, IMO. The offense is going to change, but it will be more an evolution than an overhaul. Loeffler has never been a coordinator when he could do things his way, so he doesn't have a set playbook that he has to install, and VanGorder isn't exactly reinventing the wheel if he's going to still run the 4-3.

Every team has issues to deal with in the offseason. That's the natural course of things. All things considered, I've seen far too much good from Chizik to believe he won't have us back on pace in short order.

________________________________________________________________________________

Red,

1.) Who is degrading players?

2.) Hasn't Lefty only been an OC for one year?

3.) I can honestly say I'm not the one setting unrealistic expectations, weren't you the one that said we could just as easily win the NC as we could go 8-5? Saying we are going to win 10+ games given the circumstances is unrealistic.

4.) We still have inexperience and not enough veteran talent, so what has changed?

[AuburnNTexas 7,317]

Huge amount of talent on the O-line very little experience. If we can pull it out against Clemson and start gelling early in the O-Line we have a chance to be special this year. I believe we have some studs at RB and are still unknown at QB. That is why the O-Line is the key this year.

We will have more experienced depth in D-line and DB with some top notch talent. LB'rs will be the key to this defense if some young talented players step up early and often we could have a great defense if not we will be better than last years D but not great.

Very tough year to predict because while we have talent and experience in some positions in others we will have talent with limited experience if they gel fast we will be real good if not 2013 is the year.

I am saying 10-12 wins counting bowl game.

I am hoping the are hungry and talent shows through and we pull off a 14-0 season.  If that happens then the country will no longer say the SEC is the best football confernce they will say Alabama is the best football conference because that will be 4 in a row.

[Rednilla 5,447]

Red,

1.) Who is degrading players?

2.) Hasn't Lefty only been an OC for one year?

3.) I can honestly say I'm not the one setting unrealistic expectations, weren't you the one that said we could just as easily win the NC as we could go 8-5? Saying we are going to win 10+ games given the circumstances is unrealistic.

4.) We still have inexperience and not enough veteran talent, so what has changed?

1) No one is degrading the players. I was agreeing with Jonesy that it shouldn't happen if we don't do super well.

2) Yes, he has. And the one year he was an OC, he wasn't able to develop an offense to his own suiting, thus meaning he won't be "installing an offense" so to speak. My point with that was he is going to collaborate with the rest of the offensive coaches and integrate some of his concepts into what we're already doing.

3) I was talking about last year, or did that go over your head?

4) Why do you say we don't have veteran talent? Players with starting experience and their classification:

Clint Moseley, Jr

Emory Blake, Sr

Philip Lutzenkirchen, Sr

Onterio McCalebb, Sr

Jared Cooper, Sr

Reese Dismukes, So

Corey Lemonier, Jr

Nosa Eguae, Jr

Jeffrey Whittaker, Jr

Ken Carter, Jr

Jake Holland, Jr

Daren Bates, Sr

Jonathan Evans, Sr

Rah Rah White, So

Demetruce McNeal, Jr

Chris Davis, Jr

That looks like a lot of upper classmen with a fair amount of experience to me.

Now, come on guys, I'm not saying Auburn is going to win it all. As a matter of fact, I said it was just as likely that they would win it all as it is that they will go 7-5...and if you haven't noticed, I REALLY don't think they are going to go 7-5, so what does that say about my thoughts on winning the NC?

8-9 wins is a fair prediction if you're talking about going into the bowl game. Personally, I put the over and under at 9. I think 10 is very attainable, and I don't think 11 is out of the question.

But I guess I'm just a delusional homer for thinking that an actual fan would see things as being so bleak that we will lose 5 games.

[Rednilla 5,447]

Well you're certainly taking an emotional approach to predicting some numbers, and there's nothing I can do to try to better explain what I'm saying if that's the case. They're just numbers. Numbers based on legitimate concerns that I think most of us are comfortable identifying.

And I'll state it again, using a W/L record to measure progress is very primitive. Trying to say I or anyone else is downgrading the quality of our program based on that isn't something I can help. That's not my problem that W/L records in transitional periods are what you're focusing on.

Gonna have to keep to the recruiting board if varying opinions can't be handled. You don't see me critiquing or downgrading anyone else's predictions just because they don't reflect my faith or whatever.

They are legitimate concerns, and I didn't remember to put in there that there are still struggles ahead, because if I didn't think such then I would be predicting a national championship.

And no, win/loss records are not the end all measure of success, but...well, we'll just have to agree to disagree. If all you can see is numbers, then I guess you're right and I'm not thinking logically at all.

[C'viewTiger 247]

We also lost to LSU by 21 in 09 and came back in 2010 to win by a touchdown. So does that mean we were 28 points better? Or just the 17 points better that we were against Kentucky?

Don't forget that we took a knee at the LSU 1-ft line and ran out time rather than adding a TD. 

[Jonesy 1]

If all you can see is numbers,

These are my quotes on numbers, since, well, records are numbers after all.

Your record doesn't always represent progress or your team's overall strength.

using a W/L record to measure progress is very primitive.

These quotes alone, it would seem as if numbers hasn't been what I've focused on at all. On the contrary, you're caught up in progress on the field translating into Wins and Losses (Records, numbers). That's valid, of course, because it doesn't matter how great your team is progressing if the Wins never come about. But all being said, I think next year we'll see significant improvement, regardless of the Wins and Losses (Records, numbers). I think I said 7 or 8 wins. The swing between the 7 and 8 is obviously Clemson. Our W/L record (numbers) depends on other teams as well, which is why I tend to throw it out in transitional years. We're going to face Alabama, LSU, Arkansas, and Georgia again. You can pull up all the past examples of one season turnarounds as you want, but none of them have contained this staff and these players. Looking them over, we've never faced an SEC WEst as competitive as it is today. All of the teams that beat us did so handedly, and none of them will be significantly worse this upcoming season.  Mean while, Auburn is going through the most changes it has experienced since Tuberville's departure. We have a favorable schedule in terms of home games, but that's where the favorable part stops. Those are four potentially top 10 teams.

Now, I'm certainly not saying that Auburn is incapable of beating any of those teams. However, as explained, regardless of your faith, the facts remain that we have legitimate concerns to deal with. It's nice to say we've beaten the odds in the past, on multiple occasions but that doesn't mean anything for this upcoming season. Much like last season, we return a lot of young kids again, and much like last season, they're going to face as tough of competition as any Auburn team has ever faced in the past. And perhaps, unlike last season, they'll pull some wins where we're not expected to. However, placing unfair expectations on a staff and team facing potentially more adversity than last season is not logical in my opinion. I think 2013 will be a breakout season to which I'm sure you'll find my predictions more to your liking. Regardless, I'll be in the stands or on my couch yelling, screaming, stomping, and in auburn fashion, pulling my remaining hairs out. And finally, as an Auburn fan, there is nothing more than I would love to be wrong about this upcoming season.

Cheers to you and the 2012 football season.

[YaBoyMaxWeezy 0]

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JONESY my man! If Red or anybody else does not agree with everything that was just written there, then I just give up. Well written brotha!!!

[Jonesy 1]

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JONESY my man! If Red or anybody else does not agree with everything that was just written there, then I just give up. Well written brotha!!!

Dpn't let my response fool you. I hold a great amount of respect for red and he is as entitled to his opinion as anyone. Don't instigate.

[chimesAU 89]

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JONESY my man! If Red or anybody else does not agree with everything that was just written there, then I just give up. Well written brotha!!!

Dpn't let my response fool you. I hold a great amount of respect for red and he is as entitled to his opinion as anyone. Don't instigate.

I thought the same thing. Let's not turn this into one person vs. another or a "Ha! Told you so" type thing. I have a ton of respect for some of the guys who contribute valuable info to this site and I don't like them being called out by name like that. If we all agreed with each other all the time this would be a boring place. I love the differing viewpoints...I feel like I learn more that way( if that makes sense). Very classy, Jonesy.

[devtiger12 0]

here is the problem, as ive stated before we have lost 5 or more games 3 out of the last 4 seasons.  2012 HAS GOT TO BE BETTER, 7-8 wins isn't going to cut it. Thats mediocre you think lsu,UAT, Florida fans sit around saying "oh well 7-8 wins is good for us"? hell no they fire their head coaches for that! People have got to start raising their expectations about this program or we will never be a constant top 10 team. period.....rant over  :pcprobs: :pcprobs:

[Rednilla 5,447]

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JONESY my man! If Red or anybody else does not agree with everything that was just written there, then I just give up. Well written brotha!!!

Give up. I guarantee you that I'm more hard headed than you are.

Seriously though, I don't disagree with his points, only his conclusion; and even that is not too far off. I've got us at 9 wins, plus or minus one. He's got us at 7-8 wins. Both of us are talking about regular season. I think that between the improvement we are bound to make in having as much experience from last year coming back and the upgrades on the defensive coaching staff, we're going to improve enough to beat at least one of those four SEC teams that beat us last year. I'll be honest: I'm more worried about Clemson than I am Arkansas or Georgia because we play them without a tuneup game. Reminds me too much of the 03 season opener.

Oh, for the record, I wasn't questioning Jonesy's fanhood, because I've had enough interaction with him over a long enough period of time to know better; I was more in disbelief that he would set such a low standard. He explained it, and I respect his opinion even if I don't agree with all of it.

[YaBoyMaxWeezy 0]

Good talk tho, I'm sure our readers have learned a lot

[chimesAU 89]

I know I have. Jonesy and Red both bring a TON of valuable info/opinions to the boards. First class, both of them.

[chimesAU 89]

Back to the record predictions... I'm thinking 9 regular season wins but I'm too tired to give any justification for my pick. I'll be thrilled to win 10 regular season and a little bummed if we only get 7 or 8.

[AUFriction 1,179]

Clemson: Could go either way due to new coaches/young players.IFFY

Miss St: Lost a bunch of people this year. WIN

ULM: Give me game. WIN

LSU:Lost a bunch of people, but had several young contributors last year. IFFY

Arky: Lost top impact players on offense and defense. Can't play on the road. WIN

Ole Miss: New overrated coach and no talent this year. WIN

Vandy:This game may make us nervous, but we should handle business int he fourth quarter. WIN

aTm: pshhhh. they don't belong in the sec. WIN

NMSU: give me game. WIN

UGA:This one could go either way. UGA showed flashes last year, but we have them at home. IFFY

Bama a&m:give me game. WIN

Bama: Struggled offensively most of last year with, in my opinion, the best running back in the country. Lost several impact juniors and seniors on offense and defense. Probable WIN

I'd say 9-3 is more than likely the worst we can do next year. Personally, I think we were a better team last year than people think. We just had inconsistant play in key places when it mattered (O-line, D-line, Secondary, QB) and choked in the big games.

O-line will be starting a few young guys next year, but should be better than last year's. Our center has a year under his belt. I think Slade will probably move to tackle (where I think he will be more comfortable). Westerman will probably secure one guard spot. Mack/Sullen will fight for the other. Robinson/Sullen may fight for the other tackle spot. With experience at the anchor positions, they should help the newcomers adapt better. Having a freshman center and an injured left tackle last year really hurt our o-line.

TE/FB: with Prosch & Lutz, we should have one of the best te/fb units in the country.

WR: Some guys need to step up, but I think that year of seasoning will be beneficial. I'd guess that the light comes on for benton and blake takes the other position. Bray/Reed/stallworth will duke it out for the slot positions

HB: I think there is no question that we are in excellent shape here.

QB: Some say Frazier, but I say Moseley. Moseley played well for his first two games. He looked rattled after being smacked around at LSU. I believe Moseley got shaken up because of poor O-line play. If we protect him and establish the run (which loeffler already said is his goal), Moseley will make a great pocket passer (especially after working with Loeffler). I also think he would work a little better in some of our pro formations that will be more common next year. Frazier will be darn good one day, but let's be realistic. The guy has thrown like 5 passes downfield and completed 0 of them.

D-line loses nobody and will be another year seasoned. There is no way they don't improve.

Linebackers: If you read carefully with what VG said, he claimed that he wanted to start RECRUITING bigger linebackers. He didn't say anything about needing them right away. Because of that, I say bates stays at LB and provides depth/experience. I think the light was starting to come on for him late last year. Holland and Evans will play next to him. Frost and White will see frequent snaps though.

CB: We have great corners that have been taught poor technique by Lolley. A few adjustments by CWM, and Davis/Bell will be significantly better.

S: Florence & Mcneal should be great

K/P: No question marks here. Both are talented

KR/PR: This aspect of the game will only get better for us.

I'd say we have the potential to go all the way next year if the guys want it bad enough and don't choke on the impact games like they did this year.

[Guest shadoww]

it will be 8-5 for the 3rd time in gene's 4 years by the end of the season. this is after 3 years back to back to back top 10 recruiting classes. the qb development will be very critical.

[auburn4ever 1,266]

If we go 8-5 in 2012, it will mark the 3rd time in coach Chizik's 4 years that we ended up at 8-5. Would the Auburn family be happy with another 8 win season?

[C'viewTiger 247]

If we go 8-5 in 2012, it will mark the 3rd time in coach Chizik's 4 years that we ended up at 8-5. Would the Auburn family be happy with another 8 win season?

Happy?  NO, but if one of those wins is a 'TURD Flushing' it sure will make it easier to stomach.

[AUByrne13 0]

If we go 8-5 in 2012, it will mark the 3rd time in coach Chizik's 4 years that we ended up at 8-5. Would the Auburn family be happy with another 8 win season?

I wouldn't be happy but I def would not be calling for Coach Chizik's head either. I love him as our coach and I believe he's doing everything he can for our program. What he has done already in this offseason has spoken volumes to me.

[AUFriction 1,179]

If we go 8-5 in 2012, it will mark the 3rd time in coach Chizik's 4 years that we ended up at 8-5. Would the Auburn family be happy with another 8 win season?

Happy? Not exactly. I don't really see it happening. With the talent we have coming back and the fact that it is now seasoned and developed, we should see improvement next year. With the new coaching staff and improvements in the coaches where they were needed, we should see improvement next year. In other words, we should see SIGNIFICANT improvement next year. There should be no excuse for any blowout losses.

However, football is a game of inches, seconds, and luck. If everything goes wrong in every game, it is possible that any team could go 8-5 in any season. Therefore, I wouldn't criticize Chizik or call for his head because of an 8-5 record. However, I expect to see a significantly better team, and I expect to see few (if any) blowout losses next year. If we get blown out by multiple teams or don't look better, criticism might be worth consideration.

[TigerWar 82]

HOME GAMES ALL CAPS

Sep. 1 (GA Dome) Clemson - Loss

Sep. 8 Mississippi St. - Win

Sep. 15 LA-MONROE - Win

Sep. 22 LSU - Loss

Oct. 6 ARKANSAS - Win

Oct. 13 Ole Miss - Win

Oct. 20 Vanderbilt - Win

Oct. 27 TEXAS A&M - Win

Nov. 3 NEW MEXICO ST. - Win

Nov. 10 GEORGIA - Loss

Nov. 17 ALABAMA A&M - Win

Nov. 24 Alabama - Loss

I have us finishing the regular season at a commendable 8-4 with a hard run at a championship coming in '13.

[TigerWar 82]

I predicted Auburn to go undefeated in 2004.  I was right.

I predicted Auburn to go undefeated in 2008.  (Cough...)  I was wrong.

I predicted Auburn to go undefeated in 2010.  I was right. 

My early prediction this year: Auburn will go undefeated in 2012. 

(I do retain the right to change my mind depending on injuries, attrition, etc... before the season begins.)

I kind of get the feeling that you predict Auburn to go undefeated every year.

[TigerWar 82]

Ok, explain how anyone picks the 8-9 category when our schedule is more favorable and team more mature.  I am not fussing at you either, just wondering the rationale.  Our schedule last year was brutal compared to next season.

Our losses last year were by a big margin so even with improvement we could still have the same losses we did last year.  Plus it's difficult to pull off 10 wins in the SEC with a veteran team.

Worst case 7-5

Best case 10-2

My prediction 9-3

All but one of those losses was on the road in a hostile environment with a young team. They did a lot of growing up last year, the schedule is far more favorable, and the teams that beat us badly all lost more than we did in the offseason. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but Auburn can definitely run the table this year.

I just don't see a way we run the table. Unless Frazier just comes out and plays like Cam 2.0. UGA, Bama, and LSU will all be very strong again this year. I don't really see us winning those three games but Bama is always a toss up game. I think we can beat Arkansas at home with a bye week right before it.

But I still have a really good feeling about this year.

I always have a good feeling about Auburn football, but then the reality of our quarterback situation comes to the forefront and I realize that we're simply not there yet.

[AUFriction 1,179]

Ok, explain how anyone picks the 8-9 category when our schedule is more favorable and team more mature.  I am not fussing at you either, just wondering the rationale.  Our schedule last year was brutal compared to next season.

Our losses last year were by a big margin so even with improvement we could still have the same losses we did last year.  Plus it's difficult to pull off 10 wins in the SEC with a veteran team.

Worst case 7-5

Best case 10-2

My prediction 9-3

All but one of those losses was on the road in a hostile environment with a young team. They did a lot of growing up last year, the schedule is far more favorable, and the teams that beat us badly all lost more than we did in the offseason. I'm not saying it's going to happen, but Auburn can definitely run the table this year.

I just don't see a way we run the table. Unless Frazier just comes out and plays like Cam 2.0. UGA, Bama, and LSU will all be very strong again this year. I don't really see us winning those three games but Bama is always a toss up game. I think we can beat Arkansas at home with a bye week right before it.

But I still have a really good feeling about this year.

I always have a good feeling about Auburn football, but then the reality of our quarterback situation comes to the forefront and I realize that we're simply not there yet.

In my honest opinion, I think it's hard to judge QB play from last year. We had no O-line. Our playcalling was predictable. Our running game was less effective (dyer's average per carry went down significantly from 2010).  Our recievers were either injured (blake & reed) or inconsistant (everyone else). I think a more productive O-line, more experienced recievers, a better running attack (which would come from a better o-line), and less predictable (i.e. running the ball on first and second down and throwing only on third) play calling would make a huge difference in the passing game. Moseley looked decently good in the games that he wasn't being hit non-stop (UF & Ole Miss). If we protect him better, we may not have a super explosive passing game, but, with a good running attack, we should have an adequate passing game.