AUwent

On 8/2/2021 at 6:13 PM, Beaker said:

Let's agree to let this go.  Playing 9 SEC teams is organically a Big Boy football schedule.   But within those 9 games are probably a 100 ways to organize pods and schedules.   I am just saying, Auburn typically has the hardest road to ATL and I am tired of it.  How bout the SEC give us the 2nd or 3rd or 4th hardest road to the ATL?   That is all I am saying.  

 

 

 

Tell that to some of our fans here, evidently.

1 hour ago, JBiGGiE said:

Yup, gotta have balance. Otherwise you end up with players showing up to practice when they feel like it. Or dancing on the sidelines when you're losing to the worst team in the East division...

 

Wait we did this during the 2018 Tennessee game? lol

Rooting hard for Boise. Nothing personal against Gus it’d just be nice to see that CBH left them in good shape.

11 minutes ago, AuCivilEng1 said:

Being in the ACC would absolutely kill our recruiting. Being an SEC team is the only thing keeping our head above water. There is no escaping this. The SEC is expanding with teams that WILL out recruit Auburn on a regular basis. We may be a relatively not thought about team on a national level, now. But in 2025 we are going to become a not thought about team, in our own conference, most likely.

If that’s the case why do we even bother to have a football program…

Seriously though, it depends ENTIRELY on how the scheduling shakes out. Those power rankings posted recently made it sound like we’d somehow still be in the west with the addition of TX and OK, and that’s just dishonest framing.

14 minutes ago, woodford said:

People who are excited about this are not thinking long term. They're getting caught in the excitement. 95% of this site has not admitted to themselves that Auburn will become the definition of an average CFB program post 2025. 

I want to move to the ACC. $ will keep that from happening but I'd like to see us avoid falling back to the '70s.

2 hours ago, AuCivilEng1 said:

Auburn being in the SEC has given us an enormous advantage in the region. I’m telling you guys now, this may help everyone financially, but adding blue bloods to the conference like this is going to hurt us. I guess you’d rather be in the new Super SEC than out of it. But, man I hope Harsin pans out to be one of those transcendent best coach we’ve ever had type hires, if this is what we are going to be competing with in conference play. 

The hope is that we won't have to play a uniquely tough schedule in the SEC anymore. Obviously I've been worried about us becoming like the Vawls, but I'm trying to find the positive?

8 minutes ago, WFE12 said:

They no longer have TJ so I wonder how the backup does.

The last time this happened to them, their version of Cam Newton fell into their lap.

2 hours ago, Beaker said:

Oooh; I don't think playing any 9 game SEC schedule is cupcake.   I doubt you do, but maybe.   Not sure how you can play 9 SEC games and some easy OOC games and call it a cupcake sched.   Yes,   I agree 'steel sharpens steel,' but I hope Auburn fights tooth and nail to not let us get roped into a schedule where we play the hardest SEC sched every year and find ourselves on the bubble every year.   That very well could happen I am afraid. 

You said OU would have more losses and I said the same.  We are saying the same thing.  Going from zero to 3 losses is 'racking them up' relatively speaking.   Let's not argue semantics.  Silliness. 

Auburn has been playing big boy FB for decades and that is not going to change.  Nobody wants that to change...As I will say for the last time, there is no sense in Auburn getting wrangled into the hardest schedule of the SEC for 'tradition sake'.  This could happen because we have a dramatic history and if you are TV execs building schedules with the SEC office would you rather have Auburn or USCe  playing UF, thUGA, bama and LSU each year?  Auburn is sexy draw for ratings, the data has shown that.   

We have to have a mindset of how do we win 12 of 15 games and have gas in the tank when we have say 15 min left to play,  of the championship game (or maybe 1 min left and our opponent has the ball with heisman QB driving...).   Do we want to stumble across the finish line or  race through and grab the prize?   

 

Anyhow...good some good banter and I am sure the SEC office is inundated with programs wanting to influence the schedule process.   I hope and pray Auburn is doing the same. 

 

Best case scenario would be we end up in a pod with UAT, Tennessee and Vandy, and alternate between everyone else. Play two cupcakes a year.

The absolute nightmare scenario would be FSU and Clemson joining too, divisions are kept, and we stay in the west because gotta keep our rivalry with UAT, Missouri stays in the east, and permanent cross-division rivalries are kept. I sincerely doubt this happens, but I would not put it past the SEC to set a scheduling format this atrocious. I WILL quit following CFB if this is what they go with.

If we absolutely MUST go with abolishing cupcakes, this is how it should play out:

https://www.secrant.com/rant/sec-football/the-perfect-scheduling-solution/97506952/

Mind you, I still think it would be a bad idea--do you really think we'd have the depth for that schedule like UAT and UGA would? I fear inequality would be exacerbated.

Hope Albert can take us up a few more spots.

10 hours ago, Paladin said:

 

Albert isn't a 4*, though?

EDIT: Rivals, my bad.

4 hours ago, oracle79 said:

Instead of starting another thread, does anyone know if @StatTiger does these kind of analyses any more?

His last sentences are pretty informative:

"When I first began to track these numbers, it was only for Auburn's roster. During the Tuberville era, his better teams came during years he had a high number of experienced players to make up for a lack of overall talent. From 2004-2015, Auburn has compiled a record of 67-12 during the 6 seasons they had at least 20 players with 20-gms of experience and at least 10 players with 30+ gms of experience. During the six seasons they did not, they compiled a record of 39-36"

So, will there be a season coming up soon where that’s the case?

1 hour ago, Brad_ATX said:

There's no TV money in cupcake games and AU loses ticket revenue from them.  Get rid of them and you can get a whole lot more from the networks.

Also, those games blow.

If every team ends up playing 11-12 quality games per year, then us seemingly "needing" those soft games just says volumes about our program.

Because of how brutal a conference this is? We CURRENTLY play one of the top five toughest schedules in the nation each year. There’s the chance for that to even out, but I have the nagging suspicion the SEC will try to screw us (see that 10 SEC game pod system that had us playing UAT, UGA, and UF every year). People are for this but then complain about how tough our schedule is. The dissonance is mind boggling.

I see the most recent 247 CB was to us. Both UF predictions were in Jan/Feb. Rivals still says he's all UF though?

Alright, I can now say we're headed in the right direction.

3 hours ago, ellitor said:

@Beaker That's not the long term plan on OOC games FWIW. The plan is to go down to 1 or no cupcake OOC games.

Wouldn't it be two? We NEED a few cupcake OOC games! Sorry, but all of our best seasons in the last 30 years have come when we've had a pretty manageable OOC schedule. Between 1993, 2004, 2010 and 2013, our best regular season OOC opponents were 6-7 Clemson and Wazzu.

Well, at least we'd (probably) no longer be playing a much tougher schedule than everyone else...right?

Kumbaya?

5 hours ago, Mikey said:

On the other hand:

LSU was 5-5 last season and we beat them 48-11. I don't see that as a loss this time. (Yes, we finally beat the "cigar jinx")

If we are improved at all, Arky and Ol' Miss should be wins.

A&M....Did Jimbo peak there last year? This one could be tough.

Penn State: Was 4-5 last year and they didn't beat a team with a winning record. Based on that alone, I expect to win this one.

Bammer and UGA: Both at home. We are 3-1 against those two in the last four home games. That doesn't make us beating them this year likely, but it certainly indicates that AU beating them is possible.

Before we all start making "official" predictions I'd like to see how camp and fall practice turn out. A rash of injuries could change a lot.

I see anywhere from 5-7 to 9-3. I obviously haven't always agreed with you but I think you're right that if people are using last year's performance as a cause for pessimism (which I think is somewhat understandable) than you can't just assume LSU and PSU are going to be world beaters like many seem to think.

49 minutes ago, ellitor said:

To us older fans It's not a true rivalry. At least not like Bama & UGA is. Almost every power in the conference would have to give up their 3rd biggest rivals to playing them in 2 of 4 years for the sake of competitive balance in this format.

And even now it’s nowhere near what it was during the Tubs era.

4 minutes ago, ValleyTiger said:

Naw, they won't do it exactly bc LSU and Bama would b*tch like crazy that theirs is unfair.

LSU maybe but I think UAT would be okay with it.

I really have no earthly idea what’s actually going to be adopted (don’t think anyone else does!).

1 hour ago, autiger88 said:

I get that I just like the game it's more exciting to me then Mississippi State will ever be especially after the Cam situation just don't care for them. Wish we didn't even give them the time of day plus you talking about LSU being tough for us well hell we are tough on MST it's the same boat just looking at a different direction 🤷 

Our record vs MST is 62-21 or something like that.

Vs LSU 23-31-1 it's a lot closer then our record vs MSST. Yes we are on the losing end against LSU but still it's an all around better game too me.

Hmm…MSU *does* get the short end of the stick in the original post but Valley’s edit had them playing OM and KY. It’s such a good proposal that I’m sure the SEC won’t do it.

It's not like we'd be going six years on average without playing anyone. With this 3-6/6 format (similar to how it would be with pods anyways) we'd alternate between LSU and Florida.

5 minutes ago, autiger88 said:

Why Mississippi State for us I would rather have LSU 🤷

>Complain about having the toughest schedule in the nation every year

>Beg to keep Georgia and LSU as permanent opponents and to play big OOC opponents

JABA

***

Sadly the LSU rivalry is nowhere near what it was in the aughts. Even when we were both ranked in the top 15 going into the 2018 game we couldn’t pack the stadium for it. No one really cares about it anymore.

And we played Florida every year since what, the 30s? Didn’t stop the league from ending that series.

5 hours ago, AuCivilEng1 said:

I can’t help but feel like we are about to be on an extended stay at the dead middle of the conference, and it won’t be because of coaching. Jeeez, Gus did a number on me. 
 

I have concerns about exposure for Auburn. 
 

1. It seems like ESPN is becoming increasingly more involved and influential when it comes to the decisions made in college football. We all know that as far as ESPN is concerned, Auburn has little to no value to them. It looks like college football is quickly becoming a big national market driven sport. The nationally known teams are going to be the focus, no matter what. 
 

2. Adding UT and Ok to the mix and possibly FSU and Clemson down the road, where does it leave teams like Auburn when it comes to to nationally televise games? Will you ever see Auburn vs MSU or Auburn vs Tennessee anything other than the SEC network or ESPN3 anymore?? 
 

3. Im interested to see how the scheduling is done. If we move east, who becomes Auburn’s permanent West opponents? Who becomes Alabama’s, Uga, FL? Watch this more. This will tell you a lot about where the conference is trying to drive the sport. 

IF we keep the two division east-west system, the only way permanent cross-div opponents stay will be if UAT wants to keep the LSU rivalry. I hope it doesn't work that way, but it's not like UAT would be getting the easy way out unless LSU pulls a Tennessee. I'm GUESSING they would give us A&M in that case--fairly equivalent all-time standing.

The BEST case scenario would be getting UAT, Tennessee and Vandy as our permanent opponents and having everyone else be rotating.

2 hours ago, ValleyTiger said:

With the addition of the Sooners and Longhorns, Auburn and Bama moving to the East sounds good, but the divisions are broken bc we'll play the other side so infrequently. The 4 team pods always seems to have one super easy pod.

Bill Cameron of The Drive proposed a model similar to how the conference currently does basketball....no divisions - 3 permanent opponents and flip the remaining 12 opponents 6/6 every year with a 9 game conference schedule.

That allows for more matchups with the remainder of the conference more frequently and preserves traditional rivalries that make CFB great. 

It'll take some tweaking of the 3 permanent opponents, but by playing the rest of the conference more often it does make more balanced than even our current division system.

*there's a few errors in Bill's schedule but you get the idea below:

 

I agree about this negating one of the pods being too weak, though the pod system practically would do this anyway. I could grudgingly take this setup as long as it’s nine games--we'll still have the toughest set of rotating opponents but the gap will be narrowed by sheer virtue of the teams rotating much faster.

HEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEELLLLLLLLLLLLLLLLL NO on 10--so, I'm sure the SEC will take 10 to spite us.

For those predicting we go 6-6 at best and "just hope we're competitive," when do you think we should expect actual results? We'd better not be depending on immediate success for recruiting success. Can next year be any better? If not, the year after that? I'm just curious what people's take on what I have in my signature is.